Severe Thunderstorm Warning 89, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
255 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

NEARLY STACKED LOW PRESSURE WAS MAKING ITS WAY INTO SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON. A DRY LINE CURVED INTO SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AND
WAS LOCATED JUST WEST OF SPRINGFIELD...AND HAD SLOWED ITS EASTWARD
PROGRESSION DRAMATICALLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  ISOLATED CONVECTION
HAD DEVELOPED JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI BUT DISSIPATED AS IT MOVED EAST INTO A MORE STABLE
AIRMASS.  TEMPERATURES REMAIN IN THE 50S UNDER THE CLOUDS AND AREAS
OF FOG ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI BUT HAD CLIMBED INTO THE MID
70S AT JOPLIN.

CLEARING HAD TAKEN PLACE JUST AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE WHERE THERE WAS
A NARROW AXIS OF INCREASING INSTABILITY.  MODIFIED 18Z SOUNDING AT
SPRINGFIELD YIELDS CAPES AROUND 2100 J/KG.  LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE BOUNDARY...AN APPROACHING VORTICITY LOBE AS DEPICTED BY
WATER VAPOR...AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL LIKELY INITIATE
CONVECTION ALONG THE DRY LINE BY 5 PM.  FAVORABLE WIND SHEAR AND 0-3
KM HELICITIES NEAR 400 SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  IT STILL APPEARS THAT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THE EARLY EVENING WITH POTENTIAL OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AN ISOLATED TORNADO NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. ACTIVITY THAT DEVELOPS
WILL LIKELY DECREASE IN INTENSITY AFTER SUNSET AND PUSHES EAST INTO
MORE STABLE AIR.

THE UPPER LOW WILL MAKES ITS WAY INTO WESTERN MISSOURI TONIGHT. DEEP
CYCLONIC FLOW AND UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL WILL BRING SHOWERS BACK INTO
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO FRIDAY AS THE LOW
TRACKS ACROSS SOUTHERN MISSOURI.  THIS WILL ALSO RESULT IN A RATHER
COOL DAY.

SUNSHINE AND WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN SATURDAY AS THE UPPER
LOW MOVES EAST OF THE AREA.  A SHORTWAVE WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE U.S. LATE IN THE WEEKEND AND CAUSE A FRONT TO
SAG SOUTHEAST INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL
MEANDER ACROSS THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE MEAN UPPER TROUGH
POSITION SETS UP ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S.  THIS WILL SET UP A
UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WITH THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.

FORECAST GRIDS HAVE BEEN SENT.

.SGF...
MO...NONE.
KS...NONE.

FOSTER

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-251100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
325 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LARGE HAIL UP
  TO THE SIZE OF GOLF BALLS...DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH...
  AND POSSIBLY A FEW TORNADOES.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL RAPIDLY DEVELOP ACROSS WEST CENTRAL
  AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI BETWEEN 4 AND 7 PM.  THESE STORMS WILL
  SPREAD EAST ACROSS THE MISSOURI OZARKS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
  AND EVENING. THE PRIMARY RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE EAST OF
  A LINE FROM NEVADA...TO SPRINGFIELD...TO BRANSON.  THE POTENTIAL
  OF SEVERE STORMS WILL PERSIST INTO THE EVENING HOURS ACROSS
  CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

  DISCUSSION:

  STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS DURING THE
  AFTERNOON WHILE A DRY LINE PUSHES SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHWEST
  MISSOURI.  AN AXIS OF INCREASING INSTABILITY IN AN AREA OF CLEARING
  AHEAD OF THE DRY LINE WILL SUPPORT RAPID THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
  LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  STRONG WIND SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELL
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  THE PRIMARY
  RISK OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BE ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OVER
  WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI. THE STORM SYSTEM WILL MOVE
  THROUGH THE SOUTHERN MISSOURI OZARKS THIS EVENING.  THE SEVERE
  STORM THREAT WILL LIKELY DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...AND AS ACTIVITY
  MOVES INTO MORE STABLE AIR ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

  NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A NEVADA TO SPRINGFIELD LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

FOSTER

MOZ082-090>092-095>098-103>106-250500-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
700 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 160
UNTIL 1200 AM CDT FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS:

IN MISSOURI:

CHRISTIAN             DOUGLAS               GREENE
OZARK                 STONE                 TANEY
WEBSTER               WRIGHT                HOWELL
OREGON                SHANNON               TEXAS

SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE WATCH:

BRANSON...SPRINGFIELD AND WEST PLAINS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER LOCAL MEDIA FOR FURTHER
DETAILS OR UPDATES.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

JLT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
705 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0659 PM    HARTVILLE                 MO   .75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   WRIGHT                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0659 PM    QUINCY                    MO   1 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   HICKORY                        REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
711 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0710 PM    MOUNTAIN GROVE            MO   .75 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   WRIGHT                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

0710 PM    MOUNTAIN GROVE            MO   65 MPH TSTM GUST
04/24/03   WRIGHT                         TREES AND LARGE TREE
                                          LIMBS DOWN.,REPORTED BY
                                          LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
733 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0729 PM    6 E EDWARDS               MO   1 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   BENTON                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
737 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0735 PM    KNOBBY                    MO   1 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   BENTON                         REPORTED BY PUBLIC.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
802 PM CDT THU APR 24 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0800 PM    STOVER                    MO   1 INCH HAIL
04/24/03   MORGAN                         ALSO ESTIMATED 60 MPH
                                          WINDS. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.