Severe Thunderstorm Warning 173, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
517 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003

...QUICK UPDATE TO ADD PATCHY FOG TO EASTERN ZONES...SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE...

REST THE SAME...
LATEST SFC MAP SHOWS LOW PRESSURE CENTERED OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS
WITH TRAILING FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXTENDING SOUTH AND THEN WEST OVER
EASTERN AND CENTRAL TX. TO THE E AND NE BLOCKING RIDGE CONTINUES TO
BUILD SOUTHWARD AS MID TO UPPER RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS MUCH OF THE
EASTERN U.S. KEEPING DEEP LOW TO THE W...EVENTUALLY TURNING SOUTH
AND WEAKENING...AS PROGGED...TAKING A SOUTHERN TRACK ACROSS COASTAL
LA THEN SOUTH INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF BEFORE FILLING INTO A WEAK
TROF. AS THIS SYSTEM NEARS THE COAST ON SUN INCREASED LIFT AND
MOISTURE EAST OF THE CENTER WILL ALLOW FOR BETTERED RAIN CHANCES
MOSTLY OVER WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE CWFA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATEST SOUNDINGS NEAR THE CENTRAL COAST CONTINUE TO SHOW LIMITED
MOISTURE IN THE LOW TO MID LAYERS WITH PWS AROUND 1.2 IN. SUGGESTING
MAYBE BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLE IN THE SHORT TERM OR THROUGH MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT...THEN BECOMING BETTERED DEVELOPED BY EARLY SUNDAY
ESPECIALLY TO THE WEST.

LATEST MODEL SOLUTIONS DIFFER SOMEWHAT WITH THE TRACK OF THIS LOW
WITH THE ETA TAKING THIS SYSTEM EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWFA
THROUGH 00Z MON. BELIEVE AS SFC RIDGE ALONG THE EAST COAST BUILDS
SOUTHWARD DEEP LOW WILL EVENTUALLY TURN SOUTH LEADING ME TO BELIEVE
THE GFS SOLUTION OVER THE ETA. WITH THIS WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS SW AL AND NWFL TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED
POPS OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF SE MS. FOR SUN AS DEEP LOW NEARS THE
COAST INCREASED MOISTURE ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS WILL ALLOW FOR
BETTER CONVERGE FOR MOST AREAS IN THE CWFA...BEGINNING BY EARLY
AFTERNOON CONTINUING THROUGH ABOUT 06Z MON. LATER IN THE PD RIDGING
CONTINUES TO AMPLIFY FROM THE EAST AND NORTHEAST GIVING WAY TO A
CONTINUED DRY PATTERN THROUGH TUE FOR MOST OF THE AREA. BY WED
MIDDAY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM NEXT S/W MOVING ACROSS THE CENTRAL
AND EASTERN CONUS WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CWFA DISSIPATING BEFORE
IT REACHES THE COAST. WITH WEAK SFC FEATURE IN PLACE BY MIDWEEK AND
CONTINUED FLOW FROM OFF THE GULF RAIN CHANCES WILL LIKELY INCREASE
ACROSS THE  REGION BY MIDWEEK AS A SERIES OF WEAK MIDLEVEL IMPULSES
ALSO TRACK EASTWARD ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH.

MARINE...WINDS UP A BIT FROM YESTERDAY...LIKELY A REFLECTION OF
INCREASED RIDGING TO THE EAST AND LOW CENTER NEARING FROM THE WEST.
BELIEVE THIS PATTERN WILL HOLD THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEKEND GIVING
WAY TO SLIGHTLY HIGHER WINDS AND SEAS THAN EARLIER ANTICIPATED. AT
THIS TIME NO ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED.

FIRE...NO CONCERNS.

/32

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...
MOBILE     89 74 84 72 / 10 20 60 20
PENSACOLA  87 76 85 73 / 10 10 50 30
DESTIN     85 76 84 74 / 10 10 50 30
EVERGREEN  90 71 87 69 / 10 20 60 30
WAYNESBORO 89 71 83 68 / 40 40 70 20
CAMDEN     90 70 86 67 / 20 20 60 30

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-171700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
430 AM CDT SAT MAY 17 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

A DEEP AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER WESTERN ARKANSAS WILL DRIFT SOUTH
TO THE LOUISIANA COAST THROUGH SUNDAY. AS THE LOW NEARS SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME BETTER DEVELOPED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION. DUE TO CONTINUED DRY
AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE COMBINED WITH MARGINALLY
HIGH INSTABILITIES AT THE SURFACE SOME THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE STRONG
TO SEVERE...ESPECIALLY OVER INLAND SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST
MISSISSIPPI. LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL
BE THE MAIN THREAT.

THERE WILL BE A MODERATE RISK FOR DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ALONG AREA
BEACHES TODAY. SWIMMERS ARE ADVISED TO PAY CLOSE ATTENTION TO FLAGS
POSTED ALONG BEACHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED
ACROSS MUCH OF THE CENTRAL GULF REGION ON SUNDAY. LARGE
HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT. A STRONGER WEATHER SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE AREA BY
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.  OTHERWISE...NO HAZARDOUS OR SEVERE WEATHER
IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION FOR SEVERE WEATHER
OPERATIONS SHOULD NOT BE NEEDED.