Severe Thunderstorm Warning 84, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
750 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

SO FAR WE ARE JUST SPECTATORS TO THE SEVERE WEATHER SHOW GOING ON TO
THE NORTH AND WEST.  IR AND WATER VAPOR PICS PRETTY MUCH TELL THE
STORY...WITH THE AREA OF STRONGER UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND DYNAMIC LIFT
PASSING TO THE NORTH ACROSS THE JAN AND BMX AREAS.  WE ARE STILL
CLOSELY WATCHING THE STORMS ON THE SOUTH END OF THE MS COMPLEX...
MOVING OUT OF SOUTHWEST MS.  WHILE MOST OF THE ACTION WILL PROBABLY
MISS OUR AREA TO THE NORTH...WE COULD GET CLIPPED ACROSS THE
NORTHWESTERN ZONES LATER THIS EVENING.  THIS IS ONE REASON WHY WE
WERE MORE THAN HAPPY TO LEAVE WAYNE AND CHOCTAW COUNTIES GOING IN
THE NEW TORNADO WATCH.  LOW LEVEL JET TO THE WEST WITH 3 KM HELICITY
VALUES STILL RUNNING AROUND 260 M2/S2 ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES.

CAPES RUNNING RATHER HIGH ON THE LATEST LAPSE DATA ACROSS SOUTHEAST
LA...BUT APPARENTLY NOT BEING REALIZED BECAUSE OF THE CAP.  WHILE
THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE TO THE NORTH CLOSER TO THE
BETTER DYNAMIC FORCING ALOFT...THAT IS NOT TO SAY THE MIDLEVEL CAP
ABSOLUTELY WONT BREAK TO THE SOUTH AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH
LATER TONIGHT.  IF ANYTHING DOES BREAK THROUGH THE CAP...THEN IT
COULD GET TOUGH.  MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER TONIGHT LOOKS TO BE
FROM WAYNESBORO TO BUTLER.

STAY TUNED.

05/GARMON

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-070600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
910 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TONIGHT)

THERE IS A MODERATE TO HIGH RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND INTERIOR SOUTHWEST
ALABAMA TONIGHT.  PERSONS ACROSS THESE AREAS ARE URGED TO MONITOR
THE LATEST WEATHER DEVELOPMENTS.  THE MAIN CONCERN WITH THESE STORMS
WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY)

A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AND AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS THE
AREA...MAINLY FROM LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES.  THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT
WILL DIMINISH EARLY ON TUESDAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES TO THE COAST
AND THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT MOVES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER OFFICIALS FOR
SEVERE WEATHER OPERATIONS IS NOT EXPECTED...HOWEVER...CONCERNED
PARTIES SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG STORMS
THROUGH THIS EVENING.

ALZ051-MSZ067-070400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
848 PM CDT SUN APR 6 2003

...TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING...

AT 845 PM CDT...DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM
MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.  THIS STORM WAS
MOVING RAPIDLY EAST AROUND 40 MPH. ON THIS PRESENT MOTION...THIS
STORM HAS THE POTENTIAL OF ENTERING WEST TO NORTHWEST SECTIONS OF
WAYNE COUNTY BETWEEN 930 AND 1030 PM...THEN INTO SOUTHERN TO
CENTRAL SECTIONS OF CHOCTAW COUNTY BETWEEN 1030 AND 1130 PM.

THIS STORM HAS A HISTORY OF DOING SUBSTANTIAL DAMAGE OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI.

A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF TORNADOES. STAY TUNED FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES AND WARNINGS.