Flash Flood Warning 41, NWS Albany, NY

000 
WGUS71 KALY 282021
FFSALY
NYC111-282115-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
320 PM EST SUN NOV 28 2004

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN ALBANY NEW YORK HAS CANCELLED THE 
FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY...

IN EAST CENTRAL NEW YORK
     ULSTER

RAINFALL HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA AND CREEKS AND STREAMS HAVE BEGUN 
TO RECEDE.

$$

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
400 AM EST SUN NOV 28 2004

.SYNOPSIS...INTENSE SURFACE LOW OVER MICHIGAN ASSOCIATED WITH
DEEP NEGATIVELY TILTED 500 HPA TROF PRETTY MUCH ON FORCAST TRACK
WITH SECOND LOW CENTER GETTING ORGANIZED ON THE CAROLINA COAST.
OCCLUDED FRONT EXTENDS SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS TO WESTERN
SOUTH CAROLINA WHERE IT THEN CURVES WEST AS A COLD FRONT INTO THE
GULF. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN MARITIMES AND OVER THE
PLAINS. SUBTROPICAL JET EXTENDS FROM SOUTHERN UTAH EAST TO
KENTUCKY. 500 HPA RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC COASTS.

.SHORT TERM (TODAY AND TONIGHT)...SURFACE LOW ON TRACK TO MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO CANADA AS SECOND LOW RACES NORTH TO THE NJ COAST
AS THE FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION FROM NEAR BUFFALO AT 12Z
TO AROUND THE NEW ENGLAND BORDER AT 00Z. THE ETA AND GFS ARE IN
FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT AND PUT THE FRONTAL PASSAGE AT ALBANY
BETWEEN 5PM AND 6 PM WITH THE BEST DYNAMIC FORCING FOR THE 3
HRS PRIOR TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...STARTING AROUND NOON IN OUR
WESTERN AREA...AROUND 2 TO 3 PM IN ALBANY...AND 4 TO 5 PM IN
OUR WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ZONES. WILL KEEP THE WIND ADVISORY
AS POTENTIAL DEFINITELY THERE...MAY EVEN COME CLOSE TO WARNING
CRITERIA OVER EXPOSED RIDGES. WILL LOOK AT TRYING TO TWEAK THE
GRIDS FOR CONVECTION DURING THE PREFRONTAL FORCING. STARTING
IN THE EVENING WEST AND OVERNIGHT EAST CONDITIONS SLOWLY
IMPROVE...BUT EXPECT CLOUDS TO PERSIST WITH A CHANCE OF
MIXED PRECIP LINGERING ON ESPECIALLY NORTH AND WEST.
EXPECT SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL OCCUR DURING THE PREFRONTAL
WINDOW BUT FEEL OVER MOST AREAS FLOODING WILL MOSTLY BE
CONFINED TO ROADS AND URBAN AREAS AT THE PEAK OF THE RAIN AND
WILL QUICKLY SUBSIDE ONCE THE FRONT PASSES. THE ONE EXCEPTION
IS THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND THE UPPER MOHAWK RIVER AREA. LAKE
DELTA IS ALREADY FULL AND THIS REGION RECIEVED ONE TO THREE INCHES
OF RAIN OVER THANKSGIVING...SO WILL GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR
HERKIMER COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON...WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN POTENTIAL
SHORTLY AFTER NOON AND THE POSSIBILITY OF FLOODING LINGERING
FOR TWO TO THREE HOURS AFTER THE RAIN STOPS.
&&

.LONG TERM (MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)...MONDAY LOOKS FAIR. ON
TUESDAY...MODELS BRING MID LEVEL CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM AIR
ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVING OUT OF EASTERN TEXAS.
PERSONALLY FEEL THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE IS OVERDONE INITIALLY WITH
THE CLOUDS MORE LIKELY MOVING IN LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR TUESDAY
EVENING AS THE NEXT SYSTEM GETS ORGANIZED ALONG THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS.  THE GFS LEANS TOWARD SNOW OR MIXTURE TO THE
NORTH WITH RAIN PREDOMINATING. A HIGH BRIEFLY PUSHES IN ON
WEDNESDAY. A WEAK LOW PASSES NORTH OF THE REGION THURSDAY
AND AGAIN LATE FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION...TODAY MAY START OUT AS MVFR OR EVEN VFR IN OUR
EASTERN ZONES BUT WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE TO IFR AS THE AREA
OF PREFRONTAL FORCING APPROACHES. CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY
IMPROVE A FEW HOURS AFTER THE FRONT PASSES ALTHOUGH LAKE
ENHANCED LOW CLOUDS WILL PROBABLY CAUSE MVFR AND ISOLATED
IFR CONDITIONS OVER THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS AND MUCH OF
THE MOHAWK VALLEY. A STRONG LOW LEVEL JET WILL MOVES ACROSS THE
REGION SO HAVE LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE TAFS THROUGH
MID DAY.  WINDS AROUND 2000 FEET ARE EXPECTED TO BE FROM THE
SOUTHEAST AT 40 TO 50 KNOTS.
&&

