Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Flash Flood Warnings in 2004
Flash Flood Warning 37, NWS State College, PA
NWS State College, PA issued this flash flood warning at Aug 2, 2004, 7:29 PM EDT for York County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 6 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The outline as issued.
The facts
- Issued
- Aug 2, 2004, 7:29 PM EDT (23:29 UTC)
- Expired
- Aug 3, 2004, 1:30 AM EDT
- In force
- 6 hr
- Issued by
- NWS State College, PA
- Area
- Counties, with a storm outline in the text
County York County, PA
The radar
The Sterling radar (KLWX), 129 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 23:31 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
Did it verify
Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.
Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 12:00Z, 11.5 hours before the alert went out and 128 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 652 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -54 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 661 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 10 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -3 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 44 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 WGUS51 KCTP 022333 FFWCTP PAC133-030530- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 729 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE PA HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... YORK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA * UNTIL 130 AM EDT. * AT 721 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A NEARLY STATIONARY THUNDERSTORM WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR WEIGELSTOWN. SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING AROUND WEIGELSTOWN...YORK AND EMIGSVILLE. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND. PLEASE REPORT FLOODING...HAIL...STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772. LAT...LON 4005 7673 3993 7669 3993 7688 4003 7687 $$ KF
1 follow-up statement
000 WGUS71 KCTP 030059 FFSCTP PAC133-030700- FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 855 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004 ...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR YORK COUNTY UNTIL 130 AM EDT... AT 847 PM EDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED DOZENS OF ROADS CLOSED FROM FLOODING AROUND DOVER...SPRING GROVE...YORK AND MANCHESTER. RADAR ESTIMATES THAT OVER 3 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL YORK COUNTY. THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DISSIPATED...BUT RUNOFF FROM THE HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE FLASH FLOODING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODS AND FLASH FLOODS. $$ KF
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Aug 2, 3:10 PM EDT, 4 hours 19 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Aug 2, 3:10 PM EDT, 4 hours 19 minutes before
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 310 PM EDT MON AUG 2 2004 .AVIATION... VFR CONDS CONT INTO THIS EVENING WITH ISOLATED MVFR NEAR ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA OVR LOWER SUSQ AND SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WHERE SOME CELLS MAY CONTAIN VERY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH MID EVENING. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDS DEVELOPING AGAIN LATE TONIGHT IN FOG. && .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)... MUCH OF THE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY EARLY IN THE PD AS AREA REMAINS UNDER WEAK HI PRS AND IN A ZONE OF RELATIVE SUBSIDENCE BETWEEN DEVELOPING MIDWEST UPR TROF AND CIRCULATION AROUND T.S. ALEX. LATE SUMMER SUN AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SHWR/TSTMS TO DEVELOP THRU THE EVENING HOURS...MAINLY OVER THE LOWER SUSQ VALLEY AND SCENTRAL MTNS. WITH LIGHT STEERING WINDS ALOFT STORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVING AND HAVE POTENTIAL TO DROP LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...ESP GIVEN DEWPOINTS AOA 70F OVER THE SRN TIER. DESPITE TIMING AND QPF DIFFERENCES IN SHORT TERM MODEL GUIDANCE WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM...BOTH ETA AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND ASSCD PCPN HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER TUE/WED...WITH TUE BEING MAINLY DRY AND VERY WARM ACROSS THE CWA. PRONOUNCED BULLSEYES CONTINUE TO SHOW UP IN THE MODEL QPF PROGS...BUT ALIGN WITH EXPECTED AXES OF HEAVIER PCPN FOR GIVEN SYNOPTIC FRONTAL PSNS. FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST...WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS FROM TUE EVENING INTO THUR AS UPPER TROF DEEPENS OVER EASTERN NORTH AMERICA. && .LONG TERM (THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)... ANOMALOUSLY LOW HEIGHTS PROGGED ACROSS THE AREA THURS-SUN AS COLD CANADIAN CLOSED LOW CIRCULATION PROPAGATES ACROSS THE REGION. EXPECT DRIER AND COOLER CONDITIONS...BUT WITH DAILY CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION AROUND THE DIURNAL AFTERNOON/EVENING MAXIMUM. INDICATIONS FOR THE BEGINNING TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK ARE THAT THE EAST COAST RIDGE WILL BE REESTABLISHED...ENABLING THE CURRENT STRONG DISTURBANCE TRACKING OFF THE AFRICAN COAST TO APPROACH THE WATERS OF THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SOMETIME NEXT WEEK... WELL BEYOND DAY 7 OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...BUT WORTH FOLLOWING NONETHELESS. && .CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. && AVIATION/LONG TERM...DEVOIR SHORT TERM...GARTNER
Hazardous weather outlook, Aug 2, 5:14 AM EDT, 14 hours 15 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 514 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2004 PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053- 056>059-063>066-030910- ADAMS PA-BEDFORD PA-BLAIR PA-CAMBRIA PA-CAMERON PA-CLEARFIELD PA- COLUMBIA PA-CUMBERLAND PA-DAUPHIN PA-ELK PA-FRANKLIN PA-FULTON PA- HUNTINGDON PA-JUNIATA PA-LANCASTER PA-LEBANON PA-MCKEAN PA- MIFFLIN PA-MONTOUR PA-NORTHERN CENTRE PA-NORTHERN CLINTON PA- NORTHERN LYCOMING PA-NORTHUMBERLAND PA-PERRY PA-POTTER PA- SCHUYLKILL PA-SNYDER PA-SOMERSET PA-SOUTHERN CENTRE PA- SOUTHERN CLINTON PA-SOUTHERN LYCOMING PA-SULLIVAN PA-TIOGA PA- UNION PA-WARREN PA-YORK PA- 514 AM EDT MON AUG 2 2004 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA. .DAY ONE...TODAY: ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA AND THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...AND MAY MOVE SLOWLY...RESULTING IN ISOLATED AREAS OF MINOR FLOODING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY: NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED. KL
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 2004Every flash flood warning in 2004
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.