Severe Thunderstorm Warning 221, NWS Cleveland, OH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
310 AM EDT WED JUL 14 2004

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY)...
CONVECTION COULD NEVER REALLY GET GOING OVER NW OR EVEN N CENTRAL OH
OVERNIGHT. THINK THAT SUBSIDENCE FROM COMPLEX MOVING THRU IL/IN/KY
EARLIER IN THE NIGHT HELPED KEEP SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION FROM
DEVELOPING OR EVEN MOVING INTO ACROSS WESTERN OHIO. THIS WAS EVIDENT
BY DWPTS IN SW OH DROPPING 10-15 DEG IN JUST ONE HOUR EARLIER IN THE
NIGHT. WL BE INTERESTING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF
HOURS AS THE LINE MOVES INTO PERHAPS SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE
THERMODYNAMIC CONDITIONS OVER NE OH/NW PA. REGARDLESS...JUST PURE
EXTRAPOLATION OF THE LINE WOULD LIKELY TAKE IT THRU EXTREME NE OH
AND NW PA JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. WL NEED TO CARRY LIKELY POPS THIS
MORNING FOR THOSE AREAS. OTHERWISE...FOR AREAS EAST OF A LORAIN TO
MFD LINE...WL KEEP CHC POPS FOR THIS MORNING JUST IN CASE THE LINE
TRIES TO REDEVELOP TO THE SOUTH AS IT MOVES INTO UNSTABLE AIR. WL
MAKE FINAL DECISION ON EXACT PLACEMENT OF MRNG POPS RIGHT BEFORE ZFP
ISSUANCE.

UPR TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH TODAY...WITH THE UPR LOW CLOSING OFF OVER
UPSTATE NY. THIS CAUSES THE LOW TO BASICALLY STALL OUT AND BECOME
VERTICALLY STACKED OVER NY STATE. BOTH THE GFS AND ETA SHOW PLENTY
OF WRAP AROUND MOISTURE AND SHORT WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE UPR LOW
THRU THURSDAY. WITH SUNSHINE THIS MORNING...THINKING SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN SHOWERS/TSTMS WL DEVELOP WITH THE COLD AIR. THINKING THAT TOL
AND FDY BEST CHANCE WL BE WHEN THE VORT AXIS MOVES THROUGH AROUND
NOON...BUT THEN THAT AREA WILL DRY OUT RATHER QUICKLY BY EVENING.
BUT NW PA SHOULD HAVE SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND UPR LVL SUPPORT TO
SUSTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY RIGHT THRU THURSDAY. FOR TONIGHT AND
THU...WL GO WITH LKLY POPS FOR ERI...TAPERING OFF TO CHC FROM CLE TO
MFD THROUGH TOL AND FDY. WL KEEP CHC OF THUNDER IN OVERNIGHT AS WELL
WITH SOME WEAK INSTABILITY WITH THE COLD AIR ALOFT. IF THE MODEL QPF
VERIFIES NR ERI...COULD BE LOCAL TOTALS OF AROUND 1 INCH TONIGHT AND
THU.

TEMPS WL BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS IN NW
FLOW AND 850MB TEMPS IN THE LOWER TEENS. DWPTS WL ALSO BE MUCH
LOWER...MAKING IT MUCH MORE COMFORTABLE THAN THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM(THU NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY)...
THE ETA WANTS TO EJECT THE UPR LOW TO THE EAST MUCH FASTER THAN THE
GFS THU NIGHT. WITH THE HIGHLY AMPLIFIED PATTERN ACROSS NORTH
AMERICA AND THE LACK OF ANY SIGNIFICANT KICKER SHORT WAVE UNTIL FRI
NIGHT...HAVE OPTED TO KEEP CHC POPS FOR NW PA THU NIGHT AS WELL. THE
GFS WOULD EVEN SUGGEST THAT POPS ARE NEEDED AS FAR WEST AS CLE...BUT
THINKING IS THAT CLE WL BE FAR ENOUGH INTO THE DRY AIR. NEXT SYSTEM
DIVES INTO THE LOWER LAKES SAT...BUT IS VERY MOISTURE STARVED.
ALTHOUGH THE FCST HAS LOW CHC POPS THRU THE WKND...IT IS UNLIKELY
THAT THE WHOLE WKND WL BE WET. IN FACT...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
PLACES MAY SEE VERY LITTLE IF ANY RAINFALL OVER THE WEEKEND.

NO CHANGES TO THE FCST BEYOND SATURDAY.

&&

.AVIATION (06Z-06Z)
WL CONT TREND OF BEING LESS PESSIMISTIC WITH AMT OF TSRA AND PRECIP
IN GNL.  THINK WL HV QUICK SHOT OF TSRA WITH CDFNT THEN A BREAK TIL
INSTABILITY SHRA/TSRA POP UP WITH DAYTIME HEATING. WITH TRACK OF UPR
LOW MOVG SE ACRS ERN LERI...INSTABILITY SHRA SHUD MNLY AFFECT ERN
AREAS SO ONLY CARRYING SHRA IN PREDOMINATE FCST FOR YNG AND ERI AND
ONLY VCSH FOR CLE...MFD AND CAK.  AS SHRA DVLP WITH INLAND HEATING
CUD SEE CLE PROTECTED FM LERI STABILIZING EFFECTS THIS AFTN.

&&

.CLE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OH...NONE
PA...NONE

&&

SHORT TERM...MRD
LONG TERM...MRD
AVIATION...05