Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...
FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE COLD FRONT THAT DROPPED
DOWN INTO WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST KANSAS EARLIER TODAY HAS PRETTY
MUCH GONE STATIONARY ALONG A LINE FROM LACROSSE THROUGH NESS CITY
TO SYRACUSE.  MOISTURE WAS POOLING NORTH OF THE FRONT EARLIER IN THE
DAY BUT THIS APPEARS TO BE SLACKENING AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT.
MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WAS OCCURRING BUT WAS FAIRLY WEAK EXCEPT
IN THE LACROSSE AREA.  RUC SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOWED SOME CAPPING IN THE
VICINITY OF THE FRONT. AM NOT OVERLY EXCITED ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS
POPPING ALONG THE FRONT BUT WITH SOME BROAD ASCENT OVER THE AREA
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WEAK WAVE/THERMAL TROUGH MOVING OUT OVER THE
HIGH PLAINS, WILL KEEP THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS GOING FOR THIS
EVENING.

ON SATURDAY, THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA.  LOW
PRESSURE IS SITUATED OVER NORTHWEST KANSAS WITH A SURFACE TROUGH
EXTENDING BACK TO THE SOUTH INTO EASTERN NEW MEXICO.  A DRYLINE WILL
BE SETTING UP IN THE VICINITY OF SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL WHICH WILL BE
THE FOCUS FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE
STILL FAIRLY WARM SO STORMS WILL HAVE A TIME GETTING THROUGH THE
CAP AGAIN.  HIGH TEMPERATURES TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE SHOULD NOT
SPIKE SO MUCH AS WILL BE THE CASE FARTHER WEST.  SHOULD SEE HIGHS
CLIMB BACK WELL UP INTO THE 90S OVER CENTRAL AND WESTERN SECTIONS
OF THE CWA.  THE DRYLINE SHOULD RETREAT TO THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
THEN PUSH BACK OUT TO THE EAST ON SATURDAY.  THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ON
SATURDAY SHOULD BE A LITTLE BETTER AS THE MID LEVEL WARM LAYER WILL
BE NOT AS PRONOUNCED AND A MORE SIGNIFICANT UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE
TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION.  TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE A
FEW DEGREES COOLER, ESPECIALLY IN THE WEST, AS THICKNESS VALUES
START TO FALL.

DAYS 3-7...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES WILL BE TEMPERATURES AND TSTORM CHANCES THE
FIRST OF NEXT WEEK. SOME FAIRLY DECENT NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY WILL
TRAVERSE THE NORTHERN PLAINS NEXT WEEK WHILE THE SOUTHERN STREAM
WESTERN TROUGH REMAINS. THIS WILL SEND A COLD FRONT SOUTH THRU THE
PLAINS ON MON, ARRIVING IN KS SOMETIME LATE IN THE DAY MON. MONDAY
AFTERNOON COULD BE INTERESTING DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONT/DRYLINE
INTERFACE SETS UP, AND IT VERY WELL COULD BE ACROSS OUR EASTERN
ZONES. GFS SHOWS FAIRLY HIGH 850MB RH BEHIND THE FRONT, SO WE COULD
SEE A SCENARIO LIKE A COUPLE OF DAYS AGO WITH TEMPS STAYING IN THE
60S WITH LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ON TUESDAY. WITH GOOD COORDINATION WITH
GID AND ICT, HAVE TRENDED HIGHS DOWN CONSIDERABLY TO BELOW NORMAL
READINGS AND IT MAY NEED FURTHER ADJUSTMENT DOWNWARD WITH FUTURE
MODEL RUNS. THE CANADIAN SENDS THE FRONT CLEAR DOWN THE RED RIVER
VALLEY AND IF THAT VERIFIED WE WOULD SEE A BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP
WITH THE MID LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE IN THE AREA. WILL TREND WEDNESDAY
HIGHS DOWN IN CASE THE FRONT GOES FARTHER SOUTH THAN NORTHERN
OKLAHOMA.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 67 96 64 93 / 20 20 20 20
GCK 64 96 62 90 / 20 20 20 20
EHA 62 93 60 88 / 20 00 10 10
LBL 65 95 62 94 / 20 20 20 20
HYS 66 96 64 92 / 20 20 20 20
P28 70 91 67 93 / 00 00 10 20
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

GERARD/LACY

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENTS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1156 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>063-074-075-211000-
ELLIS-FINNEY-GRANT-HAMILTON-KEARNY-LANE-NESS-RUSH-SCOTT-STANTON-
TREGO-
1156 AM CDT (1056 AM MDT) THU MAY 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG AND NORTH OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR JOHNSON
THROUGH GARDEN CITY TO LACROSSE.  THE MOST LIKELY SEVERE WEATHER
THAT CAN BE EXPECTED FROM ANY STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL BE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. AN ISOLATED TORNADO COULD ALSO OCCUR NEAR
THE FRONT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS
LIKELY WILL BE SEVERE. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A
RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE
WEATHER PATTERN OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MINOR UPPER LEVEL WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE FLOW WILL RIPPLE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PROVIDE
A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 5 PM.

KSZ064>066-076>079-084>088-211000-
CLARK-EDWARDS-FORD-GRAY-HASKELL-HODGEMAN-MEADE-MORTON-PAWNEE-SEWARD-
STAFFORD-STEVENS-
1156 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BY LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH
OF THE REGION. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY AFTER 5 PM
AROUND ELKHART AND LIBERAL WITH THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE FARTHER EAST
AROUND DODGE CITY, KINSLEY AND ST JOHN BY EARLY EVENING. THE
MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE DAMAGING HAIL AND HIGH WIND.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
WILL BE SEVERE. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MINOR UPPER LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW WILL RIPPLE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS EVENING.

KSZ080-081-089-090-211000-
BARBER-COMANCHE-KIOWA-PRATT-
1156 AM CDT THU MAY 20 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK, AND A FEW OF THE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY
WILL BE SEVERE. A TROUGH OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES AND A RIDGE
OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN PART OF THE COUNTRY WILL KEEP AN ACTIVE WEATHER
PATTERN OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS. MINOR UPPER LEVEL WAVES EMBEDDED IN
THE FLOW WILL RIPPLE OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS AND PROVIDE A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SATURDAY AND MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.

GERARD