Severe Thunderstorm Warning 248, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
134 PM CDT MON AUG  4 2003

.SHORT TERM...ANALYZED 500 MB TROUGH DIGGING DEEPER INTO THE GULF
REGION TODAY AS EXPECTED. FAIRLY STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WITH
VORTLOBES TRANSITING THE TROUGH THROUGH TUESDAY. DIVERGING THICKNESS
IS OUT OF OUR ENVELOPE...AND THETA-E RIDGE MIGRATED NORTH. IT IS
INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE AVN SHOWS N AREA OF FRONTOGENESIS AND
DIVERGENCE OF Q VECTORS LINING UP FROM TX TO MS. INDICATES ATMOSPHERE
IS GOING TO ATTEMPT FORCING CONVECTION IN FRONTOGENETIC ENVIRONMENT
OVER NEXT 24 HRS...AN OMEGA BULLSEYE CAN BE SEEN OVER NW AL AND
EXTENDING SW TOWARD GLS-HOU AND INTO CRP. WOULD THINK THIS MOST
LIKELY THIS IS RELATED TO THE DEFORMATION AND TEMP GRADIENTS
COINCIDING ALONG THE COASTLINE FROM TX TO FL. MOISTURE XPORT IS
LIMITED OVER CWA AND INCREASES NORTHWARD. MEAN RH ALSO INDICATES
LIMITATION TO THE MOISTURE PICTURE...SO EXPECT ALL THAT VIGOR WILL
NOT DO MUCH MORE THAN GENERATE A MID DECK AND SCT CONVECTION. GOOD
CHANCE POPS SHOULD COVER US WELL IN CASE MOISTURE ADVECTION PICTURE
CHANGES IT TO ORGANIZED CONVECTION. GFS CONTINUES TO FIRE AN MCS
OUR WAY FROM THE NORTHWEST AROUND 18Z AND IT WEAKENS IN 6 TO 12 HR
LATER IN THE DEFORMATION FIELD. CONTINUED SEABREEZE OVER THE
WEEK...ALBEIT A BIT MORE DRY.

.EXTENDED...GFS MODEL RUNS OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS SHOW LESS
VARIABILITY THAN YESTERDAY ESPECIALLY AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF SYSTEMS
DAYS 5 THROUGH 7. AMPLIFIED UPPER TROUGH DEVELOPING A SURFACE LOW
OVER GEORGIA THU...TROUGH CONTINUES PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH HERE BY
THURSDAY. THAT WOULD BRING WIND OUT OF THE NORTH ALLOWING IT TO
ESTABLISH A DRYOUT TREND. WOULD ALSO EXPECT THAT THE CLOUDS WOULD
MOVE ON LETTING IT HEAT UP A BIT AS DIABATIC PROCESSES OVERTAKE
ADVECTION WHICH WE FIGURE WOULD BE RATHER SMALL TO BEGIN WITH.
FORECASTING LITTLE CHANGE TO TEMPERATURE AS POPS FALL TO SLIGHT
CHANCE DURING THE DAY AND ISOLD/NEAR ZERO AT NIGHT. RETURN FLOW
RECOVERY STILL POSSIBLE BY SUNDAY OR MONDAY.

ENSEMBLE PLOTS INDICATE A TIGHTLY BOUND SET OF SOLUTIONS IN THE 4 TO
7 DAY RANGE. THINKING IS THAT IT HAS GONE BACK TO PERSISTENCE WITH
THE DIURNAL SEABREEZE SETUP. HOWEVER...IT IS RATHER LOOSE IN THE
NEARER TERM POSSIBLY BECAUSE OF UNCERTAINTY WITH THE PROGRESS OF THAT
TROUGH.

.MARINE...LIGHT TO MODERATE SOUTHWEST WIND THROUGH THE PERIOD...SEAS
AROUND 2 TO 3 FEET. SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS CONVECTIVE COVERAGE OVER
THE MARINE ZONES WITH ISOLATED HIGHER WINDS AND WAVES THEREIN.

.FIRE...NO CONCERNS.

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     76 89 76 89 / 20 40 10 40
PENSACOLA  76 88 77 88 / 20 50 10 40
DESTIN     78 86 78 86 / 20 50 20 40
EVERGREEN  71 89 73 90 / 20 50 10 40
WAYNESBORO 73 91 73 91 / 30 50 20 40
CAMDEN     71 90 71 90 / 30 50 10 50

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

99/

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-041700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
535 AM CDT MON AUG 4 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH...COMBINED WITH A
DEEPLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WILL LEAD TO THE CONTINUED
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT.

WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...A FEW STORMS COULD
PRODUCE WINDS GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH WHICH...GIVEN THE OVERLY SATURATED
GROUND CONDITIONS...COULD BLOW DOWN A FEW TREES IN ISOLATED
OCCURRENCES.

STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES WHICH COULD
RESULT IN SOME POWER OUTAGES AND DANGERS TO THOSE IN OUTDOOR
ACTIVITIES.  THE STRONGER STORMS WILL ALSO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS
TOTALING NEAR 2 INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN A GOOD POSSIBILITY ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  A WEAKENING FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE
SOUTH TO NEAR THE COAST THURSDAY...AND STALL JUST OFFSHORE BY
FRIDAY.  DRY AIR BEHIND THE FRONT MAY RESULT IN DIMINISHED COVERAGES
OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE INLAND AREAS BY FRIDAY.

OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGER AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE
REQUIRED FOR SEVERE WEATHER PURPOSES TODAY AND TONIGHT.