Alert archive / Missouri / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 38, NWS Springfield, MO

July 18, 2003Miller County, Morgan County, Missouri

NWS Springfield, MO issued this flash flood warning at Jul 18, 2003, 8:52 PM CDT for Miller County, Morgan County, Missouri. It was in force for 4 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Jul 18, 2003, 8:52 PM CDT (01:52 UTC)
Expired: Jul 19, 2003, 1:00 AM CDT
In force: 4 hr
Issued by: NWS Springfield, MO
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Miller County, MO, Morgan County, MO

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Springfield, MO (KSGF), launched 00:00Z, 1.9 hours before the alert went out and 189 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 2598 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: -57 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL: 1646 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 42 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 106 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 168 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.5
Supercell composite: 13.9

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS53 KSGF 190154
FFWSGF
MOC131-141-190600-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
852 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SPRINGFIELD HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  MILLER COUNTY IN MISSOURI
  MORGAN COUNTY IN MISSOURI

* UNTIL 100 AM CDT

* AT 847 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
  THUNDERSTORMS WITH VERY HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.   
  DOPPLER RADAR ESTIMATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS
  NORTHERN MORGAN COUNTY.  

* SLOW MOVING THUNDERSTORMS ARE PRODUCING TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IN THE
  WARNED AREA. RUNOFF FROM THIS EXCESSIVE RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLASH
  FLOODING TO OCCUR. SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING
  INCLUDE...VERSAILLES...STOVER...ST. ELIZABETH...LAKELAND...LAKE
  OZARK...IBERIA AND ELDON.

ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO TWO INCHES ARE POSSIBLE IN
THE WARNED AREA.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3842 9243 3833 9241 3833 9219 3802 9219
          3804 9247 3816 9260 3823 9271 3822 9289
          3829 9308 3867 9308 3864 9295 3847 9276

$$

LINDENBERG

3 follow-up statements

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 190238
FFSSGF
MOC131-141-190600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
937 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR MILLER AND
MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 932 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED
FLOODING OCCURRING IN THE TOWN OF VERSAILLES.  

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCED BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES
OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE WARNED AREA.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS
OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE BEFORE THE RAIN ENDS...AND
WILL LIKELY PRODUCE ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3842 9243 3833 9241 3833 9219 3802 9219
          3804 9247 3816 9260 3823 9271 3822 9289
          3829 9308 3867 9308 3864 9295 3847 9276

$$

LINDENBERG

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 190401
FFSSGF
MOC131-141-190600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1101 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 100 AM CDT FOR MILLER AND
MORGAN COUNTIES...

AT 1052 PM CDT...LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT OFFICIALS REPORTED
FLOODING IN THE TOWN OF ELDON.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE
TO REGENERATE OVER PORTIONS OF MORGAN AND MILLER COUNTIES.
STORMS TONIGHT HAVE PRODUCED WIDESPREAD AREAS OF OVER THREE
INCHES OF RAINFALL.  ADDITIONAL RAINFALL OF ONE TO TWO INCHES
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ADDING TO THE 
FLOODING THREAT.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED QUICKLY.
MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

LAT...LON 3842 9243 3833 9241 3833 9219 3802 9219
          3804 9247 3816 9260 3823 9271 3822 9289
          3829 9308 3867 9308 3864 9295 3847 9276

$$

LINDENBERG

000 
WGUS73 KSGF 190556
FFSSGF
MOC141-190600-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
1255 AM CDT SAT JUL 19 2003

...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING THAT WAS IN EFFECT FOR MORGAN COUNTY WILL
BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 1 AM...

EXCESS RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAIN HAS ENDED OVER THE WARNED AREA. STREAMS
AND CREEKS IN THE WARNED AREA HAVE RECEDED OR WERE BEGINNING TO
RECEDE...ENDING THE FLOOD THREAT. IF FLOODING HAS BEEN OBSERVED...
PLEASE REPORT IT TO YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY.

