Tornado Warning 45, NWS San Angelo, TX

WEST CENTRAL TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
300 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

CHANCES ARE LOOKING BETTER THIS AFTERNOON FOR PRECIP AS CONVECTIVE
INHIBITION DECREASES AND DRY LINE MIXES EAST AND INTERACTS WITH OLD
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY ACROSS THE NORTHERN CWA. LATEST SURFACE OBS HAS DRY
LINE EXTENDING FROM EAST OF FORT STOCKTON TO THE CENTRAL PANHANDLE
WITH STORMS ALREADY KICKING UP WEST OF CROCKETT COUNTY...ALTHOUGH
INTENSITY OF STORMS HAVE DECREASED THE LAST SEVERAL SCANS. ACTIVITY
THAT DOES DEVELOP LATER SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED BUT COULD EASILY
REACH SEVERE CRITERIA WITH LARGE HAIL AND HIGH WINDS. CHANCE OF
STORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING AS DRY LINE CONTINUES TO EDGE
EAST POSSIBLY AS FAR AS THE WESTERN CWA. THIS EVENING SHOULD ALSO
SEE AN INCREASE IN LLJ ACTIVITY WITH A SHORTWAVE TROF ADVERTISED BY
THE LATEST MESO ETA CROSSING THE CWA EMBEDDED IN WEST WINDS ALOFT.

PERIODIC IMPULSES EMBEDDED IN THE WEST FLOW ALOFT AND AN ACTIVE
DRYLINE WILL KEEP A CHANCE OF PRECIP IN THE FORECAST INTO THE
WEEKEND. AS THE WEAK UPPER RIDGE OVER TEXAS CONTINUES TO BREAK
DOWN... AVN BRINGS A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY WITH GOOD CHANCE OF ACCOMPANYING PRECIP AND A RETURN TO A
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AS UPPER TROUGH AXIS DEVELOPS FROM EASTERN
TEXAS TO THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. GIVEN A
SERIES OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSAGES EMBEDDED THIS NORTHWEST FLOW
THROUGH THE EXTENDED....CHANCE OF PRECIP WILL CONTINUE. MRF BEGINS
TO BUILD AN UPPER RIDGE OVER SOUTHERN ROCKIES BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK WHICH SHOULD SHUNT PRECIP TO OUR EAST.

ABI 071/094/071/095 3232
SJT 071/095/072/095 3222
JCT 072/094/074/094 3222

.SJT...NONE.

15

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-114-127-128-139-140-
154-155-168>170-111915-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
219 PM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...

A NIGHT TIME THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
SOUTHEAST...MAINLY THROUGH THE BIG COUNTRY. HOWEVER THIS COMPLEX MAY
AFFECT AREAS FURTHER SOUTH...INCLUDING THE CONCHO VALLEY AND THE
HEARTLAND. DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HEAVY RAINS WILL
BE THE GREATEST CONCERNS WITH THESE STORMS WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED
HAIL THREAT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NIGHT TIME STORM COMPLEXES WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS
AT LEAST PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL TEXAS DURING THE EVENING...THROUGH
THE REST OF THE WEEK..

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED ACROSS THE BIG COUNTRY THIS EVENING.

27/BRAZZELL