Severe Thunderstorm Warning 122, NWS Atlanta, GA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
300 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

.SHORT TERM...WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA REMAIN QUITE
UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON WITH WEAK CAPPING. STRONG AFTERNOON HEATING
HAS SUCCEDED IN POKING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THIS CAP. SHOULD
SEE SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA INTO THE EVENING. FURTHER EAST THE CAP IS STRONGER...WITH ONLY A
FEW ISOLATED STORMS EXPECTED. UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS SAT OVER THE
REGION THROUGH THE WEEKEND BREAKS DOWN WEDNESDAY AS THE TAIL END OF
A WEAK TROUGH MOVES INTO THE AREA. AT THE SURFACE...WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE RETREATS SOUTHWARD INTO FLORIDA AS A WEAK FRONT SLIPS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS PROVIDES ENOUGH FOCUS FOR WIDER
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION WEDNESDAY. WILL KEEP POPS AT CHANCE CATEGORY
FOR NOW. UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST THURSDAY AS SURFACE BOUNDARY
BEGINS WASHING OUT OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTH GEORGIA. UPPER RIDGE
BEGINS BUILDING BACK STRONG OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. BY THE
WEEKEND. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE A LITTLE WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY
WITH INCREASED CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION COVERAGE. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS...BUT I WILL DROP THE
MENTION OF HEAT HIGH INDICES IN THE SOUTHEAST FOR NOW.

.LONG TERM...LARGE UPPER RIDGE DOMINATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. WILL GO WITH A DRY AND HOT SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
WITH SOUTHERLY SURFACE FLOW RETURNING AND UPPER RIDGE WEAKENING A
LITTLE...I WILL LET THE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED DIURNAL CONVECTION
CREEP BACK IN FOR THE END OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.

&&

.....OPTIONAL SECTIONS.....
.FIRE WEATHER...NO ISSUES.
&&
.HYDROLOGY...NO ISSUES.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
ATLANTA     73 89 71 89 / 30 40 20 30
ATHENS      71 89 69 89 / 20 40 20 30
GAINESVILLE 71 88 69 88 / 20 40 20 30
ROME        71 89 68 90 / 30 50 20 30
COLUMBUS    74 91 72 93 / 30 40 20 30
MACON       72 92 71 92 / 20 30 20 30
&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

 20

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
615 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-061600-
BALDWIN-BANKS-BARROW-BARTOW-BIBB-BLECKLEY-BUTTS-CARROLL-CATOOSA-
CHATTAHOOCHEE-CHATTOOGA-CHEROKEE-CLARKE-CLAYTON-COBB-COWETA-CRAWFORD-
CRISP-DADE-DAWSON-DE KALB-DODGE-DOOLY-DOUGLAS-EMANUEL-FANNIN-FAYETTE-
FLOYD-FORSYTH-GILMER-GLASCOCK-GORDON-GREENE-GWINNETT-HALL-HANCOCK-
HARALSON-HARRIS-HEARD-HENRY-HOUSTON-JACKSON-JASPER-JEFFERSON-JOHNSON-
JONES-LAMAR-LAURENS-LUMPKIN-MACON-MADISON-MARION-MERIWETHER-MONROE-
MONTGOMERY-MORGAN-MURRAY-MUSCOGEE-NEWTON-NORTH FULTON-OCONEE-
OGLETHORPE-PAULDING-PEACH-PICKENS-PIKE-POLK-PULASKI-PUTNAM-ROCKDALE-
SCHLEY-SOUTH FULTON-SPALDING-STEWART-SUMTER-TALBOT-TALIAFERRO-TAYLOR-
TELFAIR-TOOMBS-TOWNS-TREUTLEN-TROUP-TWIGGS-UNION-UPSON-WALKER-WALTON-
WARREN-WASHINGTON-WEBSTER-WHEELER-WHITE-WHITFIELD-WILCOX-WILKES-
WILKINSON-
715 AM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH AND CENTRAL GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TODAY...

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL LIMIT CLOUD DEVELOPMENT...BUT THE INCREASE IN THE
TEMPERATURE...AND THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE IN THE AIR WILL LEAD TO AN
INCREASE IN INSTABILITY...WHICH WILL TRIGGER SOME GENERAL
THUNDERSTORMS.

.PRIMARY HAZARD...THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
LIGHTNING.

.DISCUSSION...
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP TODAY...AS DAYTIME
HEATING WILL COMBINE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE. THIS WILL LEAD TO
GREATER INSTABILITY. CAPE WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 2300.
HOWEVER...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST. THE BEST CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAY TWO THROUGH DAY SEVEN...

&&
FOR THE GRAPHICAL HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK AND OTHER WEATHER
INFORMATION...PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE AT WEATHER.GOV...AND CLICK ON
GEORGIA.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
148 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

GAZ011-061815-
148 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN CHATTOOGA
COUNTY UNTIL 215 PM EDT...

AT 147 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 5 MILES EAST OF TRION...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS BETWEEN 1 TO 2 INCHES AND SMALL HAIL CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THIS STORM. DRIVERS SHOULD USE CAUTION AS INTENSE
RAINFALL MAY REDUCE VISIBILITIES. PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS IS
ALSO LIKELY. THESE STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH BY 215 PM EDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
231 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

GAZ003>005-012-061915-
231 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

AT 229 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS FROM VARNELL TO CALHOUN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THIS STORM SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY 315 PM EDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
346 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

GAZ043-044-062030-
346 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN DOUGLAS AND
FULTON COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 344 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF PALMETTO...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THIS STORM SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY 430 PM EDT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
438 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

GAZ041-062115-
438 PM EDT TUE JUL 6 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT FOR FREQUENT LIGHTNING IN HARALSON
COUNTY UNTIL 515 PM EDT...

AT 435 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER BUCHANAN...MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

THIS STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL...FREQUENT
CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS MAY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. THIS STORM SHOULD
COME TO AN END BY 515 PM EDT.