Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Tulsa, OK

EASTERN OKLAHOMA/NORTHWEST ARKANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OKLAHOMA
910 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

03Z SURFACE FRONT LOCATED JUST EAST OF A PONCA CITY TO ALTUS LINE
WITH ISOLATED CONVECTION ALONG THE BOUNDARY INTO THE TEXAS
PANHANDLE. SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER SE KANSAS WITH WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY EXTENDING FROM E-CENTRAL KANSAS INTO CENTRAL
MISSOURI...WITH LIMITED AREA OF CONVECTION FORMING JUST NORTH OF
THIS BOUNDARY.

APPEARS CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN OK/NW AR WILL BE
DEPENDANT ON LOW LEVEL FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE AS
00Z KSGF SOUNDING SHOWED FORMIDABLE CAPPING INVERSION.  LATEST MODEL
GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THIS SCENARIO WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY NEAR THE TULSA
AREA BY MIDNIGHT.  00Z KFWD SOUNDING CONTINUES TO INDICATE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY REMAINS PRESENT IN AIRMASS TO THE SOUTH...AND FORECAST
INSTABILITY INDICES SUGGEST THIS AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE OVER
PORTIONS OF EASTERN OK AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES THROUGH
MAINTAINING THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS.  DEEP LAYER
SHEAR ALSO CONTINUES TO IMPROVE ACROSS THE REGION FURTHER SUPPORTING
ISOLATED SEVERE POTENTIAL.  TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS IN LINE WITH
EXPECTED FRONTAL TIMING WITH LITTLE ADJUSTMENT NEEDED.

EXPECT A RAW SATURDAY WITH GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS...CLOUDY
CONDITIONS...AND STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TEMPERATURES.

UPDATE ISSUED BY 930PM.

FORECAST ID= 07

.TSA...
AR...NONE.
OK...NONE.

ARZ001-002-010-011-019-020-029-OKZ049-053>076-151200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
655 PM CST FRI FEB 14 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL ARKANSAS AS WELL AS
MUCH OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA.

.DAY ONE...THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
AREA 1...ALL OF EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST ARKANSAS

PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS...70

IF THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP...
     PROBABILITY OF SEVERE STORMS...40
     TIME OF INITIAL EVENT...1100 PM
     PROBABILITY OF A TORNADO / F2 OR GREATER TORNADO...5/1
     PROBABILITY OF GOLFBALL HAIL OR LARGER...15
     PROBABILITY OF 73 MPH WIND OR GREATER...20

GIVEN PROBABILITIES REPRESENT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN OCCURRENCE
ANYWHERE IN THE DEFINED AREA.

DISCUSSION...
EARLY THIS EVENING...SURFACE LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OVER SOUTHEAST
KANSAS WITH A COLD FRONT TRAILING BACK INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA AND
THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. A WARM FRONT STRETCHED FROM THE LOW INTO SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSOURI...WITH A DRYLINE ACROSS CENTRAL OKLAHOMA INTO WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE ATMOSPHERE ACROSS EASTERN OKLAHOMA AND WESTERN ARKANSAS REMAINS
UNSTABLE...WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 70S AND DEWPOINTS
GENERALLY AROUND 60 DEGREES. HOWEVER...A SIGNIFICANT CAP IS IN PLACE
WHICH HAS INHIBITED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SO FAR.

THE BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE BY LATE
EVENING OVER NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AS LIFT IS PROVIDED BY THE
APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT COOL.  A LINE OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAY EVENTUALLY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT...MOVING INTO
WESTERN ARKANSAS AFTER MIDNIGHT.

GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MOISTURE...INSTABILITY AND FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR
PROFILES...SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE. THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE
STRAIGHT-LINE WINDS UP TO 70 MPH AND 1 TO 1.5 INCH HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED. SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW MAY LINGER
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT DRY WEATHER
IS THEN EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER / EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT ACTION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED AFTER 10 PM.

RELATED GRAPHICAL INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND AT...
WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TULSA