Severe Thunderstorm Warning 240, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
256 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2003

.SHORT TERM...UPPER ANALYSIS SHOWS A LONGWAVE TROF ANCHORED OVER THE
CENTRAL U.S. WITH SHORTWAVE ENERGY TRACKING ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH
THRU ITS BASE.  THIS AND STORM OUTFLOWS HAVE RESULTED IN SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS AFTERNOON STORMS PUSHING SE ACROSS THE INTERIOR SECTIONS...
WHILE THE SEA BREEZE HAS STORMS FURTHER SOUTH.  EXPECT THESE STORMS
TO CONVERGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES...THEN SAG SOUTH TOWARD THE
COAST THRU THE EVENING.  WILL HOLD ONTO SCATTERED POPS THIS
EVENING...THEN ISOLATED AFTER MIDNIGHT.  EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIKELY POPS FOR THURSDAY AS MODELS SHOW A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
PUSHING FURTHER SOUTH THRU THURSDAY NIGHT.  AS THIS FEATURE PUSHES
EAST ON FRIDAY AND DRIER AIR BEGINS TO FILTER IN FROM THE W-NW...
EXPECT SCATTERED POPS WITH SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE OVER THE EASTERN
AND FL COASTAL ZONES ON FRIDAY.  A WARM/DRIER WESTERLY MID LEVEL
FLOW SHOULD PROVIDE SOME CAPPING OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT A SUSPICIOUS
NW FLOW ALOFT AND A MOIST SWLY SURFACE FLOW WILL WARRANT LOW CHANCE
POPS (30%) THRU THE WEEKEND.  GUIDANCE TEMPS ARE VERY CLOSE AND
SIMILAR TO PERSISTENCE...SO WONT STRAY FAR THERE.

.EXTENDED...WILL SHOW SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED EVENING
POPS THRU THE EXTENDED.  HOWEVER...EXPECT A WARM WLY MID LEVEL FLOW
TO PROVIDE CAPPING AND HOLD MONDAY POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY.
THEN RAIN CHANCES SHOULD INCREASE SLIGHTLY THRU THE WEEK AS THE
LOW-MID S-SWLY FLOW DEEPENS AREA MOISTURE WHILE ANOTHER CENTRAL
U.S. UPPER TROF BECOMES MORE ACTIVE AND TRIES TO PUSH ANOTHER
FRONTAL BOUNDARY INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

.MARINE...LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE W TO SW FLOW WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH SEAS HOLDING AROUND 2 FEET.  SHORTWAVE
ENERGY WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORM COVERAGE OVER THE
BAYS AND NEAR SHORE WATERS ON THURSDAY.  GRADIENT/WINDS MAY RELAX A
BIT MORE OVER THE WEEKEND AS WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE EAST
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS.

.FIRE...NO CONCERNS AT THIS TIME.

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...
MOBILE     73 88 74 90 / 30 60 30 50
PENSACOLA  74 88 75 89 / 30 60 30 50
DESTIN     76 87 77 88 / 30 60 30 50
EVERGREEN  70 88 71 90 / 40 60 40 50
WAYNESBORO 70 88 71 90 / 40 60 40 40
CAMDEN     70 88 71 90 / 30 60 40 40

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

39/12

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-301700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...INTERIOR
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...NEAR THE COAST THIS MORNING...
WILL DEVELOP AND EXPAND IN COVERAGE INLAND BY LATE MORNING. THE
STRONGEST STORMS WILL OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON DURING MAXIMUM HEATING.
SOME OF THE STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE FREQUENT LIGHTNING...GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND HEAVY RAIN. THE PROBABILITY FOR WIDESPREAD
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS LOW HOWEVER THROUGH TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE...MOSTLY FROM THE
LATE MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENINGS. NO WIDESPREAD HAZARDOUS
WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGER AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE
REQUIRED FOR SEVERE WEATHER PURPOSES TODAY.

ALZ051>056-MSZ067-075-076-301900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1245 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER WASHINGTON...CONECUH...
MONROE...CLARKE...WILCOX...CHOCTAW...PERRY...GREENE AND WAYNE
COUNTIES...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING ALONG AND NORTH OF A RICHTON...CHATOM...GROVE HILL LINE.
THE STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE EAST-SOUTHEAST AT
AROUND 10 MPH THROUGH 200 PM.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THIS STORM ARE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO NEAR 40
MPH...SMALL HAIL...DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND HEAVY RAIN.

ALTHOUGH BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THIS STORM COULD DOWN SMALL TREE LIMBS
OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. FREQUENT CLOUD
TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN
COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING...FLOOD PRONE
AREAS.

ALZ051>053-MSZ067-302100-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
204 PM CDT WED JUL 30 2003

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS WASHINGTON...CLARKE
AND WAYNE COUNTIES...AND WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN CHOCTAW COUNTY
THROUGH 400 PM...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDING FROM JUST SOUTH OF GROVE HILL...TO NEAR
CHATOM...TO NEAR WAYNESBORO.  THESE STRONG STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO
MOVE EAST AT AROUND 15 MPH THROUGH 400 PM...AFFECTING AREAS IN AND
AROUND...HAWTHORN...ST STEPHENS...SUNFLOWER...AND  WAGARVILLE.

THE PRIMARY THREATS FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND GUSTS TO
NEAR 45 MPH...SMALL HAIL...FREQUENT DANGEROUS LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

ALTHOUGH BELOW SEVERE LIMITS...THESE STORMS COULD DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS OR BRANCHES AND BLOW AROUND UNSECURED SMALL OBJECTS. FREQUENT
CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES ARE LIKELY...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN COULD RESULT IN BRIEF PONDING OF WATER AROUND LOW LYING...FLOOD
PRONE AREAS.