.HYDROLOGY...SOME SIGNIFICANT RISES POSSIBLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. MODELS SHOW VERY STRONG UPWARD MOTION PRIOR TO THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE AND WOULD ESPECT THE HEAVIEST RAIN AND CONVECTION
TO OCCUR DURING THAT PERIOD. ALSO...ESPECIALLY IN THE CATSKILLS...
COULD SEE ENHANCED UPSLOPE RAIN AS WELL. QUICK INCH OR INCH
AND A HALF MAY FALL IN ONE TO TWO HOURS WITH FRONT. FFG LOW ENOUGH
THAT SOME FLOODING POSSIBLE ON SMALL STREAMS WHERE HEAVY DOWNPOURS
OCCUR. LARGER WESTERN ADIRONDACK STREAMS AND UPPER MOHAWK COULD SEE
FLOODING AS BASINS RECEIVED AROUND THREE INCHES OF RAIN ON
THANKSGIVING.  ALSO RADAR HAS STARTED SHOWING RETURNS OF SIGNIFICANT
PRECIP IN THE CATSKILL HIGH PEAKS UPLIFT AREA SO AT THE LAST MINUTE
HAVE DECIDED TO GO WITH A FLOOD WATCH FOR WESTERN GREENE AND ULSTER
COUNTIES FOR ALL DAY THRU 7PM.
&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...WIND ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
MA...WIND ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
NY...WIND ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
     FLOOD WATCH HERKIMER CO THIS AFTERNOON.
     FLOOD WATCH WRN GREENE/WRN ULSTER TODAY.
VT...WIND ADVISORY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
445 AM EST SUN NOV 28 2004

CTZ001-013-MAZ001-025-NYZ032-033-038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-
082>084-VTZ013>015-291100-
BENNINGTON VT-EASTERN ALBANY NY-EASTERN COLUMBIA NY-
EASTERN DUTCHESS NY-EASTERN GREENE NY-EASTERN RENSSELAER NY-
EASTERN SCHENECTADY NY-EASTERN ULSTER NY-EASTERN WINDHAM VT-
HAMILTON NY-MONTGOMERY NY-NORTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-NORTHERN FULTON NY-
NORTHERN HERKIMER NY-NORTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-NORTHERN SARATOGA NY-
NORTHERN WARREN NY-NORTHERN WASHINGTON NY-SCHOHARIE NY-
SOUTHEAST WARREN NY-SOUTHERN BERKSHIRE MA-SOUTHERN FULTON NY-
SOUTHERN HERKIMER NY-SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD CT-SOUTHERN SARATOGA NY-
SOUTHERN WASHINGTON NY-WESTERN ALBANY NY-WESTERN COLUMBIA NY-
WESTERN DUTCHESS NY-WESTERN GREENE NY-WESTERN RENSSELAER NY-
WESTERN SCHENECTADY NY-WESTERN ULSTER NY-WESTERN WINDHAM VT-
445 AM EST SUN NOV 28 2004

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND ADJACENT
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.

.DAY ONE...
A WIND ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL ZONES THROUGH 8 PM TODAY.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN GREENE AND WESTERN
ULSTER COUNTIES THROUGH 7 PM TODAY.
A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR HERKIMER COUNTY FROM NOON TO
7 PM TODAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT REQUESTED AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO SEND REPORTS OF ANY FLOODING OR
WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BY TELEPHONE OR
USING THE SPOTTER REPORT PAGE THAT MAY BE ACCESSED FROM
WFO ALBANYS WEBSITE.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER TODAY.

NEW YORK STATEWIDE POLICE INFORMATION NETWORK
TROOP C
0811AM     SUN NOV 28 2004
#2 0000002 000
CBSO WLSR QTRF QHQT APTS WAPT
05124    FILE 28   BROOME COUNTY SHERIFF   NY0030000         NOV 28-04
TO       NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
         ATTENTION SEMO DUTY OFFICER

                               ROAD FLOODING

COUNTY(S) AFFECTED: BROOME

CHECK ONE OR MORE AS APPROPRIATE:
(X) - ROAD FLOODING
(X) - ROADSIDE CULVERTS FLOODING
(X) - STORM SEWERS BACKING UP CAUSING LOCAL URBAN FLOODING
(X) - WATER COLLECTING IN LOW LYING UNDERPASSES
( ) - OTHER
LOCATION: TOWNS OF FENTON, VESTAL, BINGHAMTON, VILLAGE OF ENDICOTT, CITY
OF BINGHAMTON
DATE AND TIME CONDITION STARTED: 11/28/04  0800
NEAREST TOWN/CITY: BROOME COUNTY
REMARKS: ROADWAYS COVERED ON ROUTE 26 IN SOUTH VESTAL, PINE ST TWN OF FENTON,
VESTAL AVE CITY OF BINGHAMTON, NANTICOKE AVE VILLAGE OF ENDICOTT
AUTH PHONE #: 607 778-1911

AUTH MICHAEL F ASWAD    BROOME CNTY EMERG MANAGER   ROGERS/8-10 AM

OPER - ROGERS,CHARLES M               0810