Flash Flood Warning 23, NWS Brownsville, TX

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 230331
FFSBRO
TXC247-230400-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
820 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR STARR COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 11 PM...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND RAINFALL 
RATES HAVE DIMINISHED...THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 2668 9901 2658 9916 2642 9911 2627 9861
      2678 9835 2678 9896

$$

000 
WGUS74 KBRO 230340 CCA
FFSBRO
TXC427-230400-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT...CORRECTED FOR UGC
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
820 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR STARR COUNTY WILL BE ALLOWED TO 
EXPIRE AT 11 PM...

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ALL OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS REMAINS IN EFFECT 
UNTIL 6 PM WEDNESDAY...

HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WARNED AREA AND RAINFALL 
RATES HAVE DIMINISHED...THEREFORE THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN 
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE.

LAT...LON 2668 9901 2658 9916 2642 9911 2627 9861
      2678 9835 2678 9896

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
405 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

.DISCUSSION...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ACROSS DEEP
SOUTH TEXAS.
&&

.SHORT TERM...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG A
SURFACE CONVERGENCE ZONE BETWEEN CORPUS CHRISTI AND ZAPATA.
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS
UPPER LEVEL FORCING AND LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS
DEEP SOUTH TEXAS. POPS ARE UP TO 70 PERCENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA
AND EXPECT THE BEST CHANCES FOR RAINFALL ARE TONIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH SCATTERED RAINFALL WEDNESDAY EVENING INTO
THURSDAY. PARTLY TO MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY THROUGH
MIDWEEK AS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY REMAIN TRAPPED BETWEEN THE MID
LATITUDE TROUGHING AND SUB TROPICAL JET. POPS MAY NEED TO BE BUMPED
UP THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS ATMOSPHERIC TRENDS APPEAR TO REMAIN WET
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIODS. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN GENERALLY
FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST...BUT OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF
COUNTIES WINDS WILL FLIP FROM SOUTH TO NORTHEAST BACK TO SOUTH AS
OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES OSCILLATE THROUGH THE REGION.
&&

.LONG TERM...A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS SETTLING IN OVER THE
GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS ALLOWING THE SUB TROPICAL JET TO DRIFT NEAR DEEP SOUTH
TEXAS.  THE GFS MODEL MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST CONTINUES TO SUGGEST A
WETNESS TREND THROUGH NEXT TUESDAY WITH PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION
AT 50 PERCENT THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS SCENARIO SEEMS UNLIKELY...SINCE
PROLONGED PERIODS OF RAINFALL ARE RARE IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...OUTSIDE
OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS DUE TO CAPPING AND THERMODYNAMIC CONSTRAINTS.
WILL KEEP SCATTERED POPS TO HEDGE...AND WATCH THE EXTENDED PERIODS.
&&

.MARINE...AT 1 PM BUOY020 REPORTED SOUTHEAST WINDS AROUND 18G27KTS
WITH 5 FOOT SEAS. A SERIES OF S/WVS WILL MOVE IN FROM THE WEST
TONIGHT CAUSING AN INCREASE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE STRONG THIS EVENING...THEREFORE WILL
MAINTAIN SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR BOTH THE LAGUNA AND THE GULF
WATERS.  MIGHT BE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA IN THE LAGUNA LATER TONIGHT.
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE AREA THROUGH THE END
OF THE WEEK AS THE S/WV TROUGHS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.  SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE WEEK AND FINALLY END BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE SUB-TROPICAL HIGH BUILDS BACK INTO DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH 23/03Z WITH
FLYING WEATHER CONDITIONS DROPPING INTO MVFR AND TEMPO IFR AFTER
23/06Z AS THUNDERSTORMS AND LOWER VISIBILITIES WILL IMPACT LOCAL
AIRFIELDS OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
&&

.POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  78  90  78  89 77/ 70 70 30 30 30
BROWNSVILLE          78  90  78  91 77/ 70 70 30 30 30
HARLINGEN            78  90  78  91 77/ 70 70 30 30 30
MCALLEN              76  90  77  93 77/ 60 70 30 30 30
RIO GRANDE CITY      77  90  76  93 77/ 50 70 30 30 20
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   79  86  81  87 81/ 70 70 30 30 30
&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...FLOOD WATCH TXZ248>257.
                                   SCA GMZ130-150-155-170-175.
&&

SYNOPTIC...53
MARINE/AVIATION...65
MESO...MARTINEZ

THIS PRODUCT IS ALSO AVAILABLE ON OUR INTERNET WEB PAGE AT:
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/BRO

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
407 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

TXZ248>257-231100-
BROOKS-COASTAL CAMERON-COASTAL WILLACY-HIDALGO-INLAND CAMERON-
INLAND WILLACY-JIM HOGG-KENEDY-STARR-ZAPATA-
407 PM CDT TUE JUN 22 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS THROUGH 6 PM
WEDNESDAY....

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS RAPIDLY RISING WATER OR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...CHECK
PREPAREDNESS REQUIREMENTS...KEEP INFORMED...AND BE READY FOR QUICK
ACTION IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED OR IF A WARNING IS ISSUED.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

INCREASED CHANCES FOR RAIN THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL MAKE FLOODING
MORE LIKELY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY FOR
RAIN REPORTS. EMERGENCY MANAGERS ARE ASKED TO MONITOR WEATHER
CONDITIONS VERY CLOSELY.