Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Morristown, TN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
930 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

THE FOLLOWING ARE ALL THE FORECAST DISCUSSIONS FROM THE PAST 24
HOURS...WITH THE MOST RECENT ON TOP. THIS PROVIDES A HISTORY OF THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.
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LATE MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
930 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A WEAK FRONT PUSHING SOUTH THROUGH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY...SLOWLY TRENDING TOWARDS THE TN BORDER.
RADAR SHOWS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN SOUTH
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY STRETCHING EAST INTO SW VA...AND EXTREME NE
TN. SCATTERED SHOWERS/TSTORMS SHOULD REACH NORTH AND CENTRAL ZONES
BY AFTN...FEW IN SOUTHERN CWA. FORECAST PORTRAYS THIS SCENARIO FINE
WITH NO NEED FOR ANY CHANGE TO POPS...WILL REMOVE SOME MORNING
WORDING AND TWEAK CLOUDS NEAR MTN ZONES TO MOSTLY CLOUDY.

.MRX...
NC...NONE.
TN...NONE.
VA...NONE.

BS
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EARLY MORNING FORECAST DISCUSSION
328 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY.  MODELS
SHOW THIS FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA TODAY AND POSSIBLY MOVING INTO
THE REGION TONIGHT BEFORE BECOMING STATIONARY.  BOUNDARY WILL WEAKEN
AS IT MOVES SOUTH WITH LIMITED SHORT-WAVE ENERGY...SO DO NOT EXPECT
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
HIGH CHANCE POPS NORTH AND CENTRAL AND LOW CHANCE SOUTH FOR TODAY.

MODELS SHOW A GOOD DEAL OF MOISTURE OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY WITH DAYTIME HEATING/LOCAL TERRAIN PRODUCING SCATTERED
MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS.  PATTERN IS MORE TYPICAL
OF EARLY SUMMER THAN SPRING.

TRENDED TOWARD THE WARMER HIGHS...ESPECIALLY FOR CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN SECTIONS.

FCSTID =   15
CHA   82  60  83  61 /  40  20  40  30
TYS   80  59  82  60 /  50  20  40  30
TRI   75  56  78  56 /  50  10  40  30
OQT   79  59  81  60 /  50  20  40  30

DH
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EVENING FORECAST DISCUSSION (UPDATE)
900 PM EDT MON APR 28 2003

RADAR MOSAIC SHOWS SCATTERED CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN ILLINOIS AND
SOUTHWESTERN INDIANA. THIS AREA IS PROJECTED TO APPROACH OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES TOWARD DAYBREAK. CURRENT FORECAST HAS THIS COVERED WELL.
TEMPS LOOK REASONABLE. NO UPDATE PLANNED AT THIS TIME.

LCM

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AFTERNOON FORECAST DISCUSSION
310 PM EDT MON APR 28 2003

HIGH PRESSURE IS MOVING EAST OFF THE COAST...AS A COLD FRONT SLIDES
ACROSS THE MS VALLEY. THIS COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TUESDAY
MORNING ENTERING THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. INSTABILITY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WILL ALLOW FOR THUNDERSTORM TO FIRE UP AHEAD AND ALONG
THE BOUNDARY. IT STALLS OUT AND MOVES BACK NORTH AS A WARM FRONT
LEAVING US IN THE WARM SECTOR...BRINGING A SUMMERTIME LIKE PATTERN
FOR WED WITH AFTN AND EVE THUNDERSTORMS/SHOWERS.

IN THE EXTENDED...SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
LEVELS ACROSS THE REGION...WITH SCATTERED TSTORMS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
AGAIN ON THURSDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FRIDAY MORNING ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE REGION BRINGING
A CONTINUED CHANCE FOR TSTORMS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. THE WEEKEND
LOOKS DRY WITH MORE SEASONAL TEMPERATURES.

THE FOLLOWING NUMBERS ARE PRELIMINARY AND FOR COORDINATION ONLY:

CHA   58  80  57  81 /  10  40  50  30
TYS   58  76  57  78 /  20  60  50  30
TRI   53  73  53  75 /  20  60  40  30
OQT   57  76  57  77 /  20  60  50  30

BS

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NCZ060-061-TNZ012>018-035>047-067>074-081>087-098>102-VAZ001-002-005-006-008-301000-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MORRISTOWN TN
635 AM EDT TUE APR 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN
VIRGINIA...EAST TENNESSEE AND SOUTHWESTERN NORTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

DH