Alert archive / Montana / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2003

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Missoula, MT

March 14, 2003Flathead County, Lake County, Montana

NWS Missoula, MT issued this severe thunderstorm warning at Mar 14, 2003, 4:02 PM MST for Flathead County, Lake County, Montana. It was in force for 43 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Mar 14, 2003, 4:02 PM MST (23:02 UTC)
Expired: Mar 14, 2003, 4:45 PM MST
In force: 43 min
Issued by: NWS Missoula, MT
Area: Counties, with a storm outline in the text

Counties Flathead County, MT, Lake County, MT

Did it verify

Not verified. The Iowa Environmental Mesonet's Cow found no qualifying storm report inside this severe thunderstorm warning while it was in force. That is not proof nothing happened: reports are thin where few people live.

Cow counts a report within 15 km of the polygon while the warning was in force: a tornado for a tornado warning; hail of 1 inch or more, a gust of 58 mph or more or wind damage for a severe thunderstorm warning; a flash flood report for a flash flood warning.

The nearest sounding before it

Spokane, WA (KOTX), launched 12:00Z, 11.0 hours before the alert went out and 168 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 2119 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 54 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 12 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 59 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

806 
WUUS55 KMSO 142302
SVRMSO
MTC029-047-142345-

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
400 PM MST FRI MAR 14 2003

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MISSOULA HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  FLATHEAD COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA
  LAKE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MONTANA

* UNTIL 445 PM MST

* AT 400 PM MST...RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS 
FROM PABLO NORTHWEST TO MARION. MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EFFECT POLSON BY 4 PM AND KALISPELL 
BY 410 PM.

DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH ARE LIKELY WITH THIS SEVERE 
THUNDERSTORM. IF YOU ARE CAUGHT OUTSIDE...MOVE TO A WELL PROTECTED 
AREA.

LAT...LON 4809 11461 4720 11380 4740 11351 4841 11425

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Missoula, MT wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at Mar 14, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 32 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Mar 14, 2:30 PM MST, 1 hour 32 minutes before

WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
230 PM MST FRI MAR 14 2003

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT...CONVECTION CURRENTLY STARTING TO FIRE WITH A
LINE EVIDENT ON SATELLITE AND RADAR...NOW ENTERING THE CENTRAL IDAHO
PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST MONTANA. SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH A DECENT
SHORTWAVE AND A COLD POOL ALOFT WILL MAKE FOR AN UNSTABLE EVENING
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL KEEP SHOWERS...WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
GOING THROUGH ABOUT 7 PM THEN THEY SHOULD DIE OFF AFTER THE SUN GOES
DOWN. DURING THE EARLY MORNING THE NEXT APPROACHING SHORTWAVE WILL
BEGIN TO GENERATE PRECIPITATION OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL IDAHO. WILL
INCREASE CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN CENTRAL IDAHO AND NW MONTANA...
WILL LOWER THEM ELSEWHERE. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER
TONIGHT THEN LAST. COOLER AIRMASS OVERHEAD AS WELL AS SOME PARTIAL
CLEARING TONIGHT SHOULD HELP PUSH TEMPS DOWN. THESE COOLER
TEMPERATURES WILL HELP STEM RUNOFF FROM SNOWMELT...HELPING TO LOWER
THE THREAT OF FLOODING. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY PICKING UP ALONG THE
CAMAS PRAIRIE AND SALMON RIVER CANYONS. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO
DECREASE SOME THIS EVENING AND THEN INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY
MORNING AS THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ENTERS THE AREA.
GILCHRIST

A STRONGER PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO NORTHCENTRAL IDAHO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND ACROSS WESTERN MONTANA SATURDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY SUNDAY. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME UNSTABLE WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THIS SYSTEM.  IN ADDITION...A COOLER AIR MASS WILL FLOOD ACROSS THE
REGION LOWERING SNOW LEVELS SIGNIFICANTLY BY SUNDAY.  A FAIRLY
UNSTABLE AND COOL AIR MASS WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY.

.LONG TERM...A DISORGANIZED AND SPLIT FLOW ALOFT WILL DOMINATE MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  WEATHER DISTURBANCES THAT MOVE INLAND FROM THE PACIFIC
WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AND LIKELY FALL APART.  THE END RESULT
SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND A RELATIVELY LOW THREAT OF
PRECIPITATION. BAUCK

.MSO...WIND ADVISORY FOR IDZ007-008 TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING

...7-DAY SPOT TEMPS AND POPS...
LIB WEE 035/054 034/051 028/049 33666333
     BBBB 026/049 027/051 029/051 030/052 2931111222
FCA WEB 033/056 032/050 025/049 33456323
     BBBB 024/049 024/051 026/051 027/049 2922111222
POL WEB 037/059 033/052 027/050 33456323
     BBBB 025/050 026/051 028/051 029/050 2921111222
MSO WEB 034/059 033/051 027/050 33446423
     BBBB 026/050 026/052 028/052 029/052 2922111222
HMM WWB 035/060 034/052 027/051 33447523
     BBBB 025/051 027/053 029/053 030/053 2922111222
BTM EJB 030/057 028/045 020/042 33325623
     BBBB 019/044 020/045 022/045 023/049 2922111222
ORO WBE 045/060 039/055 032/053 33666434
     BBBB 030/053 030/055 032/055 033/058 2932111222
GRV WEE 042/057 035/052 025/049 33666434
     BBBB 024/049 024/052 026/052 027/051 2942222222
SMN WWB 034/059 031/049 025/046 33447523
     BBBB 024/046 024/049 026/049 027/051 2922111222

Hazardous weather outlook, Mar 14, 1:35 PM MST, 2 hours 27 minutes before

MTZ001>007-043-IDZ005>010-151300-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MISSOULA MT
135 PM MST FRI MAR 14 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL IDAHO

.DAY ONE... TODAY

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOW ACROSS THE CAMAS PRAIRIE AND
SALMON RIVER CANYONS OF CENTRAL IDAHO TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NON PRECIPITATION WEATHER STATEMENT...GTFNPWMSO
FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN... SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

The office that day

Everything else NWS Missoula, MT issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Mar 14, 4:14 PM MST	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	MSO	Missoula	31 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Montana, 2003 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2003

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.