Severe Thunderstorm Warning 185, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
245 AM CDT MON MAY 19 2003

UPPER LOW AS SEEN BY SATELLITE LOOPS AND LATEST RUC DATA OVER EAST
CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI. UPPER LOW SHOULD CONTINUE TO DRIFT SOUTH TO
SOUTH SOUTHEAST TODAY AS UPPER RIDGING CONTINUES FROM TEXAS INTO THE
MIDWESTERN CORN BELT. THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST AREA IN FAVORED
QUADRANT FOR CONVECTION AND HEAVY RAINS. RAIN WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING
OVER THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE AND ADJACENT ALABAMA COUNTIES AT FORECAST
TIME...MAY NEED TO ADJUST PRELIMINARY POPS UP TO CATEGORICAL ALONG
THE COAST FROM MOBILE TO OKALOOSA COUNTY. ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH HEATING...COOLER AIR ALOFT IN VICINITY OF
UPPER LOW AND SEA BREEZE CONVERGENCE. WILL EXTEND FLASH FLOOD WATCH
THROUGH TODAY FOR THE COASTAL COUNTIES. ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH
TONIGHT AS EFFECT OF UPPER LOW AND LOSS OF HEATING TAKE OVER.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON SHOULD SEE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AGAIN AS
SEA BREEZE KICKS IN AND ATMOSPHERE REMAINS SOUPY.

MARINE...ONSHORE FLOW TO CONTINUE UNTIL TUESDAY NIGHT WHEN COLD
FRONT ARRIVES. NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER
OF THE WEEK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FIRE...TOO WET AND TOO MOIST...DRIER AIR AND NORTHERLY WINDS BEHIND
THE FRONT BY MID WEEK

EXTENDED...WILL REMOVE RAIN FROM THURSDAY...SHOULD BE DEEP INTO THE
DRIER AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT. IF THE SURFACE LOW DEVELOPS OVER
SOUTH GEORGIA NORTH FLORIDA AS ADVERTISED BY THE GFS...IT WILL HELP
TO PUSH THE DRIER AIR IN.

11/

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...

MOBILE     83 71 86 69 / 80 30 50 40
PENSACOLA  83 72 83 71 / 90 30 50 40
DESTIN     83 73 82 73 / 90 30 50 40
EVERGREEN  83 68 84 67 / 80 30 50 40
WAYNESBORO 82 71 83 66 / 50 30 50 40
CAMDEN     83 69 83 67 / 60 30 50 40

.MOB...
AL...FFA TODAY ALZ061>064.
FL...FFA TODAY FLZ001>006.
MS...NONE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-181700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL...UPDATED...
645 AM CDT SUN MAY 18 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES THROUGH
TONIGHT. A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DRIFT SOUTHWARD
OVER MISSISSIPPI. SOUTH AND EAST OF THIS LOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED. DUE TO DRY AIR IN THE
MIDDLE LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND GOOD SURFACE BASE INSTABILITIES
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.  LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT.

ALSO...DUE TO THE SLOW MOVEMENT WITH THESE THUNDERSTORMS LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINFALL CAN BE EXPECTED. RAINFALL TOTALS UP TO 2 TO 4 INCHES
PER HOUR WILL BE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THESE STORMS ESPECIALLY DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR LOCALIZED FLOODING TO OCCUR
WILL BE OVER COASTAL AREAS OF ALABAMA AND THE EXTREME WESTERN
FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA BEACHES WILL
ALSO CONTINUE TODAY. SWIMMERS ARE ADVISED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO
FLAGS POSTED ALONG BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY AS A WEAKENING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF
THE LOUISIANA COAST. OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.