Severe Thunderstorm Warning 155, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THIS FORECAST PACKAGE IS WHEN AND WHERE TO
ADD POPS, WITH A SECONDARY CONSIDERATION HIGH TEMPS.

LOOKING AT THE LATEST RADAR, MOST ACTIVITY HAS BEEN FROM EAST MOST
BORDER OF PRATT/STAFFORD COUNTIES AND EASTWARD.  ONE WAYWARD CELL
POPPED UP IN EASTERN FORD COUNTY AND MOVED OVER INTO NORTHERN KIOWA
COUNTY BE BETWEEN 0545Z AND 0630Z, BUT PULSED DOWN AS FAST AS IT
PULSED UP.  THINK THIS STORM WILL BE GONE BY SUNRISE WITH MUCH OF
THE MIXING FINISHED BY THEN. HOWEVER, WILL KEEP A 20 PERCENT
CHANCE FOR THUNDER GOING IN SOUTHEAST 5 COUNTIES, ACCOUNTING FOR
LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES AND CONVERGENCE POCKETS.  THE STORMS FORMED
ALONG A BOUNDARY WHERE AN OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTHEAST
MERGED ALONG A EAST-WEST WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
BOUNDARY OF HIGHER DEW POINTS LED TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT, AS WELL
AS THE FAST DECLINE.

AS FOR THE REST OF TODAY, THINK WITH PLENTY OF WARM AIR IN PLACE AND
TO OUR SOUTHWEST, IT WILL GET PRETTY WARM TODAY.  AS THE CAP GETS
BROKEN TODAY, THINK THERE IS AT LEAST A 20 PERCENT CHANCE FOR
STORMS IN THE EASTERN 2 TIER OF COUNTIES, WHERE DEW POINTS WILL
HOVER IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70.  PEGGED THE LBL-MEADE-DDC AREA TO
BE THE WARMEST TODAY, IN THE UPPER 90S.  CLOUDS AND LATE DAY PRECIP
CHANCES WILL KEEP TEMPS IN EASTERN COUNTIES FROM CLIMBING TO NEAR
100, I BELIEVE.

AS FOR TONIGHT, WILL KEEP 20 POPS GOING IN EAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT,
THEN PARTLY CLOUDY.  WINDS SHOULD KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM FALLING
FAST, AND STAYED NEAR MET NWP GUIDANCE NUMBERS.  AS FOR MONDAY, THE
UPPER ATMOSPHERE DOES NOT CHANGE THE AIRMASS OVER US MUCH, SO PLAN
ON SIMILAR HIGH TEMPS.  WILL EXPAND THE 20 POPS FOR THUNDERSTORMS
BACK WEST ANOTHER ROW OF COUNTIES, AS PROLONGED SOUTHERLY FLOW
SHOULD WRAP SOME OF THE MOISTURE BACK TO THE WEST.  AS CONVECTIVE
TEMPS ARE REACHED DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON, STORMS WILL
FORM SOMEWHERE ALONG THE LEFT OVER BOUNDARIES.  FOR NOW, PLAN ON
STAYING WITH 20 POPS, BUT THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED LATER.

VERY SIMILAR LOW TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY NIGHT, AND 20 POPS TO
CONTINUE IN EAST 1/2 CWA THROUGH ABOUT 03Z OR SO.

AS FAR AS MODEL INITIALIZATION, THE ETA FAIRED BEST AT 5H AND 8H,
BUT NO MODEL INITIALIZED WELL AT THE SURFACE LEVEL.  LEANED TOWARD
THE ETA MODEL FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST.

DAYS 3-7...

NEAR TERM ISSUES TAKING UP MOST OF THE TIME THIS MORNING, BUT QUICK
LOOK AT THE LATER PERIODS SUGGEST THAT THE MAIN QUESTION WILL BE
WHERE THE SFC BOUNDARY WILL BE MID WEEK. HAVE NOT LOOKED AT ENOUGH
TO MAKE A GOOD GUEST ON EXACT LOCATION YET BUT TEMPS SHOULD BE
COOLER IN THE NORTH VS THE SOUTH. AS A RESULT WAS LEANING TOWARDS
LEAVING TEMPS AS IS MID WEEK BUT DID BUMP TEMPS UP ON TUESDAY BASED
ON 85H TEMP PROGS. AS FOR LATE WEEK WITH A RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE
WESTERN CONUS THE CURRENT GRIDS APPEAR REASONABLE WITH THE COOL DOWN
LATE WEEK/EARLY WEEKEND TIME FRAME. AFTER COORD WITH OUN AGREE WITH
THEM IN THE POTENTIAL FOR OF NOCTURNAL HIGH PLAINS MCS ACTIVITY IS
THERE FOR LATE WEEK SO ADDED SMALL POPS TO COVER THIS INITIALLY.
WILL CONTINUE TO EXAMINE THIS AS TIME PERMITS AND ADJUST GRIDS IF
NEEDED LATER THIS MORNING.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 97 64 98 64 / 00 00 20 20
GCK 96 62 95 61 / 00 00 00 00
EHA 95 62 97 63 / 00 00 00 00
LBL 98 63 99 63 / 00 00 00 00
HYS 93 65 92 64 / 20 20 20 20
P28 95 69 93 69 / 20 20 20 20
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

12/18

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

KSZ065-066-079>081-089-090-141000-
BARBER-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-KIOWA-PAWNEE-PRATT-STAFFORD-
500 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS MORNING IN
THE SAINT JOHN, PRATT AND MEDICINE LODGE AREAS.  SMALL HAIL MAY
ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS, BUT SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED.
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS, THERE WILL BE
A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF A LINE FROM LARNED
TO COLDWATER, INCLUDING THE COMMUNITIES OF PRATT, GREENSBURG AND
MEDICINE LODGE.  THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS
ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS TO 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED BETWEEN 4 AND 11 PM CDT ALONG AND EAST OF A
LARNED TO COLDWATER LINE.

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>064-074>078-084>088-141000-
CLARK-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-
LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
500 AM CDT (400 AM MDT) SUN JUN 13 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

TSB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
307 AM CDT SUN JUN 13 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 AM     HAIL             PRESTON                 37.76N 98.56W
06/13/2004  0.88 INCH        PRATT              KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

18