Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Phoenix, AZ

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-260545-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
415 PM MST TUE FEB 25 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
A SERIES OF WEATHER SYSTEMS WILL MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
NORTHERN PACIFIC INTO THE SOUTHWEST UNITED STATES DURING THE NEXT
WEEK. THE FIRST STORM WILL MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA TONIGHT AND INTO
WEDNESDAY...PRODUCING RAIN IN THE DESERTS AND SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS.
WINTER STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR ABOVE 6000 FEET IN NORTHERN
ARIZONA WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW AREA POSSIBLE...AND A SNOW
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE MOUNTAINS EAST OF
PHOENIX FOR 1 OR 2 INCHES OF SNOW. THE MAIN STORM WILL MOVE EAST OF
ARIZONA BY LATE WEDNESDAY...BUT THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST ENOUGH
FOR CONTINUED CHANCE OF RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY
AFFECT MAINLY CENTRAL AND EASTERN ARIZONA THURSDAY...WITH STILL
ANOTHER WEAKER SYSTEM POSSIBLE ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

.DISCUSSION...
LOTS OF WEATHER OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH GOOD AMOUNTS OF RAIN OVER
OUR CWA. A STRONG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE THROUGH ARIZONA TONIGHT.
WHILE THE MAIN ENERGY WILL BE OF ARIZONA WEDNESDAY...AN GENERAL AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN FOR A CONTINUED CHANCE OF SHOWERS. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BRING SOME GOOD OMEGA VALUES AT LOWER ELEVATIONS
(850) MB RIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WHILE KEEPING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
HIGH. THE 500 TO 300 MB OMEGA FIELD...HOWEVER...DOES SHOW SOME
SUBSIDENCE WEDNESDAY...SO EXPECT SHOWERS TO BE ON THE DECREASE. THE
AIRMASS REMAINS UNSTABLE ENOUGH WEDNESDAY TO KEEP MENTIONING THE
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE LONG WAVE RIDGE REMAINING OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC AND A NORTHWEST WIND FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN STATES
...ANOTHER WEATHER SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO DROP DOWN INTO THE
SOUTHWEST ON THURSDAY. EXPECT THIS SYSTEM TO BE LESS OF A RAIN
BEARER FOR SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA AND FAR SOUTHWEST ARIZONA...AS THE
MAIN ENERGY STAYS TO THE NORTHEAST OF THAT AREA. STILL ANOTHER
TROUGH WILL DROP SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHERN PACIFIC ON ABOUT
SATURDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES NOT LOOK TO STRONG RIGHT NOW...BUT THAT
COULD CHANGE. STILL ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY AFFECT THE REGION EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

HAVE CONTINUED THE SNOW ADVISORY FOR ABOVE 5500 FEET WITH 1 OR 2
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY. A LITTLE SNOW MIXED WITH
RAIN COULD FALL DOWN TO ABOUT 5000 FEET. BERKOVITZ

.PSR...SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR AZZ024 (SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...FAR
NORTHEAST PINAL COUNTY).

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-260100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
600 AM MST TUE FEB 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS. OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...RAINFALL RATES WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE GREAT ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
STREET FLOODING...AND CAUSE WASHES TO RUN.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE 5000 FEET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.