Severe Thunderstorm Warning 261, NWS Nashville, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
1000 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003

A SURFACE LOW LOCATED OVER EASTERN ARKANSAS IS MOVING EAST SOUTHEAST
WITH THE UPPER LOW SITUATED JUST TO THE WEST OVER CENTRAL ARKANSAS.
A WARM FRONT CURLS NORTHEAST FROM THE LOW OVER TENNESSEE AND
KENTUCKY. A COLD FRONT EXTENDS SOUTHWESTWARD FROM THE LOW THROUGH
SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

MODELS PUSH H5 LOW OVER ARKANSAS SOUTHEASTWARD, WITH AVN BREAKING OFF
A LARGE CHUNK AND PUSHING IT NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN KILLING IT OFF.
THE AVN IN THE PROCESS PUSHES EXTENSIVE PRECIP NORTHEASTWARD WITH
1.5-2.25 INCHES PER 6 HRS OF MODEL PRECIP OVER WESTERN TENNESSEE
AND KENTUCKY. IN ANY EVENT RAIN TOTALS FOR THE MIDSTATE WILL INCREASE
OVER THE NEXT 12 HRS. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE IS RELATIVELY LOW FOR THE
NORTHEAST COUNTIES. IF SIGNIFICANT PRECIP MOVES INTO THAT AREA...WILL
HAVE TO CONSIDER A FLOOD WATCH.

AREA REMAINS GENERALLY UNSTABLE...ALTHOUGH THE BEST INSTABILITY AND
SHEAR IS TO THE SOUTH OVER AL/MS. MENTION OF STRONG STORMS IN ZONES
WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE IN THE SOUTHERN GROUPS LOOKS GOOD.

NO CHANGES FOR NOW.

.BNA...NONE.

JLM

TNZ005>011-022>034-056>066-075>080-093>097-181030-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED DAY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
530 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY. THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES
OF MIDDLE TENNESSEE. DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT.

SOME THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTAIN VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS. LOCALIZED
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITHIN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME COULD CAUSE PONDING ON
ROADS AS WELL AS VERY POOR VISIBILITY. MOTORISTS SHOULD SLOW DOWN
AND BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS WHEN ENCOUNTERING HEAVY THUNDERSTORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE WILL CONTINUE TO BE A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH SUNDAY. SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS. FOR MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THERE WILL
BE A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY...WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY BE
NEEDED TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

13

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE,TN
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1159 AM    LYNCHBURG                 TN   WIND DAMAGE
05/17/03   MOORE                          LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          TREE ON HOUSE ON POLECAT
                                          ROAD

1120 AM    FAYETTEVILLE              TN   WIND DAMAGE
05/17/03   LINCOLN                        LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          TREES DOWN ON HWY 273 AND
                                          PATRICK ROAD

1120 AM    MANCHESTER                TN   WIND DAMAGE
05/17/03   COFFEE                         LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          TREES BLOWN DOWN IN SEVERAL
                                          LOCATIONS AROUND MANCHESTER

JLM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT. . . .CORRECTED FOR TIME OF REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE,TN
1230 PM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003

TIME(CDT)  .....CITY LOCATION.....STATE   ...EVENT/REMARKS...
           ....COUNTY LOCATION....

1215 PM    MANCHESTER                TN   WIND DAMAGE
05/17/03   COFFEE                         LAW ENFORCEMENT REPORTED
                                          TREES BLOWN DOWN IN SEVERAL
                                          LOCATIONS AROUND MANCHESTER

END/JAO