Flash Flood Warning 40, NWS New York, NY

000 
WGUS71 KOKX 291933
FFSOKX
NYC087-292100-

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
230 PM EST WED OCT 29 2003


...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES UNTIL 400 PM FOR ROCKLAND COUNTY 
IN SOUTHEAST NEW YORK

AT 230 PM EST...THE MAHWAH RIVER AT SUFFERN WAS AT 4.18 FEET AND IS 
SLOWLY RECEDING. FLOOD STAGE IS 4.00 FEET. FLASH FLOODING IS STILL 
EXPECTED ALONG THE MAHWAH RIVER THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.     

A FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. 
IF YOU ARE IN THE WARNING AREA MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND IMMEDIATELY.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE 
ROADWAY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED. MOVE TO
HIGHER GROUND.

$$

LAT...LON 4115 7427 4108 7414 4099 7387 4129 7398

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
1000 AM EST WED OCT 29 2003

.UPDATE...HEAVIEST RAINS ARE JUST ABOUT OUT OF THE CWA WITH ANOTHER
1-3 HRS OF LINGERING SHRAS.  WILL BE SENDING AN UPDATE OF PRODUCTS
SHORTLY TO UPDATE OF REST OF TODAY...SHRAS ENDING AND TO ACCOUNT
FOR WINDS/ETC.

.AVIATION...IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR BEGINNING AT
THE NY METRO AIRPORTS. CENTER OF LOW PRES OVER CT LATE THIS AM. WILL
DEEPEN AS IT MOVES NE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON. THE LAST OF
THE RAIN WILL MOVE OFF TO THE EAST EARLY TO MID AFTER. FLOW
BRIEFLY PULL TO NW-NNW AS LOW DEEPENS...THEN SETTLE IN A WLY
DIRECTION REST OF DAY INTO THU AM.

.MARINE...EARLIER UPDATE SHOULD HAVE SITUATION UNDER CONTROL FOR NOW
AND WILL JUST UPDATE TO MAKE THE TRANSITION TO THE AFTERNOON BEHIND
THE SFC LOW AND COLD FRONT.

.HYDROLOGY...HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSED MINOR FLOODING AT SEVERAL
LOCATIONS. SOILS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE PREVIOUS STORM. THIS
HEAVY RAIN HAS CAUSE RISES ALONG MANY OF THE RIVERS AND STREAMS
ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON VALLEY AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY. BASIN
AVERAGES RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS
POSSIBLE.

*** EXCERPTS FROM PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.DISCUSSION...OTHER THAN TODAY...THE REST OF THE FCST LOOKS RATHER
NICE. FRONT SWEEPS OFFSHORE LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BRING AN END TO
THE THREAT OF PCPN. SKIES CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...AND FAIR WX WL EXTEND
FROM TMRW THRU THE WEEKEND AND EVEN INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK. BACKDOOR
FRONT MAY KNOCK ON OUR BACKDOORS THIS WEEKEND INTO THE EARLY WEEK.
HOWEVER...CURRENT MODEL INDICATIONS LOOK LIKE IT MAY STAY N. ECM AND
GFS SEEM TO BE IN BETTER THAN AVG AGREEMENT ON THIS. THIS MEANS A
WARM WEEKEND AND WARM MONDAY (70S POSSIBLE). WOULD BE A NICE INDIAN
SUMMER, INDEED. ONCE AGAIN, BACKDOOR FRONT WL HAVE TO BE WATCHED AS
IT MAY WANT TO PLAY THE SPOILER (ESP SUNDAY).
&&

*** END PREVIOUS DISCUSSION ***

.OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ALL BUT NY HARBOR...
           ANZ355-353-350-335-330.

REYNOLDS/IAA/NF

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-301100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
530 AM EST WED OCT 29 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY CAUSE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS THIS
MORNING...AS WELL AS FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS. CREEKS AND STREAMS
WILL EXPERIENCE SIGNIFICANT RISES AS 1 TO 2 INCHES IS EXPECTED TO
FALL THIS MORNING...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS.

WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP OVER
EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND EASTERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY NOT BE NECESSARY TODAY.

CTZ005>012-NYZ078>081-291415-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
813 AM EST WED OCT 29 2003

AT 812 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY
HAS DETECTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM
NEAR SOUTHBURY CONNECTICUT TO COPIAGUE NEW YORK...MOVING EAST AT 20
MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE VICINITY OF...
SMITHTOWN...ISLIP...HAUPPAUGE...CENTRAL ISLIP AROUND 820 AM...
MIDDLEBURY AROUND 825 AM...

WIND GUSTS FROM 46 MPH TO 57 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
IN ADDITION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF UP TO 1 INCH PER INCH CAN BE
EXPECTED.

HEAVY RAINS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY FLOOD LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS SUCH AS DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS
AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED ROADS.

REYNOLDS

CTZ008-012-NYZ079-081-291515-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
919 AM EST WED OCT 29 2003

AT 917 AM EST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN UPTON NY
HAS DETECTED AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS ABOUT 20 MILES SOUTH OF
SOUTHAMPTON...MOVING NORTH-NORTHEAST AT 70 MPH.

THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE IN
THE VICINITY OF...
SOUTHAMPTON...NOYACK...WATERMILL...SAG HARBOR AROUND 930 AM...
NEW LONDON...GROTON AROUND 945 AM
NORWICH AROUND 955 AM

WIND GUSTS FROM 46 MPH TO 57 MPH CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THESE STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR CAN BE EXPECTED AS
WELL.

SR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1107 AM EST WED OCT 29 2003

TIME(EST)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

0920 AM    BETHANY                   CT   WIND DAMAGE
10/29/03   NEW HAVEN                      TREES DOWNED ON PAYNE
                                          ROAD. REPORTED BY LAW
                                          ENFORCEMENT