Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004

Flash Flood Warning 61, NWS Kansas City, MO

September 17, 2004Platte County, Missouri

NWS Kansas City, MO issued this flash flood warning at Sep 17, 2004, 11:44 PM CDT for Platte County, Missouri. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Sep 17, 2004, 11:44 PM CDT (04:44 UTC)
Expired: Sep 18, 2004, 5:45 AM CDT
In force: 6 hr
Issued by: NWS Kansas City, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County Platte County, MO

The radar

The Pleasant Hill radar (KEAX), 76 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:44 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Topeka, KS (KTOP), launched 00:00Z, 4.7 hours before the alert went out and 89 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 3 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -819 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1757 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 32 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 191 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 408 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 4.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KEAX 180449
FFWEAX
MOC165-181045-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1144 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  PLATTE COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI

* UNTIL 545 AM CDT

* AT 1139 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR
  INDICATED   THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE 
  WARNED AREA WITH THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURRING ACROSS THE 
  CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY...TO THE NORTH OF PLATTE CITY.

* THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE WARNED AREA.
  RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING TO 
  OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
  WESTON...CAMDEN POINT...RIDGELY...TRACY AND HOOVER.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED ACT QUICKLY. MOVE
UP TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS
SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3952 9464 3919 9463 3919 9474 3952 9504

$$

PC

1 follow-up statement

000 
WGUS73 KEAX 181102
FFSEAX
MOC165-181130-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
601 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR PLATTE COUNTY HAS
BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE...

THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS PLATTE COUNTY THROUGH AT LEAST 7 
AM...HOWEVER...THE THREAT FOR LIFE THREATENING FLOODING AND EXCESS  
RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN 
OBSERVED...PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY OR 
TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PLEASANT HILL.

REPORT FLOODING TO THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY SO THAT THEY
MAY TAKE APPROPRIATE ACTION TO CLOSE FLOODED ROADWAYS.

LAT...LON 3952 9466 3942 9462 3920 9464 3923 9482
      3953 9502

$$

LVQ

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Kansas City, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Sep 17, 9:04 PM CDT, 2 hours 40 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Sep 17, 9:04 PM CDT, 2 hours 40 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
904 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

.DISCUSSION...
REVISING FORECASTS TO REFLECT ONGOING CONVECTION AND EXPECTED
CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. ISENTROPIC LIFT SHOULD BECOME MORE
FOCUSED INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI AND NORTHEAST KANSAS TONIGHT.
ALREADY SEEING AC FIELD DEVELOPING IN THAT AREA ON SATELLITE...SO
MAY SEE INITIATION IN THOSE AREAS BEFORE MIDNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET
INCREASES.  ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD FURTHER EAST AS THETA E ADVECTION
MOVES FROM NORTHWEST INTO NORTH CENTRAL MISSOURI OVERNIGHT. EVEN
THOUGH STORMS WILL BE SOMEWHAT ELEVATED WHICH MAY PREVENT STRONGER
WINDS FROM REACHING THE SURFACE...EXPECTED LIFT WOULD INDICATE THAT
THERE WILL BE THE POTENTIAL OF LARGER HAIL.  ALREADY UPDATED THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK BASED ON THE 01Z DAY 1 OUTLOOK FROM SPC.

PC

&&

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
239 PM...
THE ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE NATION HAS BEGUN TO BUCKLE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN EAST PACIFIC TROUGH THAT IS NOW MOVING INTO THE WEST
COAST. THIS HAS BROUGHT THE ONSET OF RIDGING ACROSS THE MID SECTION
OF THE NATION. AS THE RIDGING TAKES HOLD A MOISTURE PLUM IS
ADVECTING EAST...AND HAS POPPED OFF TWO SEPARATE STORM COMPLEXES.
ONE COMPLEX IS WELL TO THE NORTH IN NORTHERN IOWA...WHILE THE OTHER
STARTED EARLY THIS MORNING ON THE NOSE OF THE LOW LEVEL JET IN
CENTRAL KANSAS. THIS SECOND COMPLEX HAS HELD TOGETHER THANKS TO THE
CONTINUED EFFORTS OF A LOW LEVEL JET THAT PERSISTED THROUGH 11 AM.
WHILE THE STORMS ARE BEGINNING TO RAMP DOWN...ELEVATED STEEP LAPSE
RATES HAVE CONTINUED TO ADVECT EAST...ALONG WITH AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
FROM THE COLLAPSING KANSAS STORMS...AND WILL CARRY ISOLATED STORMS
INTO THE SOUTHWEST CORNER OF THE CWA DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS THE MOISTURE PLUM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO
LEAN OVER INTO OUR AREA. AFTER MIDNIGHT THE LOW LEVEL JET SHOULD
REESTABLISH ITSELF AND BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE THETA-E
RIDGE...POPPING OFF MORE ACTIVITY IN EAST KANSAS AND WEST MISSOURI.
LAPSE RATES IN NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI ARE PROGGED
TO STEEPEN TO GREATER THAN 7.5 C/KM AS THE NIGHT WARES ON...WITH
LIS RANGING FROM -4 TO -6...WHICH IS WERE INITIATION IS EXPECTED.
ADD TO THIS 0-3 KM SHEAR PEAKING AROUND 30 KTS AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES IN THE 1.25 INCH TO 1.5 INCH RANGE...AND WE COULD SEE
SOME ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL...STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS...AND HEAVY RAIN BEING THE PRIMARY THREATS.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...TODAYS HIGHS HAVE BEEN HELD IN CHECK BY CLOUD
COVER AND COOL SOUTHEAST SURFACE WINDS. ABOUT THE SAME IS EXPECTED
FOR TOMORROW WITH THE ADDITION OF SOME RAIN. SO...I HAVE PUSHED DOWN
TOMORROWS HIGHS...UNDER CUTTING GUIDANCE...BUT THEY MIGHT STILL BE
TOO WARM. SUNDAY SHOULD SEE AT LEAST MID 80S AS NEITHER CLOUD
COVER...COOL SOUTHEAST WIND...OR RAIN WILL BE AROUND TO HOLD TEMPS
DOWN.

