Severe Thunderstorm Warning 271, NWS Springfield, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
301 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

PRIMARY FORECAST CHALLENGE IS TIMING OF CONVECTION OVER THE SHORT
TERM.

BAMEX FINALLY IN BUSINESS AS IMPRESSIVE MCS AND ASSOCIATED BOW ECHO
WITH OVER 3000 CGS/15 MINUTES NOW PEELING OVER THE TOP OF MID LEVEL
RIDGE AND BEGINNING TO HEAD SSE TOWARDS CWA. 40 TO 50 KNOT 850 MB
JET FEEDING INTO THIS SYSTEM AT A SOMEWHAT OBLIQUE ANGLE...BUT AS
COMPLEX MAKES THE TURN AROUND THE RIDGE THE CONVERGENCE SHOULD ONLY
INCREASE EARLY THIS MORNING...SO EXPECT LITTLE OR NO WEAKENING
THROUGH DAWN. MESOETA 850 MB BASED CAPE NEAR 900 MB AT OR JUST BELOW
1000 J/KG...SO THINK ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS THERE TO KEEP THIS THING
GOING WELL INTO CWA.

BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH CLEARING WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE WAKE OF THIS SYSTEM. BEING NEAR THE SOLSTICE...DAYS ARE
CERTAINLY LONG ENOUGH TO HAVE SEVERAL HOURS OF POTENTIAL
DESTABILIZATION LATE THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS VERY
IMPRESSIVE SHORTWAVE OVER NEW MEXICO IS HEADED THIS WAY...AND
ESTIMATE OF SPEED BRINGS LEADING EDGE OF UVV WITH THIS FEATURE INTO
SW MO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY REFIRE THEN...BUT AGREE WITH SPC THAT SEVERE THREAT IS ONLY
IN SLIGHT CATEGORY. WIND FIELDS ARE NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND
RELATIVELY WEAK. DEPENDING ON AMOUNT OF CAPE...A FEW BIG HAILERS ARE
POSSIBLE. MORE LIKELY THREAT THOUGH WILL BE FLOODING. WOULD LIKE TO
HOLD OFF ON FLOOD WATCH UNTIL RAIN TOTALS FOR THIS FIRST BATCH THIS
MORNING ARE KNOWN. DAY SHIFT WILL HAVE ENOUGH TIME TO ISSUE A FLOOD
WATCH AROUND MIDDAY IF NEEDED.

LATER PERIODS WERE UNTOUCHED AS PATTERN REMAINS VERY UNSETTLED.
SURFACE BOUNDARY LANGUISHES IN AREA AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE
THROUGH. AVN PRECIP H2O IN THE 1.5 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE ALL THE WAY
INTO MONDAY. RIVER/FLASH FLOODING MAY BECOME A SERIOUS PROBLEM IF
MULTIPLE MCSS OCCUR.

.SGF...
.MO...NONE
.KS...NONE

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KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-101800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
323 AM CDT TUE JUN 10 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL
  HEAVY RAIN OF ONE TO TWO INCHES

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  EAST OF A NEVADA TO CASSVILLE LINE THIS MORNING...AREA WIDE LATE
  THIS AFTERNOON

  DISCUSSION:

  A COMPLEX OF STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM NORTHWEST TO
  SOUTHEAST ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING. IN THE WAKE OF
  THIS CLUSTER OF STORMS...PARTIAL CLEARING MAY OCCUR THIS
  AFTERNOON...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE. A
  STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER NEW MEXICO EARLY THIS MORNING
  WILL APPROACH THE REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...AND LIKELY TRIGGER
  STRONG TO POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. WIND FIELDS ARE NOT
  CONDUCIVE TO TORNADIC THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER LARGE HAIL WILL BE
  POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION...VERY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE WHICH COULD
  PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY PERSIST WELL INTO
  TUESDAY NIGHT...AND THE THREAT OF LOCALIZED FLOODING WILL
  CONTINUE. THE UNSETTLED PATTERN SHOULD LAST THROUGH THE
  WEEKEND...WHEN MORE PERIODIC THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAIN
  WILL BE POSSIBLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED AFTER 400 PM THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

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