Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Tampa Bay, FL

WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
125 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

NOTHING TOO OUT OF THE ORDINARY SENSIBLE WX WISE FOR THE NEXT WEEK
OR SO...AS TEMPS/RH RUN NEAR CLIMO WITH MAINLY AFTN/EVE CONVECTION
EACH DAY.  THE LARGE SCALE PICTURE SHOWS THAT EASTERN U.S. TROUGH...
THOUGH MUCH WEAKER THAN EARLIER THIS MONTH...REMAINS STUBBORN AND IS
HOLDING OFF ANY FULL-BLOWN BERMUDA HIGH DEVELOPMENT.

MODELS ARE IN GENERALLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE SHORT TERM.
JUST A SLIGHT DIFFERENCE IN EVOLUTION OF LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS...WITH
THE ETA RIGHT ON TOP OF THE PENINSULA AND THE GFS JUST A SMIDGE N.
WILL LEAN SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE GFS OWING TO PERSISTENCE.

SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SAT):
THIS EVENING CONTINUES TO LOOK ACTIVE IN AREAL COVERAGE AND
LIGHTNING INTENSITY...AND WILL PROBABLY CARRY A REMAINDER OF AFTN/EVE
PERIOD IN THE TEXT TO COVER THIS.  FOR FRI...SE FLOW SHOULD BE JUST
ENOUGH TO FAVOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES...BUT COVERAGE LOOKS A TAD LESS
AS SOME NE FLOW (RATHER THAN SE) TRIES TO SET UP WELL OFF THE SFC
BRINGING SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR.  FOR SAT...WCSB SHOULD PENETRATE WELL
INLAND WHICH SHOULD CUT OFF ANY COASTAL PCPN EARLY IN THE AFTN AND
FAVOR THE INTERIOR.  GRIDS HAVE BEEN ADJUST TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
SHIFT.

EXTENDED (SAT NIGHT - THU):
WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WILL MOVE OFFSHORE
TUE WITH NEARLY ZONAL INTO THE END OF THE PERIOD...WITH A FEW SHORT
WAVE TROUGHS MOVING OVER THE SOUTHERN STATES. HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
ATLANTIC WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE WEST OVER THE STATE...PROVIDING A
WEAK GRADIENT THAT WILL ALLOW AFTERNOON SEA BREEZE BOUNDARIES TO
FORM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE A FOCUS OF
SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING TSTMS OVER LAND. GULF WATERS MAY
EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED ACTIVITY ABOUT ANY TIME.

MARINE:  WINDS GENERALLY 10 KT OR LESS WITH SLIGHT SEAS...OUTSIDE OF
CONVECTION OF COURSE...THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FIRE WX:  NO PROBLEMS WITH LIGHT WINDS...RH AT 50 PERCENT OF MORE...
AND SEASONAL MIXING HEIGHTS.

PRELIM NUMBERS:
TPA 076/091 076/091 3533
FMY 074/093 074/092 3533
GIF 074/092 074/092 2524
SRQ 074/090 074/090 4423
BKV 070/092 070/092 3534

.TBW...NONE.

BSG/RKR

FLZ039-042-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-122115-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
1130 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT:

...NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES BY LATE
AFTERNOON...

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
INTERIOR WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA THROUGH 3 PM.  THESE STORMS WILL
CONTAIN OCCASIONAL CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND A BRIEF DOWNPOUR.

BETWEEN 3 AND 6 PM...BOUNDARIES FROM THESE STORMS AND PREVAILING
SOUTHEAST FLOW JUST OFF THE SURFACE WILL COLLIDE WITH THE GULF COAST
SEA BREEZE...MOST LIKELY AROUND 20 MILES INLAND FROM THE COAST.
THIS COLLISION WILL INDUCE NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY ALONG
ONE OR MORE LINES.  BETWEEN 6 PM AND SUNSET...THESE LINES OF STORMS
WILL TEND TO PUSH WEST INTO THE NEARSHORE GULF WATERS.

RESIDENTS...ESPECIALLY EARLY EVENING COMMUTERS...ACROSS URBAN
METROPOLITAN AREAS CAN EXPECT FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AS
WELL AS LOCALLY TORRENTIAL RAINS.  STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND
GUSTS OF 40 MPH OR MORE...AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE LATER THIS EVENING...AND SKIES WILL CLEAR BY
MIDNIGHT IN MOST AREAS.

REMEMBER...WHEN SKIES DARKEN...MOVE INDOORS. IF THERE IS
TIME...UNPLUG APPLIANCES AND ELECTRICAL EQUIPMENT. WAIT UNTIL THE
STORM ENDS BEFORE USING THE TELEPHONE OR RUNNING WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
UNDER NORMAL SUMMER CONDITIONS.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

LOCAL SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION, CHECK OUR WEB SITE AT
HTTP://WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TBW

BSG

FLZ055-121845-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
222 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

...TORRENTIAL RAINS ALONG I 75 IN MANATEE COUNTY...
A THUNDERSTORM...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH...WILL AFFECT
ELLENTON...EAST SECTIONS OF BRADENTON AND PARRISH...UNTIL 245 PM
EDT. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS EXPECTED. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.  MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY
TRAVEL.

GOLDSMITH

FLZ055-121930-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
255 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

...TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUING ALONG I 75 IN MANATEE COUNTY...
A SMALL LINE OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS...MOVING NORTH AT 15 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE AFFECTING ELLENTON...EAST SECTIONS OF BRADENTON AND
PARRISH...UNTIL 330 PM EDT. TORRENTIAL RAINS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITY
TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES...AND CAUSE MINOR FLOODING OF POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS.  FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL CONTINUE. IF CAUGHT
OUTSIDE...CROUCH DOWN IN A LOW SPOT...AWAY FROM TALL OBJECTS. THIS
STORM WILL PRODUCE PEA SIZE HAIL.
&&
MOTORISTS MAY WANT TO DELAY TRAVEL ALONG I 75 UNTIL THE RAIN LETS UP.

GOLDSMITH