Alert archive / Arizona / Flash Flood Warnings in 2003

Flash Flood Warning 1, NWS Phoenix, AZ

February 25, 2003La Paz County, Arizona

NWS Phoenix, AZ issued this flash flood warning at Feb 25, 2003, 2:41 PM MST for La Paz County, Arizona. It was in force for 64 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Feb 25, 2003, 2:41 PM MST (21:41 UTC)
Expired: Feb 25, 2003, 3:45 PM MST
In force: 64 min
Issued by: NWS Phoenix, AZ
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

County La Paz County, AZ

The radar

The Yuma radar (KYUX), 172 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 21:41 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this flash flood warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Yuma Intl Airpor, AZ (KYUM), launched 12:00Z, 9.7 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1442 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 55 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 112 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 122 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

000 
WGUS55 KPSR 252145
FFWPSR
AZC012-252245-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
241 PM MST TUE FEB 25 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PHOENIX HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
  NORTHERN LA PAZ COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ARIZONA

* UNTIL 345 PM MST(245 PM PST)

* AT 231 PM MST...WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY 
  HEAVY RAIN IN NORTHWEST LA PAZ COUNTY...INCLUDING THE CITY OF
  PARKER...PARKER DAM...POSTON...BOUSE...AND ALAMO DAM.

EXCESSIVE RAIN AND RUNOFF FROM THIS STORM WILL CAUSE FLASH FLOODING 
OF SMALL CREEKS AND STREAMS...HIGHWAYS AND UNDERPASSES. 
ADDITIONALLY...COUNTRY ROADS AND FARMLANDS ALONG THE BANKS OF 
COLORADO RIVER...AND STREAMS AND OTHER LOW LYING AREAS ARE SUBJECT 
TO FLASH FLOODING.

HEAVY RAINS COULD ALSO TRIGGER ROCK AND MUDSLIDES IN STEEP TERRAIN.

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING.
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.
RESIDENTS LIVING ALONG STREAMS AND CREEKS SHOULD TAKE IMMEDIATE
PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
SWIFTLY FLOWING WATERS OR WATERS OF UNKNOWN DEPTH BY FOOT OR BY
AUTOMOBILE. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK
HIGHER GROUND.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER HAVE THE NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT AGENCY
RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE IN
PHOENIX.

LAT...LON 3407 11480 3347 11413 3414 11349 3426 11409
          3407 11445

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Phoenix, AZ wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Feb 25, 9:30 AM MST, 5 hours 11 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Feb 25, 9:30 AM MST, 5 hours 11 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-252245-

SOUTHWEST ARIZONA/SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
930 AM MST TUE FEB 25 2003

.SYNOPSIS...
A WINTER STORM WILL BRING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY AND TONIGHT. HEAVY RAIN IS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ON THE SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA DESERTS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SEVERAL INCHES
OF SNOW MAY ACCUMULATE AT AND ABOVE 5000 FEET LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY
WEDNESDAY OVER SOUTHERN GILA AND NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTIES. A WEAK
WEATHER DISTURBANCE WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED ON WEDNESDAY
...WITH CLOUDS AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS. A STRONGER DISTURBANCE WILL
BRING A BETTER CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON THURSDAY...MAINLY OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL ARIZONA. THE UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL GRADUALLY BREAK
DOWN BY LATE THIS WEEKEND...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

.DISCUSSION...
IT SHOULD BE A RATHER ACTIVE WEATHER DAY TODAY AS THE STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA COAST SWINGS EASTWARD.
MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN BRINGING IN THE BEST DYNAMICS OVER
SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA TODAY AND OVER ARIZONA TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
ALSO...STABILITY INDICES SUGGEST ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE BIG QUESTION IS TO HOW
LOW THE SNOW LEVEL WILL BE TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...THOUGH
PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE CONSIDERABLY LIGHTER ON WEDNESDAY. RIGHT
SNOW WE HAVE A SNOW ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY ABOVE 5000
FEET...WITH THE SNOW LEVEL FORECAST TO BE DOWN AROUND 4500 FEET FOR
TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THIS MAY ON THE LOW SIDE. THOUGH THE UPPER
AIR SOUNDING AT VANDENBERG...NEAR THE LOW CENTER...SUGGEST A SNOW
LEVEL BETWEEN 5000 AND 5500 FEET IN THAT AREA...THE LOW WILL WEAKEN
SOME AS IT MOVES INTO ARIZONA. THE SNOW LEVEL FORECASTS FROM THE ETA
AND MESO-ETA MODELS SUGGEST A SNOW LEVEL OF AROUND 6000 FEET TONIGHT
AND POSSIBLY DOWN TO AROUND 5500 FEET EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THOUGH THE SNOW LEVEL FORECAST IS MISSING FROM BOTH THE 12Z NGM AND
00Z GFS MODELS...THE FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST A SNOW LEVEL PERHAPS
A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE ETA MODEL. MAY HAVE TO EITHER CANCEL THE
SNOW ADVISORY OR RAISE IT TO ABOVE 5500 FEET IN THE AFTERNOON
PACKAGE...WHICH WOULD ELIMINATE ALL BUT THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS IN ZONE
24. OTHERWISE...DO NOT PLAN TO UPDATE THE FORECAST THIS MORNING.
BERKOVITZ

.PSR...SNOW ADVISORY ABOVE 5000 FEET TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR AZZ024 (SOUTHERN GILA COUNTY...NORTHEAST MARICOPA COUNTY...FAR
NORTHEAST PINAL COUNTY).

Hazardous weather outlook, Feb 25, 6:00 AM MST, 8 hours 41 minutes before

AZZ020>028-CAZ030>033-260100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PHOENIX AZ
600 AM MST TUE FEB 25 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...AND SOUTHEAST CALIFORNIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TODAY AND TONIGHT. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...AND SMALL HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE
STRONGEST STORMS. OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL ARIZONA...RAINFALL RATES WITH
SHOWERS AND STORMS MAY BE GREAT ENOUGH TO CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
STREET FLOODING...AND CAUSE WASHES TO RUN.

A SNOW ADVISORY HAS BEEN POSTED FOR SOUTH CENTRAL ARIZONA ABOVE 5000
FEET FOR TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY...WHERE SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW
ACCUMULATION ARE EXPECTED BY EARLY WEDNESDAY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SOME SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE AT AND ABOVE 5000 FEET OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
ARIZONA THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

Nearby

Flash Flood Warnings in Arizona, 2003 Every flash flood warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.