Flash Flood Warning 24, NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

000 
WGUS75 KBOU 232347
FFSBOU
COC035-059-093-240100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
545 PM MDT FRI JUL 23 2004

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE BUFFALO CREEK AND 
HAYMAN BURN AREAS IN SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AND SOUTHERN 
JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL 700 PM MDT...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HAYMAN BURN AREA 
IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PARK COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

AT 545 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAIN OVER THE PARK COUNTY PORTION 
OF THE HAYMAN BURN AREA.  LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN WAS FALLING IN THE 
JEFFERSON AND DOUGLAS PORTIONS OF THE HAYMAN BURN AREA...AS WELL AS 
IN THE BUFFALO CREEK BURN AREA.

ABOUT 0.8 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN IN THE VERMILLION CREEK DRAINAGE 
BASIN IN EASTERN PARK COUNTY.  UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN 
IN THE BUFFALO CREEK BURN SCAR.  ANOTHER ONE HALF TO THREE QUARTERS 
OF AN INCH OF RAIN MAY FALL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS MOVING THROUGH 
THE BURN AREAS UNTIL 7 PM MDT. 

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. 
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE 
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY 
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK 
HIGHER GROUND.

HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF SMALL CREEKS...STREAMS...
AND DITCHES IN THE BUFFALO CREEK AND HAYMAN FIRE BURN SCARS. SOME 
DRAINAGE BASINS AFFECTED BY EXCESSIVE RUNOFF INCLUDE BUFFALO CREEK 
AND ITS TRIBUTARIES...VERMILLION CREEK...FOURMILE CREEK...GOOSE 
CREEK...SIXMILE CREEK...TRAIL CREEK...TURKEY CREEK...WEST 
CREEK...AND OTHER TRIBUTARIES OF THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER. MUD AND ASH 
FLOWS...AND ROCK SLIDES...CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS ROADS.

LAT...LON 3941 10524 3940 10539 3913 10540 3912 10506

$$

BARJENBRUCH

000 
WGUS75 KBOU 240024
FFSBOU
COC035-059-093-240100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
624 PM MDT FRI JUL 23 2004

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE BUFFALO CREEK AND HAYMAN BURN 
AREAS IN SOUTHWESTERN DOUGLAS COUNTY AND SOUTHERN JEFFERSON COUNTY 
HAS BEEN CANCELLED...
...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE HAYMAN BURN AREA 
IN EXTREME EAST CENTRAL PARK COUNTY UNTIL 800 PM MDT...

AT 624 PM MDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THUNDERSTORMS HAD ENDED ACROSS THE BUFFALO CREEK AND HAYMAN BURN 
AREAS.  ONLY LIGHT RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR THE REST OF THE EVENING.

IN THE PARK COUNTY PORTION OF THE HAYMAN BURN AREA...BETWEEN ONE 
HALF AND 1.25 INCHES OF RAIN FELL EARLIER THIS EVENING. AS A 
RESULT...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING WILL REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THAT AREA 
UNTIL 8 PM MDT.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY. 
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE 
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS 
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY 
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK 
HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3941 10524 3940 10539 3913 10540 3912 10506

$$

BARJENBRUCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
400 PM MDT FRI JUL 23 2004

.SHORT TERM DISCUSSION...ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON...THERE APPARENTLY
WAS JUST ENOUGH THINNING IN OVERCAST TO GIVE SOME SURFACE HEATING
AND SUPPORT THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE METRO AREA...WHERE CLOUDS WERE
THICKER...STORMS ARE MUCH WEAKER.  WILL SEE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEAST COLORADO THIS EVENING...GIVING WAY TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND AREAS OF FOG OVERNIGHT.

SATURDAY WILL BEGIN WITH LOW OVERCAST AND FOG.  THERE WILL BE SOME
UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON WHICH SHOULD HELP DESTABILIZE
THE ATMOSPHERE...THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW FAST LOW CLOUD ERODE AND
WILL IT BE WARM ENOUGH?  WIND PROFILE IN NORTHEAST COLORADO DOES
SUPPORT SUPERCELL STORMS.  SUSPECT ANOTHER ACTIVE AFTERNOON WHERE WE
CAN ERODE SOME OF THE LOW CLOUDS...MAINLY URBAN CORRIDOR...PALMER
DIVIDE...AND CHEYENNE RIDGE.

