Severe Thunderstorm Warning 280, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
253 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

TWO ONGOING AREAS OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON...ONE ALONG WEAK SFC
BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS SE OKLAHOMA FROM NEAR POTEAU TO MCALESTER...
AND ANOTHER TERRAIN ENHANCED BAND ALONG OZARK PLATEAU EXTENDING TO
NEAR MUSKOGEE. STORMS HAVE BEEN PULSING AND NOT MOVING MUCH. BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN LOOKS TO BE MAIN THREAT WITH NO ORGANIZED SEVERE
EXPECTED...BUT STRONGER CELLS COULD DROP SOME SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS. A FEW SHOWERS ALSO TRYING TO POP ALONG KANSAS BORDER. FIRST
PERIOD POPS WILL LIKELY BE A LAST MINUTE DECISION BASED ON RADAR
TRENDS...MOST LIKELY WILL BE CONFINED TO SOUTH OF I-44 WITH BEST ODDS
FARTHER SOUTH. EXPECT TO BE MOSTLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN...HOWEVER WILL
HANG ON TO CHANCE THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS FAR SE OKLAHOMA AS WEAK
MID LEVEL WAVE DRIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND MAY KEEP ACTIVITY
LINGERING AFTER DARK. TEMPS TONIGHT SHOULD BE CLOSE TO RECENT NIGHTS
AND EXPECT SOME PATCHY FOG...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MENTION IN FORECAST.

ONCE AGAIN THE BIG PICTURE CHANGES LITTLE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
WEAK MID LEVEL TROUGH WILL MEANDER ACROSS THE AREA WITH SOME TYPE OF
SFC BOUNDARY HANGING OVER SE OK THROUGH W CENTRAL ARK. FINER
DETAILS TOUGH TO SORT OUT. MAINLY DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION
THROUGH MONDAY ALONG AND NEAR BOUNDARY AND OVER HIGHER TERRAIN OF
OZARK AND OUACHITAS EACH DAY. VIRTUALLY NO AIRMASS CHANGE AND WILL
STICK WITH A PERSISTENCE TEMP FORECAST...CLOSE TO GUIDANCE NUMBERS
THROUGHOUT.

SLOW TRANSITION OUT OF THIS PATTERN WILL FINALLY OCCUR NEXT WEEK...
BUT STILL ENOUGH UNCERTAINTY WITH EVENTUAL FATE OF WEAK UPPER LOW TO
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS THROUGH THURSDAY. GFS AND ENSEMBLES
STILL SHOWING TRANSITION INTO MORE SUMMER PATTERN BY LATE IN THE
WEEK AND WILL STICK WITH DRY AND HOTTER FORECAST.

TUL   66   86   66   86  / 10   10   10   10
FSM   66   85   66   85  / 30   20   20   20
MLC   66   85   66   85  / 30   30   30   20
BVO   63   85   63   85  / 10   10   10   10
FYV   61   82   61   83  / 20   20   20   20
BYV   61   82   61   82  / 20   20   20   20
MKO   66   85   66   85  / 30   20   20   20
MIO   62   83   62   83  / 10   10   10   10
F10   66   85   66   85  / 20   20   20   20
HHW   67   85   67   85  / 40   30   30   30

FORECAST ID= 14

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

SULLIVAN

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>064-066>076-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.   ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS
ALOFT WILL REMAIN RATHER WEAK...MODERATE INSTABILITIES WILL ALLOW
SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS TO BRIEFLY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH
GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER
HOWEVER IS NOT EXPECTED. DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT AND HEAVY RAINFALL
RATES IN ASSOCIATION WITH THESE STORMS...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING
WILL BE POSSIBLE. SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHWEST ARKANSAS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS.

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE INTO NORTHEAST TEXAS
OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
PRIMARILY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND WEST-CENTRAL ARKANSAS.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THURSDAY...
HOWEVER...WELL ORGANIZED CONVECTION IS NOT APPARENT AT THIS
TIME.  THERE WILL BE A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A WARMER AND DRIER
SUMMER WEATHER PATTERN TOWARD THE END OF THE UPCOMING WEEK.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT. EMERGENCY
MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS HOWEVER SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE
LATEST FORECASTS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

OKZ069-072-142130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
323 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 430 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     SOUTHEASTERN ADAIR

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN SEQUOYAH

AT 323 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES
NORTHWEST OF SHORT...MOVING SOUTH AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL
BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...MULDROW...ROLAND AND SHORT.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT IN CASE THE ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

OKZ073-075-142145-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
339 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 445 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     PITTSBURG AND NORTHWESTERN LATIMER

AT 339 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 6 MILES
NORTH OF GOWEN...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE
AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...GOWEN...MCALESTER...DOW...BACHE...
ALDERSON...KREBS AND BLOCKER.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

OKZ049-142200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
356 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 500 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTY:

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     PUSHMATAHA

AT 356 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 10
MILES SOUTHEAST OF NASHOBA...DRIFTING SLOWLY WEST. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...CLOUDY...NASHOBA AND
RURAL AREAS OF EASTERN PUSHMATAHA COUNTY.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL...WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT IN CASE THE ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

ARZ029-OKZ076-142245-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
445 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 545 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES:

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS
     SOUTHERN SEBASTIAN

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     EASTERN LE FLORE

AT 445 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 3 MILES
SOUTHWEST OF EXCELSIOR...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS
THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM INCLUDE...PATTERSON...POTEAU...
CAMERON...ROCK ISLAND...POCOLA...BRADEN...HARTFORD...HACKETT...
ARKOLA...HUNTINGTON...MIDLAND...DAYTON...WITCHERVILLE...JENSON...
EXCELSIOR AND BONANZA.

THIS STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH. RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE
ADVISORY IS UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

OKZ064-065-150000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
558 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TULSA HAS ISSUED A SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER ADVISORY EFFECTIVE UNTIL 700 PM CDT FOR THE FOLLOWING
COUNTIES:

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
     CREEK

IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA
     OKFUSKEE

AT 558 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHERN CREEK COUNTY BETWEEN BRISTOW AND TUSKEGEE...MOVING
SOUTHWEST AT 15 MPH. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE
STORMS
INCLUDE...OKEMAH...CASTLE...PADEN...BOLEY...MASON...OKFUSKEE...WELTY.
..BRISTOW...MILFAY...SLICK...DEPEW AND SHAMROCK.

THESE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO
50 MPH.

IN ADDITION...OUTFLOW FROM THESE STORMS WILL MOVE NORTH THROUGH
NORTHERN CREEK COUNTY AND MAY PRODUCE WINDS OF 40 MPH.

RESIDENTS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT IN CASE THE ADVISORY IS
UPGRADED TO A WARNING.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
0647 PM CDT SAT JUN 14 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0430 PM    ARPELAR                   OK   FLASH FLOOD
06/14/03   PITTSBURG                      FEW ROADS WASHED OUT AND
                                          IMPASSABLE NEAR ARPELAR.
                                          REPORTED BY THE PUBLIC.

CKH