Severe Thunderstorm Warning 3, NWS Tallahassee, FL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
340 AM EST SAT MAR 01 2003

THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST GULF. A FEW STORMS HAVE ALREADY MOVED INLAND ALONG THE
FLORIDA PANHANDLE. MSAS AT 07Z PLACES THE WARM FRONT OVER CENTRAL
FLORIDA AND EXTENDING INTO THE GULF JUST SOUTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS
WITH A WEAK LOW PRESSURE CENTER SOUTHEAST OF NEW ORLEANS.

MODELS/ZFP: WARM FRONT WILL PULL TO THE NORTH TODAY AS THE WEAK LOW
IN THE GULF LIFTS RAPIDLY TO THE NORTHEAST. BASED ON LATEST RADAR
TRENDS AND MOS...WILL GO WITH CATEGORICAL POPS ALL ZONES TODAY. THE
AVN AND NGM SHOWS THE SURFACE LOW OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA BY 12Z
SUNDAY WITH TH ETA POSITION EAST OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. ALL
MODELS AT 12Z SUN SHOW THE SOUTHWEST TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS MY
EASTERN CWA. THIS IS A BIT FASTER THAN PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS AND IT
APPEARS THAT WE WILL BE ABLE TO TRIM POPS BACK FOR SUNDAY. A FEW
SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER OUR EASTERNMOST ZONES SUNDAY EVENING UNTIL
THE SECONDARY FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND CLEARS THEN OUT.
OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO INHERITED FORECAST. WILL STAY CLOSE
TO MAV TEMPS.

MARINE: WINDS WILL VEER TO THE SOUTH TODAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTH. CURRENTLY WINDS ARE BORDERLINE SCEC CRITERIA AND MAY HAVE
HEADLINE ZONES IF THIS CONTINUES ON THE NEXT OB. OTHERWISE...
SOUTHWEST WINDS SHOULD INCREASE TO SCEC TONIGHT AND THEN DECREASE
SLIGHTLY AS THEY VEER TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT SUNDAY.
WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN BEHIND SECONDARY FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY BUT WILL HOLD BELOW SCEC LEVELS FOR NOW.

FIRE WX: NO CONCERNS.

PRELIM NUMBERS...
TLH  068/058 071/044 9521
PFN  066/057 067/046 9521
DHN  062/053 065/042 9521
ABY  061/054 067/042 9521
VLD  067/059 070/045 9631
CTY  072/063 074/049 9642

.TLH...
AL...NONE.
GA...NONE.
FL...NONE.

BARRY

ALZ065>069-FLZ007>019-026>029-034-GAZ120>131-142>148-155>161-021100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
600 AM EST SAT MAR 1 2003

THIS OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL
GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND EASTERN PANHANDLE...AND THE
ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION TODAY ACCOMPANIED
WITH NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH NO ORGANIZED
SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED...SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BRIEFLY APPROACH
SEVERE LIMITS. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE DAMAGING
WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...
A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH EARLY SUNDAY WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING ON WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUING INTO FRIDAY.
NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED...AND SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT
BE REQUIRED.

FOR ADDITIONAL WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TALLAHASSEE VIA OUR WEB SITE AT WWW.SRH.NOAA.GOV/TLH/ OR
LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...LOCAL TELEVISION OR RADIO STATIONS.

22-BARRY