.LONG TERM DISCUSSION...SATURDAY NIGHT...ATMOSPHERE BELOW 500 MBS
STILL QUITE MOIST OVER THE PLAINS. THETA-E RIDGE UP ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE SHOULD BE THE PLAYGROUND FOR MOST OF THE SHOWER ACTIVITY
DURING THE EVENING HOURS WITH GENTLE EAST/SOUTHEAST LOW-LEVEL LOW.
COULD SEE A FEW EMBEDDED T-STORMS OVER THE FOOTHILLS AND I-25 URBAN
CORRIDOR AS WELL...BUT RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE ON THE LIGHT SIDE
SINCE THE INSTABILITY NOT ALL THAT GREAT. ON SUNDAY...MODELS SHOW
QUITE A BIT OF DRYING ALOFT WITH NWLY FLOW. SOME OF THIS DRY AIR
APPEARS TO MIX DOWN OVER THE MTNS AND DOWN THE EAST SLOPE OF THE
FRONT RANGE DURING THE DAY AS THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF 40-50KT JET
SAGS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA IN THE MORNING. NEG
Q-DIVERGENCE (DOWNWARD FORCING) ALSO INCREASES AT MID-LEVELS THROUGH
THE DAY. GENTLE DOWNSLOPE FLOW COMING OFF THE FRONT RANGE SHOULD GO
INTO LOWERING DEWPOINTS WITHIN THE I-25 URBAN CORRIDOR...WHILE
FARTHER OUT ONTO THE PLAINS...MODELS NOT AS FAST TO WARM AND DRY
THINGS BELOW 700 MBS AS SELY BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SHOULD KEEP DEWPTS
FROM SLIPPING BELOW THE LOWER 50S. THE PLAINS AIRMASS LOOKS CAPPED
FOR MOST OF THE DAY BASED ON THETA/LAPSE RATE CROSS SECTIONS AND
INTERACTIVE SOUNDINGS. SHOULD SEE ANY STORMS MOVE OFF THE FRONT
RANGE OR PALMER DIVIDE...EXPECT TO SEE FAIRLY QUICK DECAY AS THEY
MOVE INTO THIS LESS THAN FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. WHEREAS STEEP LAPSE
RATES IN THE AFTERNOON MAY BE ALL THAT/S NEEDED TO GENERATE A FEW
T-STORMS OVER THE FRONT RANGE AND URBAN CORRIDOR. CLOUD BASES MAY BE
HIGH SO GUSTY MICROBURST WINDS AND LIGHTNING MORE OF A CONCERN.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...ATMOSPHERE GRADUALLY WARMS AND DRIES AS
THE UPPER RIDGE EXPANDS EASTWARD ACROSS THE STATE BY MIDWEEK. BY
LATE WEEK MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER
COLORADO AND MOS GUIDANCE SHOWS TEMPERATURES AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE
NORMAL. FOR NOW WILL KEEP AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AFTERNOON AND
EVENING T-STORMS IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.BOU WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

RTG/MRB

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
210 PM MDT FRI JUL 23 2004

COZ030>051-241200-
JACKSON COUNTY BELOW 9000 FEET-WEST JACKSON AND WEST GRAND
COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-GRAND AND SUMMIT COUNTIES BELOW 9000
FEET-SOUTH AND EAST JACKSON/LARIMER/NORTH AND NORTHEAST GRAND/
NORTHWEST BOULDER COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-SOUTH AND SOUTHEAST
GRAND/WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST BOULDER/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/
SUMMIT/NORTH AND WEST PARK COUNTIES ABOVE 9000 FEET-LARIMER AND
BOULDER COUNTIES BETWEEN 6000 AND 9000 FEET-JEFFERSON AND WEST
DOUGLAS COUNTIES ABOVE 6000 FEET/GILPIN/CLEAR CREEK/NORTHEAST PARK
COUNTIES BELOW 9000 FEET-CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST PARK COUNTY-LARIMER
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTHWEST WELD COUNTY-BOULDER AND JEFFERSON
COUNTIES BELOW 6000 FEET/WEST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-NORTH DOUGLAS
COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/DENVER/WEST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES/
EAST BROOMFIELD COUNTY-ELBERT/CENTRAL AND EAST DOUGLAS COUNTIES
ABOVE 6000 FEET-NORTHEAST WELD COUNTY-CENTRAL AND SOUTH WELD
COUNTY-MORGAN COUNTY-CENTRAL AND EAST ADAMS AND ARAPAHOE COUNTIES-
NORTH AND NORTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/NORTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-SOUTHEAST ELBERT COUNTY BELOW 6000 FEET/SOUTH LINCOLN
COUNTY-LOGAN COUNTY-WASHINGTON COUNTY-SEDGWICK COUNTY-PHILLIPS
COUNTY-
210 PM MDT FRI JUL 23 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND NORTH CENTRAL
COLORADO.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

WITH A SURFACE HIGH OVER NEBRASKA...MOIST UPSLOPE CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL TODAY AND TONIGHT TO THE EAST OF THE FOOTHILLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOL...AND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN SHOWERS WITH
AREAS OF FOG.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS TODAY AND EARLY THIS EVENING.  A FEW STORMS THAT MOVE OUT
OF THE FOOTHILLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING UP TO 1.5 INCHES OF
RAIN PER HOUR...AND LOCAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH STORMS THROUGH
EARLY EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER THE URBAN CORRIDOR AND PALMER
DIVIDE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN UNSEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST ON SATURDAY
WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS AND PALMER DIVIDE. THE COOL TEMPERATURES WILL LIMIT
INSTABILITY SO THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN LOW.
THE MAIN THREAT FROM LATE DAY STORMS WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL ONTO
ALREADY SATURATED GROUND THAT MAY LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.

FOR SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...THE AIRMASS BEGINS A WARMING AND
DRYING TREND SO LESS WIDESPREAD AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED.  THE THREAT OF ANY SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING WILL BE ADDRESSED IN FUTURE UPDATES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

RTG/MRB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
343 PM MDT FRI JUL 23 2004

..TIME...   ...EVENT...     ...CITY LOCATION...      ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....     ..COUNTY LOCATION...ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0250 PM     FLASH FLOOD      THORNTON                39.89N 104.96W
07/23/2004                   ADAMS              CO   COUNTY OFFICIAL

            CARS STRANDED IN THREE TO FOUR FEET OF WATER IN THE ROAD
            AND PARKING LOT AT 83RD AND WASHINGTON.

&&

JK