Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Tucson, AZ

SOUTHEAST ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
245 PM MST SAT JUL 12 2003

.SYNOPSIS...STRONG HIGH PRESSURE HAS DEVELOPED AN EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE AREA. MOISTURE OVER THE STATE WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY...BUT NOT AS NUMEROUS AS FRIDAY.
SLIGHTLY DRIER WEATHER ON SUNDAY WILL RESULT IN A DECREASE IN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE CENTER EXPANDS OVER THE
REGION AND SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHWEST.

.DISCUSSION...CURRENTLY RADARS ARE DETECTING ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG THE RIM COUNTRY OF GREENLEE COUNTY AS
ANTICIPATED. A FEW SHOWERS DEVELOPING SOUTH OF TUCSON...NEAR NOGALES
BUT NOT NEAR AS MANY AS THIS TIME YESTERDAY. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS
INDICATE THAT THE AIRMASS IS NOT AS UNSTABLE AS YESTERDAY WITH
DEWPOINTS GENERALLY LOWER BY 2 TO 5 DEGREES THAN THIS TIME YESTERDAY.

MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT IN TAKING THE 500MB HIGH OVER NORTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA TO A POSITION A LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH AND WEST DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY AND THIS CONTINUES THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY. MEAN
RH VALUES DECREASE AS A RESULT OF THIS CHANGE IN POSITION AND THUS
EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TO DECREASE THROUGH
TUESDAY. BY WEDNESDAY THINGS BEGIN TO CHANGE AS THE UPPER HIGH
SHIFTS TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION ALLOWING MOISTURE TO SPREAD ACROSS
ARIZONA FROM THE EAST WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED OVER
NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AND SCATTERED STORMS OVER THE
SOUTHEAST PORTIONS...AND THIS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE EARLY PART OF
THE WEEKEND.

AS THE HIGH SETTLES TO THE SOUTHWEST EXPECT TEMPS TO INCREASE ON
SUNDAY...BUT WITH THE HIGH MOVING BACK TO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BY
MIDWEEK EXPECT AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE ALONG WITH HEIGHT FALLS AND
TEMPS WILL BE SEVERAL DEGREES LOWER TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
WEEK.

MOLLERE

.TWC...NONE.

AZZ019-029>035-131400-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TUCSON AZ
1200 PM MST SAT JUL 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ARIZONA

.DAY ONE...TODAY
THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

SYNOPSIS...MOISTURE OVER SOUTHEAST ARIZONA WILL GENERATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN TODAY.  ALTHOUGH STILL EXPECTING
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN COCHISE AND SANTA CRUZ
COUNTIES...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED COMPARED TO YESTERDAY
AS MOVE NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER. SOME
THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE SEVERE...PRODUCING WIND GUST IN EXCESS OF 60
MPH.  ALSO THE PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION EXCEEDING ONE INCH WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...PRIMARILY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS.

DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD HAVE NO PROBLEM DEVELOPING LATER
THIS AFTERNOON SINCE MOISTURE IS NOT A LIMITING FACTOR. DEW POINT
TEMPERATURES ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA UP IN THE MID 50S TO 60S THIS
MORNING. ALTHOUGH THE PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM THE 12Z KTUS
SOUNDING DROPPED FROM 1.30 YESTERDAY MORNING TO 1.18...THERE STILL
ENOUGH TO HELP PRODUCE SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE ARIZONA AND MEXICO BORDER IN
THE DEEPER MOISTURE SEEN FROM THE GOES TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
VALUES. HOWEVER...DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE ISOLATED AS MOVE
FURTHER NORTH.  A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD ALSO BE SEVERE...WITH WIND
GUSTS EXCEEDING 60 MPH AND POSSIBLY PEA SIZE OR SMALLER HAIL IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.  ALTHOUGH PRECIPITABLE WATER DECREASED
SLIGHTLY...THERE STILL IS ENOUGH MOISTURE ACROSS SOUTHEAST ARIZONA
TO PRODUCE PRECIPITATION GREATER THAN AN INCH AT THE HIGHEST
ELEVATIONS...ESPECIALLY NEAR THE DEEPER MOISTURE ALONG ARIZONA AND
MEXICO BORDER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.