Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1215 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

.UPDATE...
QUICK UPDATE TO DROP MORNING WORDING. FEW OTHER COSMETIC
CHANGES.
&&

.PREVIOUS FORECAST...
DYING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER NORTH GEORGIA APPEARS TIED TO A SHORT
WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE AS SEEN IN WV IMAGERY AND SHORT RANGE
MODELS. EXPECT PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARD SUNRISE.

MODELS MORE CONSISTENT THAN SAME TIME LAST NIGHT. HOWEVER, SAME
PROBLEM EXITS OF GFS BEING FASTER AND ETA SLOWER. CONTINUE TO FAVOR
GFS SOLUTION.

OVERALL LITTLE CHANGE IN WEATHER TODAY. A WEAK SURFACE RIDGE
SANDWICHED BETWEEN GASTON AND APPROACHING FRONT. GASTON WILL GO INTO
SOUTH CAROLINA AND THEN HEAD NORTH. THE FRONT WILL MOVE INTO
NORTHWEST GEORGIA TONIGHT...MOVE SOUTH, AND STALL IN SOUTH GEORGIA
TUESDAY. TEMPS AND PRECIPITATION WILL AGAIN BE REALLY EFFECTED BY
SQUEEZE BETWEEN THE SYSTEMS. APPEARS FROM PAST FEW DAYS MOS GUIDANCE
OVER DONE...SO DOWN PLAYED. WILL FAVOR WEST SIDE OF STATE AWAY FROM
GASTON INDUCED SUBSIDENCE.

SURFACE WIND FIELD WILL BE CHAOTIC AND LIGHT DUE TO BEING BETWEEN
THE TWO SYSTEMS. TEMPERATURES ARE RUNNING ABOVE GUIDANCE...DUE TO
SUBSIDENCE? WILL RUN AT OR ABOVE GUIDANCE.

EXTENDED NOT CHANGED FROM PREVIOUS.
FRONT STALLS OVER SOUTH GEORGIA AND PERSIST INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTHWEST.

ALOFT A WAVE IN THE NORTH STREAM MOVES ACROSS TO NORTH OF US AND
INTO NEW ENGLAND BY WEEKS END. THIS ALLOWS A RIDGE TO REASSERT
ITSELF ALOFT. NEXT TROPICAL SYSTEM MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON THE STATE
BY NEXT WEEKEND...BUT THAT IS A LONG WAY OFF. OTHERWISE IN GENERAL
WILL BE SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP EACH AFTERNOON.

FOLLOWED GUIDANCE ON TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION...
SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS 5000-10000 FT WILL BE THE MAIN CLOUD
LAYER. SOME CU WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE 3000-5000 FT RANGE WITH
POSSIBLE BROKEN CEILINGS AFTER SUNRISE. SOME MVFR VSBYS DUE TO
HAZE/F UNTIL MID MORNING...LEAST LIKELY AT ATL. SURFACE WIND
DIRECTION STILL A PROBLEM. DIRECTIONS FLOPPING AROUND FROM W TO N TO
E. WITH WEAK GRADIENT BETWEEN APPROACHING FRONT AND GASTON ALONG
THE SC COAST...THE VARIABILITY OF THE WIND DIRECTION WILL LIKELY
CONTINUE TODAY. POTENTIAL FOR STORMS TO FLARE UP ON THE WEST SIDE OF
GA WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. BDL

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-291600-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
500 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE OVER WEST GEORGIA...

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT OVER THE OHIO AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS WILL
MOVE INTO FAR NORTHWEST GEORGIA LATE TONIGHT.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...
THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS. LIGHTNING...HEAVY RAIN AND SMALL HAIL CAN ALSO BE
EXPECTED FROM THE STRONGEST STORMS. THE BEST LOCATION FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEST OF GAINESVILLE TO MACON. THE BEST TIME
FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.DISCUSSION...
A MOIST AIRMASS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE REGION. CAPES OF 1000 TO 1500
CAN BE EXPECTED. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOPMENT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT. SOME OF
THE STORMS WILL LIKELY BECOME STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE IF THE
AIRMASS BECOMES UNSTABLE ENOUGH. ALSO...THE STORMS WILL BE SLOW
MOVING WHICH COULD CAUSE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF ANY SEVERE STORMS...SPOTTER ACTIVATION
IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR THE
SITUATION.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL GEORGIA EACH
DAY AND LESS SO OVER NORTH GEORGIA.

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

BDL

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
219 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

GAZ066-067-291900-
219 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN TROUP AND
MERIWETHER COUNTIES UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 215 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR SHOWED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS FROM AROUND LUTHERSVILLE TO MOUNTVILLE...MOVING
SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

THESE STORMS HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 1 TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS OVER THE
NEXT HOUR. DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE RAINFALL MAY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS ALSO LIKELY.