Flash Flood Warning 19, NWS Birmingham, AL

000 
WGUS74 KBMX 300049
FFSBHM
ALC119-300130-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
749 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR SUMTER COUNTY UNTIL 
830 PM CDT.

AT 749 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED 
THAT 4 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 3 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON 
ACROSS PARTS OF SUMTER COUNTY...MAINLY OVER WESTERN PARTS NEAR THE 
EMELLE AND YORK AREAS.  ALTHOUGH ONLY AN ADDITIONAL HALF INCH OF 
RAIN IS EXPECTED OVER SUMTER COUNTY...EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM THE 
HEAVY RAINFALL FROM EARLIER WILL LIKELY CAUSE FLASH FLOODING OF 
LOCAL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS ACROSS SUMTER COUNTY THROUGH 
830 PM CDT.  THE EMELLE...LIVINGSTON...YORK...AND BELLAMY AREA WILL 
BE MOST AFFECTED.

MOST FLASH FLOODING DEATHS ARE AUTOMOBILE RELATED. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO
CROSS BRIDGES...DIPS...OR OTHER LOW SPOTS IF WATER COVERS THE ROAD.
NEVER TRY TO CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. 
TO ESCAPE RISING WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

CALL 1-800-856-0758 TO REPORT FLOODING CONDITIONS.

LAT...LON 3281 8818 3285 8833 3233 8836 3236 8804

$$

000 
WGUS74 KBMX 300130
FFSBHM
ALC119-300200-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
830 PM CDT TUE JDN 2U  004

THE FLASH FLOOD HAFNOND FOR SUMTER COUNTY HAS BEYNHASLBWED TO
EXPIRE...

A. 3 
M CDT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RADAR INDICATED THAT RAINFALL
HAS DIMINISHED ACROSS SUMTER COUNTY. REPORTS ACROSS THE AREA ALSO
SHOW THAT THE FLOODINGFTORDAN IS OVER...THUS THE WARNIHG HASNBEEN
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. XI
ELTHOUGH THE THREAT FOR ADTIFIRNAL FLOODING HAS DIMINISHED...SOME 
ROADS HAVE FLOODED IN THE AREA AND HAVE BEEN CLOSED.  ANY FLOODING 
THAT REMAINS SHOULD CONTINUE TO RECEDE THROUGH THR UEHAINDER OF THE 
EVENOOD EFOND T...LON 3281 8818 3236 8803 32 3 8836 3285 8833

$$

$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
314 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

.SYNOPSIS...RAIN LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STICK AROUND THROUGH AT LEAST
THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY LESS CHANCES TOWARDS
THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. WE CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY THE SAME
WEATHER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...WELL...NOT MUCH CHANGE WAS
DONE TO THE SHORT TERM. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
MOVE ALONG A STALLED FRONT JUST NORTH OF ALABAMA AROUND THE TENNESSEE
AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. A GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS IS
EXPECTED TOMORROW AS ONE OF THOSE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEMS MOVES ACROSS
THE AREA. BOTH GFS AND ETA MODELS SHOW A GOOD AMOUNT OF RAIN OVER THE
AREA...SO LIKELY POPS FITS WELL. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL BE
HARDER TO FORECAST AS IT ALL DEPENDS ON CLOUD COVER.

THE SAME PATTERN WILL OCCUR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVES ACROSS NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE STATE. WENT WITH
LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREAS...AND JUST A CHANCE FOR THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA.

FOR FRIDAY...THINGS CONTINUE TO LOOK WET ALTHOUGH THESE SHOWERS WILL
BE THE HIT AND MISS KIND. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW WET WEATHER ON
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BOTH MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
CONSISTENT...BUT GFS SEEMS TO BE HANDLING THINGS BETTER. SO...
DECIDED TO PRETTY MUCH GO WITH THE GFS SOLUTION THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...DIDNT REALLY CHANGE MUCH IN
THE EXTENDED. ADJUSTED POPS ACCORDING TO NEW MODEL DATA. WEEKEND
STILL LOOKS A BIT WET AS A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE COMBINED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE WEST. ALTHOUGH THE SURFACE
LOW IS NOT FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE STATE...IT WILL MOVE CLOSE
ENOUGH THAT WILL BRING ADDITIONAL RAIN. I WAS VERY MODERATE ON THE
RAIN FOR NOW. WAITING TO SEE HOW THE NEXT FEW MODEL RUNS HANDLE THIS
LOW AND WHERE IT WILL BE POSITIONED.

A GLIMMER OF HOPE MAY COME AROUND THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK AS
LONG RANGE GFS SHOW A DRYING TREND. DOES THAT MEAN WILL SEE THE SUN
FOR MORE THAT AN HOUR? TIME WILL TELL. FOR THE TIME BEING...IT LOOKS
LIKE RAIN WILL STICK AROUND FOR A WHILE LONGER.

&&

.PRELIMINARY NUMBERS...

BIRMINGHAM 70 82 69 84 71 / 50 60 40 60
MONTGOMERY 70 86 70 90 72 / 40 60 40 50
&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

10-MONTANEZ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

ALZ011>015-017>050-292030-
AUTAUGA-BARBOUR-BIBB-BLOUNT-BULLOCK-CALHOUN-CHAMBERS-CHEROKEE-
CHILTON-CLAY-CLEBURNE-COOSA-DALLAS-ELMORE-ETOWAH-FAYETTE-GREENE-HALE-
JEFFERSON-LAMAR-LEE-LOWNDES-MACON-MARENGO-MARION-MONTGOMERY-PERRY-
PICKENS-PIKE-RANDOLPH-RUSSELL-SHELBY-ST CLAIR-SUMTER-TALLADEGA-
TALLAPOOSA-TUSCALOOSA-WALKER-WINSTON-
1253 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE COUNTIES SERVED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN BIRMINGHAM.

.DAY ONE (THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT)...

A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH
MAY PRODUCE SOME LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE.  HOWEVER...NO ORGANIZED
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...

AT THIS TIME...NO ORGANIZED HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTERS IS NOT
EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
526 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

ALZ024-292315-
JEFFERSON-
526 PM CDT TUE JUN 29 2004

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR JEFFERSON COUNTY UNTIL
615 PM CDT...

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE FROM AN APPROACHING
THUNDERSTORM...

AT 526 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
THUNDERSTORM OVER CAHABA HEIGHTS...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

THIS THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT AREAS IN AND NEAR CAHABA
HEIGHTS...MOUNTAIN BROOK...BIRMINGHAM...HOMEWOOD...AND HOOVER
THROUGH 615 PM CDT.

THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM THESE STORMS IS MINOR FLOODING. PONDING OF
WATER ON ROADWAYS... FLOODING OF LOW-LYING AREAS...RISING WATER
ALONG CREEKS...AND UNDERPASSES WITH STANDING WATER ARE POSSIBLE.
REMEMBER...DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS ROADWAYS COVERED WITH WATER OF
UNKNOWN DEPTH.

OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM
AS WELL.