Severe Thunderstorm Warning 149, NWS Mobile, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
210 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

FOR THE CURRENT PACKAGE...BIGGEST PROBLEM WILL BE PRECIP
TIMING...WITH SEVERAL SYSTEMS CREATING MULTIPLE SURFACE BOUNDARIES
ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN CONUS.
HELPING THINGS ALONG IS AN UPPER PATTERN WITH MORE WIGGLES THAN A
HULA DANCERS CONVENTION...WITH A SERIES OF SHORTWAVES PASSING
THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. ATMOSPHERE PRETTY MOIST...WITH THIS
EVENINGS UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS SHOWING PRECIP H20 LEVELS OF 1.1-1.3
ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TO 1.4-1.6 OVER THE I-20 CORRIDOR.
THESE LEVELS EQUATE TO 110-170% OF NORMAL. CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER THE
AREA WAS INITIATED FROM OUTFLOWS FROM LAST NIGHTS ACTIVITY OVER AR.
COMBINED WITH WARMER/MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN EXPECTED...THESE
STORMS HAVE GOTTEN A BIT MORE ROWDY THAN EXPECTED THAN YESTERDAY
MORNING. LAST EVENINGS SOUNDING FROM SURROUNDING OFFICES PUT CAPE
VALUES IN THE 3500-3900J/KG LEVELS OVER THE AREA THIS PAST EVENING.

THROUGH THE SHORT TERM...ETA IS HANDLING CURRENT ACTIVITY OVER AR/LA
AND TX BETTER THAN NGM/GFS...SO AM GOING TO LEAN TOWARDS THE ETA THE
FIRST COUPLE OF PERIODS. THIS MEANS THAT SERIES OF SHORTWAVES WILL
CONTINUE TO PASS INTO SUNDAY...AND WITH WARM SOUPY
CONDITIONS...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TODAY.
ETA IS ADVERTISING MORE OF AN AFTERNOON EVENT FOR US...WITH OUTFLOWS
FROM AR ACTIVITY HITTING NORTHWESTERN SECTIONS OF THE FA EARLY
AFTERNOON. HAVE A FEELING ACTIVITY WILL BE GOING SOONER...IN THE
LATE MORNING HOURS.

FOR THE REST OF THE SHORT TERM...ACTIVITY LOOKS TO TAPER OFF SUNDAY
INTO EARLY MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHING THE FA LATER
MONDAY...THOUGH PRELIM GFS DATA STALLS IT TO OUR NORTHWEST.

LOOKING AT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL...SINCE I WILL LIKELY GO ABOVE ETA
MODEL SURFACE T MOST AREAS(RESULTING IN A MORE UNSTABLE ETA)...DO
EXPECT MORE STRONG STORMS AGAIN TODAY. ETA MODEL SOUNDINGS FOR THIS
AFTERNOON ARE SHOWING A MORE SATURATED SOUNDING...WITH AFTERNOON WET
BULB ZEROS IN THE 10-11K RANGE. DO EXPECT VERY HEAVY RAINS WITH THE
STRONGER STORMS WITH SOME HAIL...A FEW GETTING INTO THE LARGE
CATEGORY. WIND STRUCTURE IS VERY WEAK...WITH STORM VELOCITIES IN THE
15 TO 20KT RANGE TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST. AM GOING TO PUT IN HEAVY
RAIN WORDING.

IN THE EXTENDED...LITTLE TIME TO ANALYZE DUE TO ONGOING WEATHER...SO
LITTLE CHANGE OTHER THAN TO BLEND.

MARINE...GENERALLY LIGHT SOUTHWEST TO WEST FLOW WILL TRANSITION TO
SOUTHERLY SUNDAY...STRENGTHENING MONDAY AS SYSTEM MOVES OVER THE
PLAINS.

FIRE...HUMID AIRMASS WILL REMAIN PUT THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WEAK WEST
TO NORTHWEST TRANSPORT WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO SOUTHERLY SUNDAY AS
CARIBBEAN HIGH RE-ASSERTS ITSELF IN COMBINATION WITH SYSTEM
APPROACHING AREA LATER MONDAY.

16/MILLER

.PRELIMINARY TEMPS / POPS...
MOBILE     87 68 87 69 86 / 50 10 00 00 20
PENSACOLA  86 68 86 70 84 / 50 10 00 00 20
DESTIN     81 70 82 71 81 / 50 10 00 00 20
EVERGREEN  86 64 88 65 85 / 60 20 00 00 20
WAYNESBORO 87 65 89 68 84 / 60 20 00 00 20
CAMDEN     87 63 89 66 84 / 60 20 00 00 20

.MOB...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.

ALZ051>064-FLZ001>006-MSZ067-075-076-078-079-031700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
545 AM CDT SAT MAY 3 2003

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR INLAND SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.

.DAY ONE...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY.  THE STORMS WILL BE STRONGEST IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS THE
SUNSHINE INCREASES ATMOSPHERIC INSTABILITY...FORMING ALONG AND SOUTH
OF A STALLED COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTH MISSISSIPPI AND
ALABAMA.  AS THE STORMS FORM...THEY WILL MOVE GENERALLY FROM
THE NORTHWEST TO THE SOUTHEAST.  THE PRIMARY CONCERN WITH ANY SEVERE
STORMS TODAY WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS.

BOATERS PLANNING A DAY ON THE WATER ALONG THE ALABAMA...NORTHWEST
FLORIDA COAST SHOULD KEEP AN EYE OUT TO THE WEST AND NORTHWEST FOR
THE APPROACH OF DARK...THREATENING CLOUDS.  BOATERS CAN BECOME
EASILY TRAPPED ON THE WATER BY STORMS MOVING OFFSHORE...BLOCKING THE
WAY TO SAFE HARBOR.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...(SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY)

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

DUE TO THE ISOLATED NATURE OF THE EXPECTED SEVERE STORMS TODAY...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.