Flash Flood Warning 28, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 240129
FFSBRO
TXC505-240430-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
830 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 1100 PM CDT FOR SOUTHERN 
ZAPATA COUNTY...

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR JIM HOGG COUNTY HAS EXPIRED...

AT 830 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS SOUTHERN ZAPATA 
COUNTY...JUST SOUTH OF THE CITY OF ZAPATA.

SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE
WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING
TO OCCUR...ESPECIALLY ALONG SMALL STREAMS AND NEAR LOW WATER
CROSSINGS. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...
ZAPATA AND SAN YGNACIO.

DOPPLER RADAR SHOWS THAT FROM 2 TO 4 INCHES HAVE BEEN RECEIVED IN 
SOUTHERN ZAPATA COUNTY...WITH AN ADDITIONAL 1 TO 2 INCHES POSSIBLE 
THIS EVENING. 

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS 
SAFELY. REMEMBER...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN. PHILO

LAT...LON 2701 9899 2665 9906 2662 9938 2716 9951

$$

PHILO

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 240258
FFSBRO
TXC505-240330-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
954 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA COUNTY 
UNTIL 11 PM CDT HAS BEEN CANCELED...

THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINS HAVE MOVED INTO ADJACENT MEXICO. 
THEREFORE...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR ZAPATA 
COUNTY UNTIL 11 PM CDT HAS BEEN CANCELED.

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO 
ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND. CONTINUE TO DRIVE WITH 
CARE IN ZAPATA COUNTY THIS EVENING. REMEMBER...NEVER DRIVE YOUR 
VEHICLE INTO WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH. TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

LAT...LON 2722 9907 2671 9902 2653 9927 2722 9955

$$

PHILO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
750 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

.1ST PD...SHRAS AND TSRAS W/HVY RAFL KNIFED SW INTO THE RGV FM ADJ
CRP CWF LATE THIS PM. A FLASH FLOOD WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR JIM HOGG
COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM...AND AN URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
WAS ISSUED FOR ZAPATA COUNTY UNTIL 9 PM.

COPIOUS MSTR REMAINS ENTRENCHED IN THE RGV...AS BRO 00Z SOUNDING
SHOWS PWATS AT 2.16 INCH...ALTHOUGH AMS MORE STABLE THAN 24H AGO.
SHRTWV ENERGY CONTINUES TO REMAIN AVAILABLE NOW THRU AT LEAST 4 AM
THU...SO WILL CONTINUE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 4 AM...AND ALLOW
MIDNIGHT METEOROLOGIST TO DETERMINE IF ENUF PCPN IS PROGD FOR A
CONTINUATION OF THIS WATCH THU.

NO CHANGES NECESSARY TO CURRENT ZFPBRO.
&&

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS:

.SHORT TERM...THE MAIN CONCERN OF THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS IS
CONV/FLOOD POTENTIAL FOR THE AREA.  WV SATL IMAGERY SHOWS SOME
DEEPER MOISTURE HOLDING IN PLACE ALONG THE TX COASTLINE WHILE DRIER
AIR APPEARS TO BE ADVECTING INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES ATTM.  OUTFLOW
FROM THE MORNING CONV HAS KEEP THE ATMS FAIRLY STABLE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY AND THIS HAS DELAYED ANY AFTERNOON DIURNALLY DRIVEN
DESTABILIZATION AS INDICATED BY THE LATEST VSBL SATL IMAGERY.
PORTIONS OF NE MEXICO HAVE REMAINED CLD FREE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND
THIS HAS ALLOWED GOOD AFTERNOON HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OVER
NE MEX AND FURTHER UPRIVER NW OF LRD. MEANWHILE...OFFSHORE LAPS LI
FIELDS AND KBRO RADAR SHOWS AREAS OF MARINE CONV FIRING ALONG AS A
PRETTY GOOD LI GRADIENT EXTENDS OFFSHORE. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS SOME
DISAGREEMENTS CONCERNING THE PERSISTENCE OF DEEP MOISTURE ALONG
THE LOWER TX COASTLINE. THE ETA MODEL KEEPS PRETTY HIGH MOISTURE
VALUES IN PLACE THROUGH THU AFTERWHICH THE MODEL PUSHES IN DRIER
AIR AT THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS.  MEANWHILE...HE GFS IS MORE
STUBBORN WITH THE MOISTURE AND KEEPS FAIRLY MOIST CONDITIONS IN
PLACE THROUGH 60 HRS AND BEYOND.  BOTH MODELS SHOW LIMITED UVV
THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS AND INTO THU BUT THEN BUILD A BETTER
DEVELOPED 5H TROUGH AXIS DOWN SOUTH OVER THE WESTERN GULF COAST LATE
THU AND FRI INCREASING UVV AND CONV POPS.

WITH THE CURRENT CONV DEVELOPMENT OCCURRING TO THE SE AND SW OF THE
REGION AM HESITANT TO LOWER THE FFA TOO SOON AS FFG FOR THE BRO CWA
REMAINS PRETTY LOW ESPECIALLY OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES.

MAV AND MET HIGH TEMPS IN THE SHORT TERM LOOK OVERDONE CONSIDERING
THE DEGREE OF GROUND SATURATION. ACCORDINGLY...WILL GO BELOW BOTH
MET AND MAV FOR HIGHS.
&&

.LONG TERM...5H TROFING MENTIONED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION THAT IS
POSITIONED OVER TX WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY THROUGH THE 120 HR
MARK WHICH WILL INTERACT WITH POOLED TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
REGION TO GENERATE SCT CONV IN THE OUTLOOK PERIOD. THE GFS DOES NOT
APPEAR TO DRY OUT THE REGION UNTIL AROUND THE FIRST OF JULY AS 5H
RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD OVER THE GULF OF MEX. SO WILL MAINTAIN A
MENTION OF SCT CONV FOR EACH DAY OF THE EXTENDED ZFP.  WITH THE HIGH
MOISTURE VALUES IN PLACE...FORECAST TEMPS WILL REMAIN NEAR CLIMO.
&&

.MARINE...AT 7 PM BUOY020 REPORTED EAST SOUTHEAST WINDS 9G11KTS WITH
4 FEET SEAS. A S/WV TROUGH WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST OVRNGT...
CAUSING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE TODAY. WINDS WILL INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE S/WV TROUGHS MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.
&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH TEMPO MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY SHOWERS OF THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT TO MODERATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST
THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78 86 77 86 78/ 50 40 30 40 30
BROWNSVILLE          79 89 77 87 78/ 50 40 30 40 30
HARLINGEN            78 91 77 92 78/ 50 40 30 40 30
MCALLEN              78 91 77 90 77/ 50 40 20 40 30
RIO GRANDE CITY      76 92 77 92 77/ 50 40 20 40 30
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   80 86 80 87 80/ 50 40 30 40 30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR
TXZ248>257 UNTIL 4 AM THURSDAY/FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR JIM HOGG
COUNTY UNTIL 830 PM.
&&

SYNOPTIC...58
MARINE/AVIATION/MESO...MIC

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
530 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

TXZ248>257-241100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
530 PM CDT WED JUN 23 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 10
PM...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MAINLY OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES TONIGHT. A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF RAIN HAS ALREADY
FALLEN ACROSS DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. URBAN AND LOW LYING AREAS AROUND
HEBBRONVILLE ARE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE FOR FLASH FLOODING TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND...KEEPING THE CHANCE FOR FLASH FLOODING IN OUR AREA.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS ANTICIPATED FOR RAINFALL REPORTS.
EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ASKED TO MONITOR WEATHER CONDITIONS VERY
CLOSELY.