LAT...LON 3837 9268 3823 9271 3823 9291 3829 9308
          3867 9308 3864 9295 3850 9274

$$

LINDENBERG

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Springfield, MO wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Jul 18, 7:14 PM CDT, 1 hour 38 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Jul 18, 7:14 PM CDT, 1 hour 38 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
714 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

...MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE DISCUSSION...

.DISCUSSION...

SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDINESS AND POOLING MOISTURE ALONG THE
OUTFLOW/SYNOPTIC BOUNDARY HAS BROUGHT THE ATMOSPHERE TO A BOIL
ACROSS OUR CWA (BOTH FIGURATIVELY AND LITERALLY). QUICK LOOK AT 0Z
SGF SOUNDING STILL SHOWS THE PRESENCE OF A VERY FORMIDABLE CAP
CENTERED AROUND 850MB WITH MLCINH OF NEARLY 200 J/KG. SURFACE
ANALYSIS AND SPC MESO ANALYSIS DATA SHOW A PERSISTENT AND STRONG
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE STRETCHING FROM UNO TO OSCEOLA TO MCI
AREA. THUS FAR THE STRONG CAP HAS HELD BACK SURFACES PARCELS FROM
TAPPING INTO THE 3000+ J/KG OF MLCAPE...BUT EVIDENCE OF THE CAP
WEAKENING IS APPEARING OUT THE WINDOW IN THE FORM OF A TALL AND
SKINNY CB WITH AN OVERSHOOTING TOP. SUSPECT THE CAP WILL HOLD OFF
SURFACE BASED CONVECTION THIS EVENING...HOWEVER SHOULD ANY SUSTAINED
UPDRAFTS DEVELOP THEY WOULD BE TAPPING INTO EXTREME INSTABILITY AND
STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR AND WOULD LIKELY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR WITH
THREAT FOR LARGE IF NOT VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

IZZI

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAF DISCUSSION)
WOULD EXPECT MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS AT KJLN AND KSGF. OVERALL BEST
CHANCES FOR STORMS WILL BE NORTHEAST AND EAST OF KSGF.  LOWEST
CEILINGS WILL BE IN TWEB ROUTE FROM KSTL-KSGF WITH CONVECTION
REMAINING TO THE EAST OF ROLLA/VICHY.

LINDENBERG

&&

.SGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
.MO...HEAT ADVISORY ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM CASSVILLE TO LAMAR
TO VERSAILLES THROUGH 11 PM SATURDAY.
.KS...HEAT ADVISORY ALL ZONES THROUGH 11 PM SATURDAY.

WFO SGF

Hazardous weather outlook, Jul 18, 1:08 PM CDT, 7 hours 44 minutes before

KSZ073-097-101-MOZ055>058-066>071-077>083-088>098-101>106-191100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
108 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI OZARKS AND EXTREME
SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

  WEATHER HAZARDS EXPECTED:

  HEAT INDICES OF 100 TO 108 DEGREES.

  ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL TO THE
  SIZE OF HALF-DOLLARS AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH.

  AREAS AFFECTED AND TIMING:

  EXCESSIVE HEAT WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF WEST CENTRAL AND
  SOUTHWEST MISSOURI AS WELL AS SOUTHEAST KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
  EARLY EVENING...GENERALLY  ALONG AND WEST OF A CASSVILLE TO LAMAR
  TO VERSAILLES LINE.

  THE GREATEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST EAST OF
  A WARSAW...TO MARSHFIELD...TO GAINSEVILLE LINE AFTER 3 PM
  AND CONTINUING INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

  DISCUSSION:

  AN UPPER AIR DISTURBANCE TRACKING SOUTHEAST OUT OF IOWA WILL
  COMBINE WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY AND UNSTABLE AIR TO PRODUCE A
  COMPLEX OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MISSOURI
  THIS AFTERNOON.  THESE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH
  AND SOUTHEAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  SOME OF THESE
  STORMS MAY PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AS VERTICAL
  WIND SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED STORMS.  A LAYER OF WARM AIR
  AT MID-LEVELS MAY INHIBIT THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STORMS.
  THEREFORE...THE GREATEST THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS TODAY AND
  TONIGHT WILL BE EAST OF THE SPRINGFIELD AREA.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

