Severe Thunderstorm Warning 66, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

CURRENT...BKN-OVC MID DECK AT 12-15KFT COVERS A GOOD PART OF CWA
THIS MORNING. 12Z RAOBS ACROSS CENTRAL FL SHOW A SATURATED LAYER
ABOVE H60 (TBW) AND H50 (XMR)...SUPPORTING THESE CLOUDS. NOTHING
MORE THAN FEW SPITS OF VIRGA FALLING OUT OF THEM HOWEVER. ADAS MESO
ANLYS SHOWS SURFACE RIDGE AXIS BISECTING THE CWA WITH A WEAKENING
H50 RIDGE BEING ERODED BY THE ERN CONUS LONG WAVE TROUGH...AND AN
ERN GOMEX/NW CARIB H30-H20 RIDGE PROVIDING ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT.

FCST...PROBLEM FOR TODAY WILL BE AFFECT OF CLOUDS ON TEMPS/POPS.
CURRENT ZFP HAS 40 NORTH/30 SOUTH DISTRIBUTION. OVER THE LAST FEW
VIS SATELLITE FRAMES...THERE DOES SEEM TO BE SOME EROSION OF THE MID
DECK...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTH....WHERE CLOUDS WERE THINNER TO
BEGIN WITH. MY THINKING IS THAT THERE WILL BE INCREASING BREAKS OF
SUN BY THIS AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR ENOUGH INSOLATION/
INSTABILITY TO REALIZE SCATTERED POPS ACROSS THE CWA. LAKE OKEE
INTERACTION MAY BE ENOUGH TO RESULT IN SIMILAR COVERAGE SOUTH...SO
MAY NUDGE NUMBERS UP THERE...HOWEVER THE GIST OF THE FCST (SCT POPS)
WILL REMAIN UNCHANGED.

.MARINE...WITH RIDGE AXIS NEARBY...S TO SE WINDS AOB 10KT WITH A
1-2FT WIND CHOP AND AN UNDERLYING 2FT GROUNDSWELL. CWF IS RIGHT ON
TOP OF THIS. NO CHGS.

.MLB...NONE.

CRISTALDI/BRAGAW

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
122100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
630 AM EDT SAT JUL 12 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY...

MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY LEVELS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SCATTERED
LIGHTNING STORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. STORMS WILL
INITIALLY DEVELOP AROUND MID DAY NEAR THE EAST COAST AS THE
ATLANTIC SEA BREEZE FORMS. SCATTERED STORMS WILL PERSIST OVER THE
COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHILE ADDITIONAL STORMS
INCREASE IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF MELBOURNE AND LAKE KISSIMMEE. STORM
MOTION WILL BE SLOW AND ERRATIC...BUT GENERALLY FAVORING AN INLAND
PUSH...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF MELBOURNE AND LAKE KISSIMMEE.

AS COOL AIR BOUNDARIES INTERACT THIS AFTERNOON...A FEW STORMS MAY
BECOME STRONG AND PRODUCE LOCALIZED WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH...HEAVY
RAINFALL...AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING. ON AVERAGE...
LIGHTNING KILLS MORE PEOPLE EACH YEAR THAN TORNADOES. MOVE QUICKLY
TO A SAFE SHELTER IF LIGHTNING STORMS APPROACH.

ALONG THE VOLUSIA AND BREVARD COUNTY BEACHES...THERE WILL BE A
GREATER THAN NORMAL THREAT FOR RIP CURRENTS TODAY DUE TO A SMALL
SWELL AND THE APPROACHING FULL MOON PHASE. RIP CURRENTS TEND TO BE
MOST NUMEROUS AND STRONGEST DURING THE OUTGOING TIDE...WHICH WILL
OCCUR THIS MORNING AND AGAIN THIS EVENING. REMEMBER TO ALWAYS SWIM
WITHIN SIGHT OF A LIFE GUARD.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...SCATTERED LIGHTNING
STORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON. STORM
COVERAGE WILL BE A LITTLE HIGHER OVER INLAND AREAS...ESPECIALLY
DURING THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ASKED TO RELAY ANY REPORTS OF SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER TO THE NWS OFFICE IN MELBOURNE.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

SPRATT