Severe Thunderstorm Warning 63, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
215 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

FORECAST CONCERNS: CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. SEVERE WEATHER WEDNESDAY.

FIRE WEATHER POTENTIAL INCREASING THIS AFTERNOON AS RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FIELDS DROPPED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL AND EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI
INTO THE UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S PRIOR TO 1 PM. OUT WEST DEW
POINTS WERE STILL IN THE 40S WITH 50S IN FAR WESTERN MISSOURI WHICH
TRANSLATES TO 30-40% NEAR THE SURFACE. ALTHOUGH WIND SPEEDS ARE MUCH
HIGHER IN WESTERN MISSOURI/EASTERN KANSAS WHICH MEANS THE CONTINUING
THREAT OF WILD FIRES THIS AFTERNOON.

IT SEEMS THE MODELS ARE FINALLY CONSISTENT WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE
SURFACE AND UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE PLAINS AND INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY BY THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH RAINFALL PERCENTAGES HAVE INCREASE
DURING THE LAST FEW RUNS...DONT BELIEVE ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL AFFECT
CURRENT FORECAST TRENDS EXCEPT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON (EVEN IN THE RICH
MOISTURE OVER OKLAHOMA AND KANSAS...ONLY SPRINKLES ATTM). IT WILL
TAKE TIME FOR THE DRY ATMOSPHERE TO SATURATE OVERNIGHT...SO WILL
TREND FOR LATER DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA
UNTIL AFTER 10 PM...WITH A PROGRESSION TO THE EAST OVERNIGHT. WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI TOWARD WEDNESDAY
MORNING. WILL ALSO DOWNPLAY THE SEVERE CONVECTION OVERNIGHT AS MOST
OF THE ENERGY AND DEEPER MOISTURE REMAINS WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

WEDNESDAY SEEMS MORE INTERESTING AS PER RAINFALL CHANCES AND SEVERE
WEATHER THREAT. SURFACE LOW WILL SLOWLY MOVE EAST AND FILL OVER
CENTRAL MISSOURI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. SURFACE FRONT AND
ASSOCIATED WEAK DRY LINE...WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OZARKS WEDNESDAY
WITH CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS INDICATING INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH
NOTABLE SHEAR PROFILERS IN CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL MISSOURI DURING
THE AFTERNOON. BOTH THE ETA/GFS SHOWING QUITE A BIT OF QPF ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY EVENING. HOWEVER MORE CLOUD COVER ON
WEDNESDAY MAY LIMIT THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. HWO ALREADY
HIGHLIGHTS CONDITIONS FOR TOMORROW CONVECTIVE PARAMETERS.
ANYWAY...IT DOES SEEM TO BE A MUCH BETTER CHANCE OF RAINFALL AS
DEEPER MOISTURE RESIDES. WILL FOLLOW THE ETA QPF FIELDS FOR
WEDNESDAY. MAY ALSO EXTEND CHANCES OF RAINFALL INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING (EASTERN/NORTHEASTERN 1/2 OF FORECAST AREA) WITH THE SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF SURFACE LOW.

EXTENDED: LATEST 12Z GFS (COMPARED TO 00Z) IS MUCH DEEPER WITH THE
DISTURBANCE OVER THE WEEKEND WHICH WILL LIKELY SLOW THE SYSTEM THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT. HAVE ALREADY MOVED THE CHANCES OF RAINFALL INTO
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT LATER SHIFT MAY NEED TO EXTEND IT INTO MONDAY
MORNING IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY SEEMS TO BE DRY
AS A LARGE RIDGE MOVES INTO THE AREA.

.SGF...
MO...RED FLAG WARNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WIND ADVISORY FOR AREAS
NORTHWEST OF A PINEVILLE...SPRINGFIELD AND OSAGE BEACH LINE THROUGH
5 PM.
KS...WIND ADVISORY THROUGH EARLY EVENING.

JLT

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-161100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
100 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  FIRE DANGER.
  STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  FIRE DANGER FOR ALL OF THE OZARKS THIS AFTERNOON.
  STRONG WINDS OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH FOR AREAS
  NORTHWEST OF A LINE FROM PINEVILLE TO SPRINGFIELD AND OSAGE BEACH
  MISSOURI THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

  DISCUSSION:

  A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS WILL INTENSIFY
  FURTHER ACROSS THE PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON. SOUTH WINDS OF 25 TO 35
  MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
  ONE-THIRD OF THE MISSOURI OZARKS TODAY.  THIS WILL COMBINE WITH
  LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOW FUEL STICK MOISTURES TO PRODUCE
  A HIGH FIRE DANGER OVER THE ENTIRE MISSOURI OZARKS REGION THIS
  AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
  PROVIDING THE CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH ALL THE REGION
  HAS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY...HIGHER INSTABILITIES AND
  WIND SHEAR WILL ENHANCE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTH CENTRAL
  AND CENTRAL MISSOURI...OR MAINLY AREAS EAST OF A LINE FROM
  CAMDENTON TO AVA MISSOURI WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. CONVECTIVE
  PARAMETERS INDICATED A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN THESE
  AREAS. ALSO DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL
  LOW...ROTATING STORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE MAIN THREAT AT THIS
  TIME LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. FURTHER INFORMATION IS NEEDED
  TO DETERMINE IF TORNADIC SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS AREA OF
  CONCERN. THEREFORE SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CONTINUE
  TO MONITOR FUTURE UPDATES ON THE POTENTIAL OF SEVERE WEATHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED THROUGH TONIGHT.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

JLT

KSZ073-097-101-161000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1129 PM CDT TUE APR 15 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 125...IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CDT WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN KANSAS:

BOURBON...CHEROKEE AND CRAWFORD.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE FORT SCOTT AND
PITTSBURG.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...COMMERCIAL MEDIA OR YOUR CABLE
TELEVISION PROVIDER FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION.

DSA

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.