Severe Thunderstorm Warning 78, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
302 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

 .DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT...STORMS PUSHING INTO INTERIOR SECTIONS AT MID
AFTERNOON IN SYNOPTIC SW FLOW WITH LAKE BREEZE BOUNDARIES HELPING TO
FOCUS ACTIVITY. A FEW CELLS ALSO FORMED CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST AND
ARE PUSHING OUFLOWS INTO THE INTERIOR AT MID AFTERNOON. COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY OF STORMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE HEADING TOWARD DINNER TIME
WITH SEA BREEZE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCURRING. ATMOSPHERE
REMAINS UNSTABLE AND THE COOL/DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT SHOULD LEAD TO A
FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PUSH ACTIVITY BACK ACROSS THE EAST
COAST THIS EVENING.

TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...GUIDANCE MODELS CONTINUE TO ILLUSTRATE
THE SAME SYNOPTIC PICTURE WITH THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS MOVING ACROSS
CENTRAL FLORIDA AND INTO NORTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. EXPECT THE WIND
FLOW TO BACK AROUND TO THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST AS THE RIDGE AXIS
SLIDES NORTHWARD UP THE PENINSULA. POPS WILL DROP BACK TO MORE CLIMO
VALUES OF 30/40 PERCENT AS STABLE ATLANTIC OCEAN AIR WORKS ITS WAY
IN FROM THE EAST. EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FORMATION AND PENETRATION
INLAND WILL BE THE PRIMARY TRIGGER FOR LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON
CONVECTION ALONG THE COAST AND EAST/WEST COAST. A LOT DEPENDS ON THE
TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF TD #6.

SUNDAY AND MONDAY...
CURRENT THINKING DOES NOT CHANGE FROM THE MID SHIFTS...SURFACE RIDGE
AXIS OVER GEORGIA ON SATURDAY STARTS SHIFTING SOUTH AGAIN SUNDAY AND
IS OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA MONDAY. EASTERLY WINDS VEER TO THE SOUTH BY
MONDAY. AGAIN...FCST DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK AND DEVELOPMENT OF TD #6.

.MARINE...WEATHER BUOYS RECORDING WINDS 10 KNOTS OR LESS AND 1 TO 2
FOOT SEAS. WITH THE RIDGE AXIS MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE EAST
CENTRAL FLORIDA COASTAL WATERS THE WINDS SHOULD STAY 15 KNOTS OR
LESS AS THEY BACK AROUND TO THE SOUTH THEN EAST BY FRIDAY WHEN THE
RIDGE AXIS IS WELL NORTH OF OUR COASTAL WATERS.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB BB 074/091 075/092 073 67443
MCO BB 074/091 075/092 074 67342
MLB BB 076/090 075/092 074 67443
VRB BB 075/090 075/092 074 67443

.MLB...NONE.

GLITTO/WIMMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
212100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
640 AM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

.DAY ONE...THROUGH TONIGHT...

A SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS
SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA THIS AFTERNOON
...WHICH WILL LINGER INTO THE EARLY EVENING ALONG THE COAST. THE EAST
COAST SEA BREEZE WILL ALSO FORM OVER THE SPACE AND TREASURE COAST
COUNTIES BY EARLY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN PINNED NEAR THE EAST COAST
ALL DAY. A FEW STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG IT AS IT...WHILE COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY INCREASES LATE IN THE DAY AS THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE
PUSHES EASTWARD THROUGH THE INTERIOR AND INTO THE COAST COUNTIES.
INLAND. STORM COVERAGE AND INTENSITY WILL INCREASE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AS THE WEST COAST BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTERACTS
WITH STORMS AND OUTFLOWS NEAR THE EAST COAST.

THE RELATIVELY COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ALOFT WILL MAKE CONDITIONS
FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER...FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE
LIGHTNING...AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. MOVE INDOORS QUICKLY AT THE
FIRST SIGN OF A STORM. STAY INSIDE UNTIL 30 MINUTES PAST THE LAST
THUNDER IS HEARD TO AVOID THE LIGHTNING DANGER.

ALSO...STORMS WILL MOVE A LITTLE MORE QUICKLY TO THE NORTHEAST TODAY
AT 15 TO 20 MPH...BUT WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS AS THEY PASS. THIS MAY LEAD TO BRIEF PONDING OF WATER ON
ROADS...INTERSECTIONS AND PARKING LOTS. MINOR POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING
IS ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RECENT
HEAVY RAINS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...SCATTERED STORMS
ARE EXPECTED EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO SELF ACTIVATE IF ANY WARNINGS ARE
ISSUED FOR THEIR COUNTY. RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
...HAIL...HIGH WINDS...WIND DAMAGE OR FLOODING...TO THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

CRISTALDI

FLZ044>046-144-211945-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
259 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WINDS UP TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY...WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...WESTERN SEMINOLE
COUNTY...

AT 3 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORMS SOUTHWEST OF THE FLORIDA TURNPIKE NEAR
MASCOTTE AND SOUTHWEST OF CLERMONT CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WINDS
OF 50 MPH AND SMALL HAIL OVER MASCOTTE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 TO
20 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL SPREAD ACROSS LAKE COUNTY AND THE METRO
ORLANDO AREA AND SEMINOLE COUNTY BY 5PM. RESIDENTS SHOULD BE ALERT
TO THE APPROACH OF THESE STORMS AND HEAD INDOORS AS THEY APPROACH.

IF THE STORM STRENGTHENS FURTHER...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

HAGEMEYER

FLZ045-212045-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
359 PM EDT MON JUL 21 2003

...STRONG STORMS WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER ORANGE COUNTY...

AT 356 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LIGHTNING DETECTION
EQUIPMENT INDICATED A STORM WITH EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING OVER MAGIC
KINGDOM...MOVING EAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF THE LIGHTNING STORM INCLUDE BAY HILL...PINE
CASTLE...BELLE ISLE AND DOCTOR PHILLIPS AND BY 430 METRO ORLANDO.
THIS STORM WILL ALSO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH AND SMALL
HAIL AS WELL AS HEAVY DOWNPOURS DURING AFTERNOON RUSH HOUR.

IF YOU ARE OUTDOORS...TAKE SHELTER IN A BUILDING OR ENCLOSED
AUTOMOBILE. TREES AND OPEN SHELTERS FOUND ON A BEACH OR GOLF COURSE
OFFER NO PROTECTION.