Severe Thunderstorm Warning 37, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
314 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

...WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TO OVERSPREAD ALL OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TODAY THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY...

RAINFALL AMOUNTS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TODAY,
TONIGHT, AND INTO THE FIRST PART OF SATURDAY.  PRECIP TYPE IS ALSO A
BIT OF A CHALLENGE NEAR THE COLORADO LINE, ESPECIALLY IN HAMILTON
COUNTY.

WATER VAPOR AND IR SAT IMAGERY SHOW A WELL DEVELOPED MID LATITUDE
CYCLONE SPINNING OVER THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.  A VERY PRONOUNCED
UPPER DIVERGENCE FIELD EXISTS THIS MORNING OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND SOUTHERN COLORADO, EAST OF THE H5 LOW CENTER.  00Z RAOB ANALYSIS
SHOWS STRONG 850/700MB BAROCLINIC ZONE IN PLACE WITH THIS SYSTEM, SO
COMBINING THIS WITH THE VIGOROUS AGEOSTROPHIC AND ISALLOBARIC WINDS,
FRONTOGENESIS FORCING IS VERY STRONG IN COMBINATION WITH THE
QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC ASCENT.  A LARGE, COLD CLOUD TOP IR PRESENTATION
WITH LIGHTNING STRIKES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE COLD CLOUD TOP SHIELD
IS GOOD EVIDENCE OF ALL THIS FORCING FOR VERY IMPRESSIVE UPWARD
VERTICAL MOTION.  THIS SYSTEM LOOKS VERY MUCH LIKE THE MARCH 16-19,
2003 COLORADO STORM, FROM A SATELLITE PERSPECTIVE, ONLY MORE COMPACT
IN NATURE.

STRONG UPSLOPE FLOW HAS YIELDED DRIZZLE AND LIGHT FOG OVER MUCH OF
MY AREA EARLY THIS MORNING.  THIS WILL BE THE RULE MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS OUTSIDE OF THE HEAVIER RAIN AREAS (MAINLY
OVER WESTERN ZONES THROUGH MIDDAY).  TEMPERATURES WILL GO NOWHERE
TODAY WITH STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS, LOW CLOUDS, DRIZZLE, AND RAIN.
TEMPERATURES STEADY IN THE UPPER 40S WILL BE THE RULE, WITH
MID-UPPER 50S IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST.  TEMPERATURES MAY ACTUALLY COOL
SOME NEAR THE COLORADO LINE AS THE LOW LEVEL COLUMN CONTINUES TO
COOL DUE TO VIGOROUS ASCENT.  LOW LEVEL THERMAL FIELDS SUGGEST THE
ATMOSPHERE WILL BE CLOSE TO SUPPORTING SNOW TO THE SURFACE OVER
HAMILTON AND STANTON COUNTIES.

IT APPEARS A WIDESPREAD AREA OF STORM TOTAL RAINFALL IN THE 0.5 TO
1.5 WILL ENCOMPASS MUCH OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS.  WHERE EXACTLY THE
HEAVIEST RAIN WILL OCCUR WILL DEPEND ON MESOSCALE DETAILS THAT ARE
NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO ANTICIPATE MORE THAN 12 HOURS IN ADVANCE,
HOWEVER IT APPEARS GIVEN THE MASSIVE AMOUNTS OF LIFT, THE COLD
NATURE OF THE SYSTEM, MOISTURE INFLUX ON TOP OF THE LOW LEVEL COLD
DOME (AS WELL AS A FAVORABLE CLIMATOLOGY COMPONENT), THAT ELEVATED
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL ENHANCE RAINFALL TOTALS IN SEVERAL AREAS OF
THE CWA...MAINLY SOUTHEASTERN 1/3.

THE ONLY THING THAT APPEARS DETRIMENTAL TO A POTENTIAL FLOOD PROBLEM
IS THE LARGE SURFACE BASED CONVECTIVE SYSTEM WHICH IS EXPECTED SOUTH
ALONG THE RED RIVER.  THIS SHOULD DETER WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 RAINFALL
AMOUNTS, WHICH WOULD OTHERWISE BE LIKELY GIVEN THE OTHER
METEOROLOGICAL INDICATIONS.  THIS SAID, A FLOOD WATCH WILL NOT BE
ISSUED THIS CYCLE FOR SOUTHEASTERN ZONES, HOWEVER THE FOLLOWING
SHIFTS WILL NEED TO MONITOR THIS POSSIBILITY CAREFULLY.

DAYS 3-7...

NO CHANGES ARE PLANNED IN THE GRIDS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 48 45 55 43 / 90 99 50 00
GCK 47 40 55 43 / 90 99 50 00
EHA 44 38 57 43 / 99 99 20 00
LBL 48 42 57 44 / 90 90 20 00
HYS 48 45 53 43 / 50 90 80 00
P28 56 47 61 45 / 80 99 80 00
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

UMSCHEID/JOHNSON

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
444 AM CDT FRI APR 23 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-241000-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
444 AM CDT (344 AM MDT) FRI APR 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OVERSPREAD SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT DEVELOPS OVER SOUTHWEST
KANSAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS, WITH THE GREATEST
PROBABILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO BE ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE ARKANSAS
RIVER.  SOME SMALL HAIL IS POSSIBLE GIVEN THE DEGREE OF COLD AIR
ALOFT, HOWEVER THE MAIN WEATHER STORY WILL BE THE WIDESPREAD AREA
OF MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAIN, ESPECIALLY TONIGHT.  RAIN
MAY MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW NEAR THE COLORADO BORDER,
PARTICULARLY IN THE COOLIDGE TO SYRACUSE TO JOHNSON AREAS, WHERE UP
TO AN INCH OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE.  MANY LOCATIONS ACROSS SOUTHWEST
KANSAS MAY RECEIVE THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH OF RAINFALL OR MORE
THROUGH MIDDAY SATURDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

RAINFALL AMOUNT REPORTS FROM SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED AND GREATLY
APPRECIATED.

UMSCHEID