Severe Thunderstorm Warning 48, NWS Tulsa, OK

MESOSCALE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
431 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

...INCREASING TORNADO POTENTIAL IN OSAGE AND PAWNEE COUNTIES...

THE DRY LINE HAS CONTINUED TO SURGE NORTHWARD AHEAD OF THE
SURFACE LOW THAT WAS TRACKING ACROSS NORTHWEST OKLAHOMA.
AT 4PM THE DRY LINE EXTENDED FROM JUST SOUTH OF ENID TO
20 MILES SOUTHWEST OF STILWATER TO CHANDLER AND ON SOUTH
TO 30 MILES WEST OF DURANT.

CELLS DEVELOPING ALONG THE DRY LINE FROM NEAR ENID TO WEST OF
PAWNEE WILL ALSO QUICKLY BECOME SUPERCELL STORMS.  CAPE VALUES
AROUND 2000 J/KG AND STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT STORM
ROTATION.  BACKED SURFACE WINDS AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW FROM
TULSA WEST WILL ENHANCE A TORNADO THREAT.

THE CELL THAT JUST PROMPTED THE TORNADO WARNING IS A LEFT SPLIT
FROM THE SUPERCELL MOVING INTO TULSA COUNTY.  THE STORM IN
SOUTHEAST OSAGE COUNTY WILL PRODUCE SEVERE HAIL AND IS SHOWING A
DEEP ANTICYCLONIC ROTATION.

FORECAST ID= 8

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>058-060>076-201000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
130 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PROBABLE ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

...SUPERCELLS THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
   EVENING WITH THE THREAT FOR TORNADOES...

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
THIS AFTERNOON IN CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AHEAD OF A DRY LINE AND MOVE
NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN OKLAHOMA BY LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING.
THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL INTERSECT WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY LEFT OVER
FROM EARLIER CONVECTION. THIS WILL PRODUCE A THREAT FOR LARGE
DAMAGING HAIL AND TORNADOES.

RESIDENTS ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA SHOULD CONTINUE TO CLOSELY MONITOR
FORECASTS THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE LATEST UPDATES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WARNING PROBABILITIES CAN BE FOUND IN
THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN PROBABILITIES
REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON WEDNESDAY
AS A STRONG UPPER LOW MOVES INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON.  A TORNADO WATCH IS
ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA
THIS AFTERNOON. EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO
CLOSELY MONITOR FORECASTS FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

GW

OKZ049-053>076-200200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
226 PM CDT SAT APR 19 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH #132 UNTIL
900 PM CDT SATURDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 25 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              OKFUSKEE
SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 CRAIG                 CREEK
DELAWARE              MAYES                 NOWATA
OKMULGEE              OSAGE                 OTTAWA
PAWNEE                ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER               WASHINGTON

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

CHOCTAW               HASKELL               LATIMER
LE FLORE              MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF ANTLERS...BARTLESVILLE...BRISTOW...BROKEN
ARROW...CLAREMORE...CLAYTON...EUFAULA...HUGO...JAY...MCALESTER...
MIAMI...MUSKOGEE...NOWATA...OKEMAH...OKMULGEE...PAWHUSKA...PAWNEE...
POTEAU...PRYOR...SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...STIGLER...STILWELL...
TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VINITA...WAGONER AND WILBURTON.