Severe Thunderstorm Warning 192, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
140 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

UPDATED TO INCREASE THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE NORTHEAST PART OF
THE AREA.  ONGOING LINEAR MCS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST
SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST PART OF
ARKANSAS DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.  EXPECT SOME STORMS
TO BE SEVERE FROM TIME TO TIME.  ONGOING ACTIVITY AND THE POTENTIAL
FOR A LATE NIGHT MCS VALIDATE THE LIKELY POPS GOING FOR TONIGHT.
MORE SEVERE WEATHER MAY ENSUE.

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ABBAS

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-141100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
100 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER PARTS OF NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND
   THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF ARKANSAS THIS AFTERNOON...

...CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT OVER ALL OF EASTERN
   OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS...

EARLY THIS AFTERNOON A COMPLEX OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAD
MOVED SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA AND THE NORTHWEST CORNER OF
ARKANSAS FROM SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL HAVE
THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE LARGE HAIL EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE BEST
CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDESTORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE TO THE NORTH
OF A PONCA CITY TO TULSA TO FORT SMITH.   THE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
WEAKEN OR DISSIPATE AS THE AFTERNOON PROGRESSES.

HOWEVER...THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE TONIGHT AS A
VIGOROUS UPPER SYSTEM MOVES FROM THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST. A
SURFACE COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST COMBINED WITH THIS
UPPER SYSTEM WILL RESULT IN SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
ACROSS KANSAS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL LIKELY FORM A COMPLEX AS
THEY MOVE EAST SOUTHEAST ACROSS KANSAS AND INTO NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS LATE TONIGHT. STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES
COMBINED WITH AMPLE LIFT FROM THE COLD FRONT AND A FAVORABLE LOW
LEVEL JET AXIS MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE STORMS
TONIGHT. LARGE HAIL WOULD BE THE MAIN THREAT.

WARNING PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND TORNADOES CAN BE
FOUND IN THE OUTLOOK SECTION AT: WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA. GIVEN
PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR A WARNING TO BE ISSUED AT
YOUR LOCATION.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL DECREASE IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FOR
THURSDAY...BUT RETURN FOR FRIDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER SYSTEM AND COLD
FRONT APPROACH THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN OVER THE
WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...SPOTTER
ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED LATE TONIGHT ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS.

ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1142 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1111 AM    VINITA                    OK   1.00 IN HAIL
05/13/03   CRAIG                          SHERRIFFS OFFICE

PS

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1152 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1140 AM    MIAMI                     OK   1.00 IN HAIL
05/13/03   OTTAWA                         POLICE DEPT

PS

OKZ055-131730-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
1159 AM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR NORTHERN WASHINGTON
   COUNTY UNTIL 1230 PM CDT...

AT 1159 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
MOVING INTO NORTHERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AT 30 MPH. THIS STORM
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH.
THE COMMUNITIES COPAN AND DEWEY WILL BE AFFECTED BY THIS STORM
THROUGH 1230 PM CDT.

OKZ062-067-132015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
211 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ALERT IN EFFECT FOR SOUTHERN MAYES AND
   NORTHERN WAGONER COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

AT 211 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS OVER
SOUTHEAST ROGERS COUNTY MOVING INTO SOUTHERN MAYES AND NORTHERN
WAGONER COUNTIES.  THE STORMS WERE MOVING EAST-SOUTHEAST AT 40 MPH. THESE
STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING SMALL HAIL AND WIND GUSTS TO 50
MPH.

ARZ001>002-010>011-019>020-029-OKZ060>063-066>076-140100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
216 PM CDT TUE MAY 13 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
#361 UNTIL 800 PM CDT TUESDAY EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN ARKANSAS THIS WATCH INCLUDES 7 COUNTIES...
IN NORTHWEST ARKANSAS:

BENTON                CARROLL               CRAWFORD
MADISON               WASHINGTON

IN WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS:

FRANKLIN              SEBASTIAN

IN OKLAHOMA THIS WATCH INCLUDES 15 COUNTIES...
IN EAST CENTRAL OKLAHOMA:

CHEROKEE              MUSKOGEE              SEQUOYAH

IN NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

ADAIR                 DELAWARE              MAYES
OKMULGEE              ROGERS                TULSA
WAGONER

IN SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA:

HASKELL               LATIMER               LE FLORE
MCINTOSH              PITTSBURG

THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BENTONVILLE...BERRYVILLE...BROKEN
ARROW...CEDARVILLE...CLAREMORE...EUFAULA...EUREKA SPRINGS...
FAYETTEVILLE...FORT SMITH...HUNTSVILLE...JAY...MCALESTER...
MOUNTAINBURG...MUSKOGEE...NATURAL DAM...OKMULGEE...OZARK...POTEAU...
PRYOR...ROGERS...SALLISAW...SAND SPRINGS...SILOAM SPRINGS...
SPRINGDALE...STIGLER...STILWELL...TAHLEQUAH...TULSA...VAN BUREN...
WAGONER AND WILBURTON.