Severe Thunderstorm Warning 229, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OHIO
202 PM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
WEAK CONVECTION HAS BEEN MOVING SLOWLY EAST ACROSS ILLINOIS AND
INDIANA WITH SOME CELLS DISSIPATING WHILE OTHERS DEVELOP.  A FEW
WEAK CELLS DEVELOPED OVER NORTH CENTRAL OHIO THIS AFTERNOON.  DEW
POINTS HAVE BEEN ON THE INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AND HAVE CLIMBED
INTO THE UPPER 60S IN THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA. MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE DESTABILIZATION WILL OCCUR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.  SPC
HAS SHIFTED THE SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO ABOUT AS FAR
EAST AS CLEVELAND TO MANSFIELD LINE THIS PERIOD.  COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO MOVE SOUTHEAST OVER THE AREA TOWARD THE LATTER HALF OF
THE NIGHT.  NGM GUIDANCE RUNNING VERY LOW FOR POPS TONIGHT BUT FEEL
THIS IS UNDER DONE WITH THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA SO WILL
RAISE POPS TO 60 PERCENT AFTER MIDNIGHT AND KEEP A 50 POP THIS
EVENING.

COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO STALL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY.  I THINK WITH THE FRONT BEING SO CLOSE...I
WILL KEEP AT LEAST A MINIMAL CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
FRONT BEGINS TO LIFT BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT THURSDAY NIGHT AND
UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION BEGINS TO INCREASE AS WELL. MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE WILL ALSO BE PRESENT HELPING TO ENHANCE PRECIPITATION
THREAT. WILL MENTION A 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

FRIDAY LOOKS LIKE IT IS SHAPING UP TO BE A WASH OUT AS WARM FRONT
BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY OVER THE FORECAST AREA.  MODELS ARE ALL IN
AGREEMENT THAT WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE
FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST AREA ALSO BECOMES INFLUENCED BY THE
UPPER LEVEL RIGHT REAR QUAD OF THE JET STREAM AND WOULD LEAD ME TO
BELIEVE DEEPENING OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL OCCUR OVER THE FORECAST
AREA.  HENCE...POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN EXPECTED...
ESPECIALLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING PERIODS.  WILL BUMP UP
POPS TO LIKELY CATEGORY THROUGH THE DAY AS WAVE WILL BRING ENHANCED
PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA.

WILL NOT DEVIATE TOO MUCH FROM GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
HIGH PRESSURE IS PROGGED TO BUILD EAST ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY
PUMPING COLD AIR INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH.  DRIER AIR WORKS INTO
THE AREA BY MID AFTERNOON AND SHOULD BRING A QUICK END TO THE
PRECIPITATION.

EXPECTING STRONG SUBSIDENCE TO OCCUR SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AND
THIS SHOULD ALLOW SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR OUT.  SUNDAY LOOKS TO BE
A PLEASANT DAY WITH LOTS OF SUNSHINE.

MONDAY WILL SEE SOME INCREASING CLOUDS BUT SHOULD REMAIN DRY THROUGH
THE DAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. INTRODUCED A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
WITH THE FRONT. WILL KEEP THIS MINIMAL CHANCE FOR NOW.

WITH COLD AIR FILTERING INTO THE AREA SATURDAY...FEELING IS THAT
MOST OF THE DAY WILL HOLD IN THE UPPER 60S BUT THEN AS SUN COMES OUT
SOME WARMING TO THE LOWER 70S IS LIKELY.  OTHER THAN THAT...WILL
STAY CLOSE TO LONG RANGE GUIDANCE TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
&&

.AVIATION (18Z-18Z)...
EXPECT ISOLD/SCT TSTM TO DVPL DURG THE AFTN IN AXIS OF INSTAB ACRS
MUCH FA. OTRW SCT-BKN CU THIS AFTN AND ERY TNGT. BRING IN CAT
TSTMS/SHWRS ABT 3HRS AHEAD AND BEHIND FNT. FNT SHUD RCH TOL AREA
ARND 08Z CLRGG E AVN SITES ARND 12Z THU.
&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE.
PA...NONE.

&&

SHORT TERM...LOMBARDY
LONG TERM...LOMBARDY
AVIATION...WCR

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
606 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

OHZ003-006>014-017>023-027>033-036>038-047-089-PAZ001>003-191005-
ASHLAND OH-ASHTABULA INLAND OH-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE OH-CRAWFORD PA-
CRAWFORD OH-CUYAHOGA OH-ERIE OH-GEAUGA OH-HANCOCK OH-HOLMES OH-
HURON OH-KNOX OH-LAKE OH-LORAIN OH-LUCAS OH-MAHONING OH-MARION OH-
MEDINA OH-MORROW OH-NORTHERN ERIE PA-OTTAWA OH-PORTAGE OH-
RICHLAND OH-SANDUSKY OH-SENECA OH-SOUTHERN ERIE PA-STARK OH-
SUMMIT OH-TRUMBULL OH-WAYNE OH-WOOD OH-WYANDOT OH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AKRON...ASHLAND...ASHTABULA...
BOWLING GREEN...BUCYRUS...CANTON...CHARDON...CLEVELAND...ELYRIA...
ERIE...FINDLAY...FOSTORIA...FREMONT...JEFFERSON...LORAIN...
MANSFIELD...MARION...MEADVILLE...MEDINA...MILLERSBURG...
MOUNT GILEAD...MOUNT VERNON...NORWALK...PAINESVILLE...PORT CLINTON...
RAVENNA...SANDUSKY...TIFFIN...TOLEDO...UPPER SANDUSKY...WARREN...
WOOSTER AND YOUNGSTOWN
606 AM EDT WED AUG 18 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN OHIO AND
NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...

SOME OF THE THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP TONIGHT COULD APPROACH SEVERE
LIMITS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.