Flash Flood Warning 22, NWS New York, NY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
315 PM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

.DISCUSSION...ALL FORECAST MODELS ARE IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH THE
PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY WEAKENING AS THE OFFSHORE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SLOWLY STRENGTHENS AND BUILDS WEST ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH THURSDAY. THIS WILL ACTUALLY RESULT IN A BIT MORE
OPTIMISTIC FORECAST...IN TERMS OF MORE SUNSHINE AND LESS RAIN
THROUGH FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH DIURNAL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS WILL
OCCUR TUE/WED AND THU AFTERNOONS AND EVENINGS. AS UPPER LEVEL
SUBSIDENCE INCREASES...MORE SUN WILL BREAK THROUGH EACH DAY. THE GFS
MODEL SHOWS A REAL BREAK IN THE PERSISTENT HIGH HUMIDITY...WITH THE
PASSAGE OF A STRONG COLD FRONT FRI EVENING...POSSIBLY PRECEDED BY A
SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OUTBREAK FRI AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS
WEEKEND...LOOKS GREAT...WITH LOW HUMIDITY AND BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES.
&&

.SHORT TERM...BECAUSE THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING EXISTS THROUGH THIS EVENING...THE FLOOD WATCH WILL BE
CONTINUED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND TSTMS CONTINUE TO DEVELOP UPSTREAM
ACROSS CENTRAL NJ THROUGH 3 PM. BASED ON A PRECIPITABLE WATER
CONTENT OF 1.94 INCHES AND A MEAN STORM SPEED OF LESS THAN 10
KNOTS...RAINFALL RATES OF AT LEAST 2 INCHES PER HOUR ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SINGLE OR CLUSTER OF SHOWERS OR TSTM. WITH THE SURFACE FLOW
FORECAST TO DECOUPLE FROM THE UPPER FLOW AFTER 00Z...AREAS OF FOG
WILL DEVELOP AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE INCLUDED IN THE OVERNIGHT
FORECAST.
&&

.AVIATION...CURRENTLY VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS...WE HAD A
PEAK OF SUN ACROSS LONG ISLAND AND COASTAL CONNECTICUT FOR A FEW
HOURS...BUT SLOWLY DISAPPEAR WITH THE CLOUDS STREAMING ACROSS FROM
THE SOUTHWEST. CONDITIONS SHOULD SLOWLY DETERIORATE TO MVFR
TONIGHT...LOCALLY IFR AS SHOWERS...BRIEFLY MODERATE TO HEAVY DEVELOP
ACROSS THE AREA.

&&

.MARINE...BASED ON THE LONG SOUTH FETCH AND A PERSISTENT WEAK S TO
SW WIND FLOW...WAVE HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO HOVER AROUND 5 FT. THE
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR ROUGH SEAS OVER THE OCEAN WILL BE CONTINUED
WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
&&

.HYDRO...THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING WAS
DISCUSSED IN THE SHORT TERM SECTION ABOVE. BASIN AVERAGE RAINFALL
AMOUNTS SHOULD RANGE FROM 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH THROUGH THIS
EVENING...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS UP TO 3 INCHES.
&&

.RADAR...WILL CONTINUE WITH THE TROPICAL Z-R RELATIONSHIP.
&&

.OKX...
CT...FLOOD WATCH FOR 005>012.
NJ...FLOOD WATCH FOR 002>006-011.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FOR 067-081.
MARINE...SCA FOR ROUGH OCEAN SEAS...ANZ355-353-350.

GC

CTZ005>012-NJZ002>006-011-NYZ067>081-120900-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE UPTON NY
414 AM EDT MON AUG 11 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST NEW YORK...
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT.

.DAY ONE...TODAY
A FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE REGION AS LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN IS EXPECTED AGAIN. IN ADDITION...A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY
CONTINUES FOR THE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS FOR ROUGH SEAS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN MAY STILL THREATEN THE AREA THROUGH A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WEEK. THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY MAY CONTINUE THROUGH
TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.