Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
311 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

.DISCUSSION...

DAYS 1-2...

POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE HAS NOW MOVED INTO WESTERN NM AND HAS
MADE THE TURN TOWARD THE NE LIKE IT WAS SUPPOSED TO. LOOKING NW,
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT THAT WILL EVENTUALLY SET UP THE SEVERE WX
LATER TODAY ACROSS OUR AREA IS LOCATED OVER SE WY, WESTERN NEB, AND
HAS FORCED A LINE OF STORMS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS (COULD SOMEBODY
PLEASE TELL ME WHAT MONTH THIS IS AGAIN). SURFACE DRYLINE
EXTENDS ACROSS EASTERN CO AND NM AND MAY BE THE INITIATOR FOR
TODAYS ACTIVITY AS THE SOUTHERN WAVE INTERACTS WITH IT. FAIRLY
POTENT WAA CLUSTER OF STORMS OVER CENTRAL KS WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NE
OUT OF THE AREA THIS MORNING.

LOOKS LIKE WE MIGHT SEE ANOTHER ROUND OF WAA ACTIVITY AS THE
SOUTHERN IMPULSE APPROACHES EARLY THIS MORNING. SO WILL BLANKET 20
POP TO COVER. 00Z MODELS SLOWED DOWN THE FRONT SLIGHTLY THRU OUR
AREA SO HAVE ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDINGLY. STILL THINK THAT SQ LINE WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT AS EARLY AS MID MORNING ACROSS OUR WESTERN
SECTIONS AS DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS ARE FORECAST TO BE PARALLEL TO
THE DRYLINE WHICH WILL EVENTUALLY BE OVERTAKEN BY THE PACIFIC FRONT
TO THE NW LATER TODAY. WITH 40-50KTS OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR, EMBEDDED
SUPERCELLS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
ISOLATED SUPERCELLS WILL BE SOUTH INTO OKLAHOMA AND POSSIBLY SC KS,
POSSIBLY WHERE THE DRYLINE AND COLD FRONT INTERSECT. DEEP LAYER SHEAR
VECTORS WILL BE MORE ORTHOGONAL TO THE DRYLINE DOWN THERE. DMG
WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE PRIMARY CONCERNS TODAY. WILL CLEAR PRECIP OUT
OF SW KS BY 9PM AS THE FRONT WILL HAVE MOVED OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST
BY THEN.

OTHER THAN A FEW TWEAKS TO THE TEMPS, NO OTHER BIG CHANGES WERE MADE
TO THE GOING FORECAST.

DAYS 3-7...

NOT A LOT OF TIME TO LOOK AT THE EXTENDED FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH
THE ONGOING CONVECTION.  MEDIUM RANGE MODELS APPEAR TO BE IN FAIRLY
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WILL BE BETWEEN UPPER
SYSTEMS BY MIDWEEK.  DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEK THE REGION
WILL BE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE UPPER LOW
THAT DEEPENS OVER THE GREAT LAKES/MIDWEST REGION.  FORECAST 850 MB
TEMP FIELDS SHOW A DECENT GRADIENT OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS.
TEMPERATURES OVER THE EASTERN PORTION OF THE CWA MAY BE A LITTLE
SLOWER TO REBOUND.  HAVE ADJUSTED MAX TEMPS ON MONDAY DOWN A
CATEGORY AS A RESULT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...

DDC 74 42 63 34 / 60 00 00 00
GCK 71 38 62 32 / 50 00 00 00
EHA 71 40 62 33 / 40 00 00 00
LBL 74 41 63 35 / 50 00 00 00
HYS 70 39 62 34 / 60 00 00 00
P28 75 47 66 38 / 60 60 00 00
&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
&&

LACY/GERARD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
500 AM CST SAT MAR 27 2004

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-281100-
BARBER-CLARK-COMANCHE-EDWARDS-ELLIS-FINNEY-FORD-GRANT-GRAY-HAMILTON-
HASKELL-HODGEMAN-KEARNY-KIOWA-LANE-MEADE-MORTON-NESS-PAWNEE-PRATT-
RUSH-SCOTT-SEWARD-STAFFORD-STANTON-STEVENS-TREGO-
500 AM CST (400 AM MST) SAT MAR 27 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST KANSAS
TODAY AND TONIGHT AND WILL PUSH A PACIFIC COLD FRONT THROUGH THE
AREA. STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG AND AHEAD OF
THIS COLD FRONT AS IT MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE THROUGH THE GARDEN CITY AREA AND POINTS WEST BY NOON, THE DODGE
CITY AND HAYS AREA BY AROUND 2 PM, AND THE MEDICINE LODGE AREA BY
AROUND 6 PM. THE PRIMARY THREATS ARE EXPECTED TO BE DAMAGING WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED OUT
EITHER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE PROBABILITY OF WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL BE NEEDED TODAY AND THIS EVENING AS THE
STORMS PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTHWEST KANSAS.

LACY