Alert archive / Texas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 252

March 15, 20038 counties in Texas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Mar 15, 2003, 11:38 AM CST for 8 counties in Texas. It was in force for 2 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Mar 15, 2003, 11:38 AM CST (17:38 UTC)
Expired
Mar 15, 2003, 1:45 PM CST
In force
2 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Brooks County, TX, Cameron County, TX, Hidalgo County, TX, Jim Hogg County, TX, Kenedy County, TX, Starr County, TX, Willacy County, TX, Zapata County, TX

The radar

The Brownsville radar (KBRO), 91 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 17:38 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Brownsville Intl, TX (KBRO), launched 12:00Z, 5.6 hours before the alert went out and 94 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Brownsville Intl, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-03-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 1262 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Brownsville Intl, TX at 12:00Z on 2003-03-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 24 square meters per square second.193958Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
1262 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-31 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
583 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
40 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
24 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
127 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.1
Supercell composite
0.6

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

025 
ACUS11 KWNS 151738
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 151738 
TXZ000-151945-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0252
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1138 AM CST SAT MAR 15 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...DEEP S TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL 

VALID 151738Z - 151945Z

MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL EXIST ACROSS DEEP S TX FOR THE NEXT FEW
HOURS.	WW NOT ANTICIPATED.



LATEST BRO RADAR SHOWS TSTMS INTENSIFYING AS THEY MOVE NEWD OUT
OF MEXICO.  CURRENTLY...THE STRONGEST STORM IS LOCATED OVER
CAMERON COUNTY MOVING 220-230/10 KTS.  RUC FORECAST SOUNDINGS
INDICATE A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WITH MLCAPES APPROACHING
2000 J/KG. LOCAL VWP DATA DEPICT UNIDIRECTIONAL SLY FLOW THROUGH
THE LOWEST 3 KM WITH RELATIVELY WEAK MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
--IE 20-30 KTS ABOVE 4 KM. THE RATHER STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
--7.5-8 C/KM-- IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT
OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  HOWEVER...THE
WEAK WIND FIELDS AND INCREASING AREAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SUGGEST
THAT THREAT WILL EVOLVE INTO MORE OF A HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT. 
THUS...A WW IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

..MEAD.. 03/15/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

ATTN...WFO...CRP...BRO...

27099942 27449878 27379803 27259752 26979700 26309679
25789682 25489714 25489778 25589837 25909896 26229934

SPC that day

Everything else SPC issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Mar 15, 1:07 PM CSTMesoscale DiscussionSPCBorden, Brown, Callahan, Coke, Coleman, Comanche and 19 more113 min

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Texas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.