Severe Thunderstorm Warning 75, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
202 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

.DISCUSSION...
THROUGH TONIGHT...CONVECTION FORMING ALONG THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE
AT MID AFTERNOON AND ISOLATED CELLS ALREADY GETTING STRONG ON THE
WEST COAST BOUNDARY AS IT PUSHES INLAND. ACTIVITY SHOULD INCREASE IN
COVERAGE AND INTENSITY HEADING INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW CELLS TO GET STRONG TO SEVERE. ACTIVITY WILL
PUSH BACK ACROSS THE EAST COAST THIS EVENING WITH SOUTHWEST
COMPONENT TO STEER A LITTLE STRONGER IN THE NORTH THAN THE SOUTH.
PLAN TO HAVE SCATTERED POPS IN FOR THIS EVENING ALL AREAS AND WILL
FINE TUNE WITHIN THIS CAT (30-50%) AS TRENDS INDICATE.

SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT IN
DEPICTING THE POSITION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH RIDGE AXIS OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE THROUGH THE FORECAST CYCLE. DID NOTICE ON
THE MODELS THAT GO BEYOND THE 120 HOURS ON AWIPS (AVN/GFS) THAT THE
RIDGE AXIS STAYS AROUND LAKE OKEECHOBEE OR SOUTH. THIS SHOULD KEEP
MOST OF THE CWA IN A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW. TWO IMPORTANT
ITEMS...MAX TEMPERATURES AND LOCATION/TIMING DIURNAL CONVECTION AND
SEA BREEZE FORMATIONS. IN THE DAYS 2 THROUGH 5 GRIDS TRIED TO DEPICT
A SEA BREEZE FROM MELBOURNE SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. NUDGED DAYTIME
MAX TEMPERATURES A DEGREE ABOVE GUIDANCE SINCE CLIMATOLOGICALLY A
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL PUSH EAST COAST TEMPERATURES ABOVE NORMAL.
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT SHOULD DROP TEMPERATURES TO AROUND OR A
DEGREE OR TWO BELOW CLIMO.

FRIDAY AND SATURDAY...THE WESTERN EXTENSION OF THE BERMUDA HIGH/S
RIDGE AXIS STAYING TO OUR SOUTH AND KEEPS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN
GENERALLY THE SAME PATTERN OF DIURNAL CONVECTION.

MARINE...WEATHER BUOYS RECORDING LIGHT SOUTH WINDS AND 3 FOOT SEAS
AT BUOY 010 WHILE BUOY 009 WAS RECORDING LIGHT NORTHEAST WINDS AND 2
FOOT SEAS. EXPECT THE SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO REMAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE STATE. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS BEYOND A FEW MILES OF
THE COAST OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. THE SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
SHOULD LIMIT DAILY SEA BREEZE FORMATION FROM COCOA BEACH SOUTH.

PRELIMINARY CCF NUMBERS...
DAB TT 074/091 072/090 072 67353
MCO TT 074/092 072/092 073 67353
MLB TT 074/090 072/091 073 67353
VRB TT 073/090 072/091 073 67353

.MLB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

GLITTO/WIMMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
192000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1032 AM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS REMAINS IN PLACE ACROSS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. ABUNDANT EARLY SUNSHINE HAS OCCURRED THIS MORNING AND
IS ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO HEAT UP RAPIDLY. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS BY MIDDAY...AND A FEW STORMS
MAY DEVELOP ALONG IT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS IT DRIFTS SLOWLY INLAND.
THE SEA BREEZE WILL FORM A LITTLE LATER TO THE NORTH AND REMAIN
CLOSER TO THE EAST COAST. STORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE HIGHEST
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS AS THE WEST COAST
BOUNDARY MOVES ACROSS THE PENINSULA AND INTERACTS WITH STORMS AND
OUTFLOWS ALONG THE EAST COAST BOUNDARY.

ALL STORMS TODAY WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING SO
MOVE INDOORS QUICKLY AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A STORM. STAY INSIDE UNTIL
30 MINUTES PAST THE LAST THUNDER IS HEARD TO AVOID THE LIGHTNING
DANGER. ALSO...STORMS MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS THEY MOVE
NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. THIS MAY LEAD TO FLOODING OF STREETS AND
OTHER LOW LYING OR POORLY DRAINED AREAS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN INTERIOR SECTIONS WHERE HEAVY RAINS OCCURRED FRIDAY NIGHT.

A FEW STORMS MAY BECOME STRONG OR MARGINALLY SEVERE...PRODUCING
WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 60 MPH...HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF A QUARTER...
AND FREQUENT TO EXCESSIVE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS ARE FORECAST TO OCCUR EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TO THE NWS OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

GLITTO

FLZ041-045-046-141-192200-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
503 PM EDT SAT JUL 19 2003

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
WESTERN ORANGE COUNTY...WESTERN SEMINOLE COUNTY...SOUTHWEST VOLUSIA
COUNTY...

AT 459 PM...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT
BOUNDARIES FROM THE EAST AND WEST COASTS WERE ABOUT TO COLLIDE NEAR
INTERSTATE 4 FROM DELAND...TO SANFORD AND LONGWOOD.

THIS IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO THE RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS...SOME
OF WHICH MAY BECOME SEVERE AND PRODUCE LARGE HAIL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING BETWEEN ABOUT 530 PM AND 630 PM.  STORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED
TO INTENSIFY IN THE ORLANDO AREA AFTER 6 PM.

PERSONS WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SHOULD PLAN TO MOVE INSIDE A STURDY
STRUCTURE AT THE FIRST SIGN OF DEVELOPING STORMS.

RL