Severe Thunderstorm Warning 53, NWS Tulsa, OK

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
825 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

AT 8PM THE FILLING SURFACE LOW WAS TRACKING THROUGH NORTHEAST OSAGE
COUNTY WITH THE DRY LINE EXTENDING THROUGH THE WEST SIDE OF TULSA
AND ON SOUTH TO 20 MILES WEST OF DURANT.  THE COLD FRONT EXTENDED
NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE LOW CENTER.

CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE WEAKENING ALONG THE DRY LINE AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT IS BECOMING UNLIKELY.  THE CLUSTER OF STORMS IN
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA SHOULD BE THE LAST TO COME OFF THE DRY LINE.
CAPES TO AROUND 1000 J/KG PERSIST AHEAD OF THESE CELLS INTO THE
FIRST TIER OF ARKANSAS COUNTIES...SO INDICATIONS ARE THAT THEY WILL
POSE A THREAT TO THE AREA NEAR AND NORTH OF FORT SMITH AND SOUTH OF
FAYETTEVILLE.  LOCAL ANALYSIS TECHNIQUES SHOW ENHANCED SR-HELICITY
AND CONVERGNCE IN THE ARKANSAS RIVER VALLEY THAT MAY ALSO HELP TO
SUSTAIN A SEVERE THREAT.

WHILE THE TORNADO THREAT SHOULD DIMINISH WITH TIME...WE CONTINUE TO
RECEIVE REPORTS OF BRIEF TORNADOES WITH THE ACTIVITY IN HASKEL AND
PITTSBURG COUNTY.  HAVE JUST RECEIVED A REPORT OF A SMALL TORNADO
NEAR WHITEFIELD...SO A TORNADO THREAT WILL PERSIST FOR ANOTHER HOUR
OR TWO.

MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ALONG THE COLD FRONT
NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW AND STILL EXPECT THE ACTIVITY IN
SOUTHEAST KANSAS TO BUILD INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA BY 03Z/04Z.  THE
SEVERE THREAT FROM THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD BE WIND AND HAIL DUE TO THE
LINEAR FORCING.

FORECAST ID= 8

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>058-060>076-201000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUPERCELLS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A DRY LINE AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTERSECT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT OVER
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.  A TORNADO WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

GW

ARZ001-010-019-029-OKZ049-053-055>058-060>063-065>076-200700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
853 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#135 UNTIL 200 AM CDT SUNDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 4 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

BENTON                CRAWFORD              WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 22 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 DELAWARE
MAYES                 NOWATA                OKMULGEE
OTTAWA                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BARTLESVILLE...BENTONVILLE...
BROKEN ARROW...CEDARVILLE...CLAREMORE...CLAYTON...EUFAULA...
FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...HUGO...JAY...MCALESTER...MIAMI...
MOUNTAINBURG...MUSKOGEE...NATURAL DAM...NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...
POTEAU...PRYOR...ROGERS...SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...SILOAM SPRINGS...
SPRINGDALE...STIGLER...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VAN BUREN...
VINITA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.