Tornado Warning 42, NWS Twin Cities, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
320 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

...SIG SEVERE WX EVENT POSSIBLE THIS EVENING OVR MN/WI...

MESO HIGH OVER SERN MN CONTINUES TO REALLY STABILIZE THINGS OVR
CNTRL MN...WITH DEWPTS FALLING AND TEMPS STRUGGLING TO RISE. THIS
HAS KEPT INSTABILITY ON PERIPHERY OF CWA...MAINLY IN FAR WCNTL AND
FAR NRN CWA.  18Z MPX RAOB REFLECTS THIS RELATIVE STABLE ATMS. AREA
OF CONCERN VERY SHORT TERM IS COLD FRONT FROM BAUDETTE TO ABERDEEN
TO HURON. FINE LINES OF CU FORMING ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT AS STRONG
UPR FORCING IS APPROACHING. PROFILERS FROM WOOD LAKE AND MERRIMAN
SHOWING FLOW ON THE INCREASE IN MID LEVELS...WITH SB INSTABILITY
INCREASING AS TEMPS/DWPTS NEAR 90/65.  VRY IMPRESSIVE TAIL END OF
OUTFLOW/WARM FRONT FROM SFC LOW NEAR CHAMBERLAIN SOUTHEAST TO ABOUT
AMES IA. BIG MOISTURE/INSTABILITY ALONG/SOUTH OF BNDRY BUT VRY
CAPPED. CU FORMING ALONG THIS...AND LIFTING NORTH ON INCREASING SLY
FLOW.

STILL THINK TORNADO THREAT IS BEST FAR WCTNL MN EARLY THIS EVE...AND
PERHAPS LATER SCNTL/SWRN CWA IF BNDRY IN NWRN IA/SERN SD MOVES
NORTH. BUT DRYING IN WAKE OF MCV HAS LIFTED LCLS TO MARGINAL
HEIGHTS...AND UNLESS HIGHER MOISTURE ARRIVES AT SFC...MAY BE LOOKING
SOLELY AT BOW/MCS EVENT OVER MY CWA. WF HAS STALLED IN SD/IA...BUT
MIGRATION NORTH WILL BEGIN AGAIN AS LLJ/SLY FLOW CONT TO INCR AND LO
MOVES INTO SWRN MN. STILL SUBSCRIBING TO THEORY THAT FRONT IN NERN
SD/SERN SD WILL LIGHT HERE IN THE NEXT FEW HOURS...AND BECOME A
LINEAR MCS. TAIL END MAY BE COMPOSED OF SUPERCELLULAR STORMS WHICH
INGEST INTO THE LINE. AS WIND MAX IN MID LEVELS ARRIVES...BOWING
SEGMENTS AND LINE ACCELERATION WILL TAKE PLACE. IF WF LIFTS INTO
CWA...THINGS MAY REALLY GET DICEY WITH SEVERAL MODES OF SEVERE. WL
NEED TO WATCH LLVL ATMS CHANGES THIS EVE AND HOW TREMENDOUS
INSTABILITY/MOISTURE SOUTH OF WARM FRONT IS TAPPED. MUCH OF SVR IN
CWA EXPECTED AFT 00Z...AND ENDING BY 08Z. DAMAGING WINDS STILL THE
MAIN THREAT WITH EXPECTED BOW MCS CROSSING CWA NORTH OF WF.

BASICALLY KEPT MONDAY AND TUESDAY DRY AS BIG HIGH MOVES IN OVR
LAKES. DRIER ELY FLOW AS BAROCLINIC ZONE STALLS AGAIN OVR IA/NE. MAY
BE MCS AFFECTS IN SWRN/SRN CWA MON NIGHT AND TUE NIGHT. WED LOOKS
VERY ACTIVE AS BNDRY RETURNS WITH STRONG DITURBANCE. STRONG WIND
FIELDS AND TIGHT INSTABILITY GRADIENTS SUGGEST STORMS A PLENTY. GFS
NOT AS BULLISH SO KEEPING CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. WARMING INTO WEEKEND
AS HEIGHTS/THICKNESSES BUILD.

.MSP...TOR WATCH #656 FOR DOUGLAS...TODD...MORRISON COUNTIES TIL 10
PM...

BINAU

MNZ041>045-047>070-073>078-082>085-091>093-WIZ014>016-023>028-071100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
1225 PM CDT SUN JUL 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...AND WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
IN THE VICINITY OF A PAIR OF APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARIES.  A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING FROM FAR NORTHWEST MINNESOTA TO AROUND ABERDEEN WILL
PUSH INTO WEST CENTRAL MINNESOTA THIS EVENING.  FARTHER SOUTH...A
WARM FRONT OVER NORTHEAST NEBRASKA AND CENTRAL IOWA IS EXPECTED TO
SURGE NORTHWARD INTO SOUTHERN MINNESOTA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
SCATTERED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT ACROSS SOUTHERN AND
WESTERN MINNESOTA BY LATE AFTERNOON...FROM AROUND ALEXANDRIA TO
REDWOOD FALLS...AND POSSIBLY AROUND MANKATO AND FAIRMONT.  THE
THREAT FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS INCREASES RAPIDLY DURING THE EVENING
AS THESE TWO FRONTAL BOUNDARIES COLLIDE ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MINNESOTA.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SWEEP FROM WEST CENTRAL
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA THROUGH MIDNIGHT...AND
INTO WEST CENTRAL WISCONSIN AROUND OR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT.  SOME
OF THESE STORMS WILL BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS WILL ALSO FAVOR A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS WEST CENTRAL INTO SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA.

MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO WEST CENTRAL
WISCONSIN REMAINS UNDER A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER LATER
TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
OVERNIGHT.

MBK