  MORE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY
  THROUGH EARLY MONDAY...AS SEVERAL UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES WILL
  INTERACT WITH THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS OVER THE REGION. THE GREATEST
  LIKELIHOOD FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FROM THE LATE AFTERNOON INTO
  THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

  IN ADDITION...MORE HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ON
  SATURDAY...AS HEAT INDICES MAY ONCE AGAIN EXCEED 100 DEGREES
  ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND WESTERN MISSOURI.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

  SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED THIS AFTERNOON AND
  TONIGHT EAST OF A NEVADA TO ANDERSON LINE...WITH THE GREATEST
  THREAT OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS BEING EAST OF A WARSAW...TO
  MARSHFIELD...TO GAINESVILLE LINE.

&&

THIS PRODUCT IS NOW AVAILABLE IN GRAPHICAL FORMAT...ALONG WITH OTHER
WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE INFORMATION...AT
HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF

SAW

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Jul 18, 7:59 PM CDT, 53 minutes before

MOZ055>058-068>071-079>083-090>092-095>098-104>106-190700-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT - SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
759 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HAS ISSUED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NUMBER 762...IN EFFECT UNTIL 200 AM CDT SATURDAY MORNING. THIS SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

IN MISSOURI:

BENTON...CAMDEN...CHRISTIAN...DALLAS...DENT...DOUGLAS...GREENE...
HICKORY...HOWELL...LACLEDE...MARIES...MILLER...MORGAN...OREGON...
OZARK...PHELPS...POLK...PULASKI...SHANNON...TANEY...TEXAS...WEBSTER
AND WRIGHT.

SOME CITIES IN THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH INCLUDE AVA...
BOLIVAR...BRANSON...CAMDENTON...FORT LEONARD WOOD...HOUSTON...
LEBANON...OSAGE BEACH...OZARK...ROLLA...SPRINGFIELD AND WEST PLAINS.

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE WEATHER...INCLUDING LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
WINDS...AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH AREA.
WHILE SEVERE WEATHER MAY NOT BE IMMINENT...PERSONS SHOULD REMAIN
ALERT FOR RAPIDLY CHANGING WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND LISTEN FOR LATER
STATEMENTS AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

THIS PRODUCT...ALONG WITH OTHER WEATHER...HYDROLOGICAL AND CLIMATE
INFORMATION...IS AVAILABLE ON THE WEB AT HTTP://WWW.CRH.NOAA.GOV/SGF
OR AT HTTP://WEATHER.GOV.

LINDENBERG

Local storm report, Jul 18, 8:36 PM CDT, 16 minutes before

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SPRINGFIELD MO
836 PM CDT FRI JUL 18 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0830 PM    VERSAILLES                MO   1.75 INCH HAIL
07/18/03   MORGAN                         REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT OFFICIAL.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Springfield, MO issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Jul 18, 7:52 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Morgan	53 min
Jul 18, 8:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Morgan	60 min
Jul 18, 8:53 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Maries	52 min
Jul 18, 9:40 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Dent	65 min
Jul 18, 9:44 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden, Morgan	61 min
Jul 18, 10:01 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Miller	59 min
Jul 18, 10:14 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Oregon	61 min
Jul 18, 10:45 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Miller	60 min
Jul 18, 10:46 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Camden	44 min
Jul 18, 11:55 PM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Miller	80 min
Jul 19, 12:09 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Pulaski	81 min
Jul 19, 12:42 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Miller, Phelps, Pulaski	4 hr
Jul 19, 1:06 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Oregon	4 hr
Jul 19, 1:15 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Miller	75 min
Jul 19, 1:30 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Texas	75 min
Jul 19, 2:19 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Texas	4 hr
Jul 19, 3:47 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Howell	3 hr
Jul 19, 3:56 AM CDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	SGF	Howell, Ozark	34 min
Jul 19, 4:58 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Oregon	3 hr
Jul 19, 6:28 AM CDT	Flash Flood Warning	SGF	Shannon, Texas	4 hr

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Missouri, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.