Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Detroit, MI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1116 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

.UPDATE...

UPDATE TO INCREASE POPS THIS AFTERNOON AND ISSUE FLOOD WATCH FOR
SOUTHERN CWA. FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS NOW MOVING ACROSS LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO WESTERN LOWER...AND MAINTAINING ITS STRENGTH PER
RADAR/IR SATELLITE IMAGERY. REGIONAL MOSAICS SHOW RETURNS DEVELOPING
SOUTHWARD...BECOMING MORE ROOTED IN AN UNSTABLE BOUNDARY LAYER.
FARTHER NORTH THERE IS STILL ENOUGH ELEVATED INSTABILITY TO MAINTAIN
STRONG STORMS...WITH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES APPARENT ON 12Z DTX
SOUNDING. WILL INCREASE POPS TO LIKELY/NUMEROUS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.
AT LEAST ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA IT LOOKS TO BE A COMPARATIVELY
QUICK SHOT /AROUND AN HOUR/ BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD GET SOME RAIN. IN
ADDITION...GIVEN WIDESPREAD 1-2 INCH RAINFALLS OBSERVED IN THE
GENERAL VICINITY OF I-94 LAST NIGHT...COMBINED WITH THE POTENTIAL
FOR ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL THIS AFTERNOON...WILL ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH FOR THE SOUTHERN CWA. ADDITIONAL MCS LOOKS TO TRACK THROUGH
THE STATE YET AGAIN TONIGHT. WILL RUN THE WATCH THROUGH 600 AM
SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH...AND EVALUATE THE HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL
FARTHER NORTH AGAIN AFTER REVIEWING THE 12Z MODEL DATA.

&&

BRAVENDER

.PREV DISCUSSION...325 AM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

VERY BUSY MORNING...AS A SEVERE LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS JUST
FINISHED CLEARING THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA. WITH CAPES OF 3000
J/KG...PER 00Z DTX SOUNDING...SEVERE WEATHER REALLY NOT A BIG
SURPRISE. COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SINK SOUTH OF THE MICHIGAN
BORDER THIS MORNING...PROVIDING A SHORT REPRIEVE TO SOUTHEAST
MICHIGAN. LATER TODAY...AND RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND...IT LOOKS TO
BE ACTIVE AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT
LAKES....AND PIECES OF ENERGY EJECT NORTHEAST FROM THE PLAINS.
PLENTY OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...ALONG WITH GOOD WIND FIELDS TO
SUPPORT CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER RIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS WELL.

WILL FOLLOW THE MAJORITY OF THE MODELS...AND LEAN TOWARD THE
GFS/CANADIAN/UKMET...WHICH IS IN AGREEMENT WITH HPC. MCS OVER THE
MIDWEST THIS MORNING EXPECTED TO HEAD INTO LOWER MICHIGAN BY THIS
EVENING. FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOOKS TO BE CLOSE TO THE MICHIGAN/OHIO
BORDER AT 00Z...BEFORE TRYING TO PUSH NORTH. WILL LEAVE THE CURRENT
MAX TEMPERATURE FORECAST ALONE...AS IT SEEMS REASONABLE.
COULD SEE A LATE DAY HIGH OF 80 DEGREES IN LENAWEE/WASHTENAW
COUNTIES. WITH THE REASONABLE AGREEMENT OF THE SHORT TERM MODELS
TRACKING THE MCS/SHORTWAVE THROUGH CENTRAL LOWER MICHIGAN THIS
EVENING...WILL GO AHEAD AND BUMP POPS UP. POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE
WEATHER...DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WE GENERATE TODAY...AS
50 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET WORKS INTO THE AREA. EVEN IF THE CONVECTION
REMAINS ELEVATED...STILL COULD SEE SOME HAIL. GFS INDICATING 850 MB
COMPUTED CAPES OF AROUND 1500 J/KG.

ANY NORTHWARD PROGRESS OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY TONIGHT/SATURDAY
MORNING SHOULD BE TEMPORARILY HALTED IN THE WAKE OF THE MCS.
GFS INDICATING FRONTAL BOUNDARY ALONG OR JUST NORTH OF I 69 BY
AFTERNOON. REALLY NOT SEEING MUCH OF A CAP IN PLACE IN THE WARM
SECTOR...AS 700 MB TEMPS ONLY EXPECTED TO CLIMB TO 7 TO 8 C. WILL
BUMP POPS UP SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...AS THE STREAM OF MOISTURE
CONTINUES AND PW VALUES REMAIN ABOVE 1.5 INCHES. WITH THE TIGHT
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...BIG BUST TEMPERATURES
WITH RESPECT TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND...AS MAXES WILL
EASILY RISE INTO THE 80S SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY. TRYING TO
PIN DOWN THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WITHIN 30 MILES REMAINS DIFFICULT.
HAVE RAISED MAXES SIGNIFICANTLY ON SUNDAY...AS CONFIDENCE IS
REASONABLY HIGH MOST OF THE CWA WILL BE IN THE WARM SECTOR.
BANKING ON A MONDAY MORNING FROPA...PER 00Z ETAXX...WHICH SHOULD
KEEP US DRY IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH...THIS AFTERNOON AND
     TONIGHT...MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083.

&&

SF

EXPERIMENTAL GRAPHICAL FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE ONLINE AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/DTX  (ALL LOWER CASE)

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI
1219 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-221100-
BAY-GENESEE-HURON-LAPEER-MIDLAND-SAGINAW-SANILAC-SHIAWASSEE-
ST. CLAIR-TUSCOLA-
1219 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ALONG
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 69.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 232 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM.

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE
SEVERE...WITH HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER BEING THE MAIN HAZARD.
HOWEVER...DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH AND A POSSIBLE TORNADO CAN NOT BE
RULED OUT TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 40
MPH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL RETURN NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

THE SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

MIZ068>070-075-076-082-083-221100-
LENAWEE-LIVINGSTON-MACOMB-MONROE-OAKLAND-WASHTENAW-WAYNE-
1219 PM EDT FRI MAY 21 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN ALONG
AND SOUTH OF M-59.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 232 IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM.

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY BE SEVERE...WITH HAIL TO ONE INCH IN DIAMETER AND WIND GUSTS TO
70 MPH BEING THE MAIN HAZARDS. A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT
AS WELL TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT WILL BE TO THE EAST AT 40 MPH.

A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY.

THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT MAY ALSO PRODUCE LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS IS IN ADDITION TO THE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN THAT
FELL LAST NIGHT. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL MAY CREATE FLOODING
PROBLEMS. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...PLEASE SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
WATCH STATEMENT.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE NORTHERN OHIO VALLEY WILL RETURN NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT.

.DAY TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE IS A CHANCE OF MORE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY...AS A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LINGERS ACROSS THE REGION. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS MAY LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...OTHERWISE THE NEXT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LATE TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

DISPATCHERS...PLEASE NOTIFY YOUR EMERGENCY MANAGERS IMMEDIATELY.

THE SPOTTER NETWORK HAS BEEN ACTIVATED.

BRAVENDER