CONCERNS WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST BEYOND MONDAY CONTINUE TO BE THE
STRENGTH OF WESTERN TROUGH DEVELOPMENT AND SUBSEQUENT COLD FRONT
PROGRESSION ACROSS THE PLAINS...ALONG WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF IVAN
REMNANTS ROTATING BACK TO THE FORECAST AREA TO GENERATE
PRECIPITATION. AS FOR THE REMNANTS OF IVAN...BOTH THE 00Z GFS AND
ECMWF SUGGEST THE UPPER LOW WILL RETROGRADE WEST WITHIN THE UPPER
RIDGE CIRCULATION AND BRING MOISTURE/COOLER TEMPERATURES BACK TO
AFFECT THE SOUTHEAST SECTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. AM NOT OVERLY
CONFIDENT THAT THE SYSTEM REMNANTS WILL MAKE THE JOURNEY THIS FAR
WEST...SO FOR NOW HAVE INCLUDED SOME LOW END PRECIPITATION CHANCES
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SECTION AND BUMPED UP CLOUD COVER FOR LATE
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. FOLLOWED CLOSER TO THE DGEX TIMING OF THE
COLD FRONT FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...WITH THE GFS SEEMING TOO
FAST IN PUSHING IT OUT OF THE FORECAST AREA. AM EXPECTING FRONTAL
PRECIPITATION TO AFFECT NORTHWEST MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA
OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.

CUTTER/STOFLET

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

WFO EAX

Hazardous weather outlook, Sep 17, 8:04 PM CDT, 3 hours 40 minutes before

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
804 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-181100-

...ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
HAIL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST...NORTH CENTRAL AND
WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI...AS WELL AS EXTREME EASTERN KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT IN NORTHEAST KANSAS
AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...POSSIBLY SPREADING INTO NORTH CENTRAL
MISSOURI TOWARD DAYBREAK.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE IN NORTH CENTRAL AND CENTRAL
MISSOURI DURING THE EVENING HOURS. SOME OF THE STORMS IN NORTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI MAY PRODUCE HAIL UP TO DIME SIZE.

HEAVY RAIN WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY STORMS THAT OCCUR TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

CONTINUING THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY CAN BE EXPECTED SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS MUCH OF THE OUTLOOK AREA. THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE
DISSIPATING BY MIDDAY. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH HAIL AND STRAIGHT LINE WINDS BEING THE MAIN THREATS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MAINLY IN
NORTHEAST KANSAS AND NORTHWEST MISSOURI...AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE
OUTLOOK AREA SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGIC AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT (LOWER CASE)
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/EAX OR HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

PC

In the hours before

Local storm report, Sep 17, 10:51 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1051 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1045 PM     HAIL             5 SSW AVENUE CITY       39.81N 94.82W
09/17/2004  0.88 INCH        BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LEINS

Local storm report, Sep 17, 10:51 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORR REPORT TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1051 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1035 PM     HAIL             5 SSW AVENUE CITY       39.81N 94.82W
09/17/2004  0.88 INCH        BUCHANAN           MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

LEINS

Local storm report, Sep 17, 11:09 PM CDT, 35 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
1109 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1040 PM     HAIL             5 N LEAVENWORTH         39.40N 94.92W
09/17/2004  0.88 INCH        PLATTE             MO   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HAIL OCCURRED IN KICKAPOO KANSAS AREA.

&&

PC

The office that day

Everything else NWS Kansas City, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Sep 17, 10:38 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Platte	67 min
Sep 17, 10:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Buchanan	45 min
Sep 17, 11:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clay, Platte	74 min
Sep 18, 12:08 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Andrew, Clinton, DeKalb	6 hr
Sep 18, 12:13 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew	62 min
Sep 18, 12:16 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Clinton	89 min
Sep 18, 12:31 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	DeKalb	74 min
Sep 18, 1:23 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Andrew	52 min
Sep 18, 2:03 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Jackson	72 min
Sep 18, 3:11 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	EAX	Cass	49 min
Sep 18, 4:51 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Clay, Jackson	6 hr
Sep 18, 8:55 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	EAX	Platte	4 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2004 Every flash flood warning in 2004

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.