Alert archive / Arkansas / Mesoscale Discussions in 2003

Mesoscale Discussion 13

January 2, 20038 counties in Arkansas

The Storm Prediction Center issued this mesoscale discussion at Jan 2, 2003, 3:16 AM CST for 8 counties in Arkansas. It was in force for 4 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Jan 2, 2003, 3:16 AM CST (09:16 UTC)
Expired
Jan 2, 2003, 7:15 AM CST
In force
4 hr
Issued by
the Storm Prediction Center

Counties Cleburne County, AR, Craighead County, AR, Independence County, AR, Jackson County, AR, Lawrence County, AR, Searcy County, AR, Stone County, AR, Van Buren County, AR

The radar

The Little Rock radar (KLZK), 118 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 09:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Little Rock, AR (KLZK), launched 00:00Z, 9.3 hours before the alert went out and 198 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2003-01-02Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Little Rock, AR at 00:00Z on 2003-01-02The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 28 square meters per square second.1939587897Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
576 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
57 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
101 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

780 
ACUS11 KWNS 020917
SWOMCD
SPC MCD 020916 
ARZ000-021315-

MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0013
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0316 AM CST THU JAN 02 2003

AREAS AFFECTED...N CNTRL/NE AR

CONCERNING...HEAVY SNOW

VALID 020916Z - 021315Z

LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW APPEARS LIKELY TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
NORTHERN ARKANSAS BY DAYBREAK...CONTINUING INTO THE MID MORNING
HOURS.


COOLING CLOUD TOPS IN LAST FEW SATELLITE IMAGES AND RECENT RADAR
TRENDS SUPPORT MODEL PROGS...WHICH ALL SUGGEST STRENGTHENING
MID/UPPER FORCING NEAR CYCLONIC VORTICITY CENTER OVER NORTHWEST
ARKANSAS.  AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES EAST NORTHEASTWARD ON
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF CLOSED LOW... WHICH IS PROGGED
TO MIGRATE FROM THE OZARKS INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI BY MID
MORNING...CONCENTRATED STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD WILL
SHIFT ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST ARKANSAS BY 15Z.
DYNAMIC COOLING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO CHANGEOVER TO SNOW SHORTLY IN
THE VICINITY OF THE BOSTON MOUNTAINS...WHERE OROGRAPHY MAY
ENHANCE SNOW TOTALS...BEFORE HEAVY SNOW DEVELOPS EASTWARD IN A
NARROW SWATH ACROSS THE BATESVILLE/JONESBORO AREAS.
MOISTURE/LIFT APPEAR SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT AVERAGE SNOW RATES UP
TO 1 INCH PER HOUR.

..KERR.. 01/02/2003

...PLEASE SEE WWW.SPC.NOAA.GOV FOR GRAPHIC PRODUCT...

35799299 35979282 35999166 36119089 36019009 35679033
35529129 35489282

Nearby

Mesoscale Discussions in Arkansas, 2003Every mesoscale discussion in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.