Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
125 PM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

.DISCUSSION...A FEW SHOWERS WITH OCCASIONAL LIGHTING STRIKES WERE
NOTED OVER BOTH THE COAST WITH INCREASING DEVELOPMENT OVER INTERIOR
LOCATIONS AS WELL. LIGHT WINDS OVER THE INTERIOR WILL LEAD TO
BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS HELPING TO PRODUCE ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND
STORMS THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON.

TONIGHT...EXPECT SOME EVENING CONVECTION ACROSS THE INTERIOR AND
WITH SLIGHT WLY COMPONENT STEERING FLOW MAY ALLOW A FEW SHOWERS TO
DRIFT BACK TWD THE EAST COAST NEAR NRN VOLUSIA COUNTY. WILL KEEP 30
PCT FOR LAKE AND 20 PCT FOR INTERIOR SECTIONS THIS EVENING.

WED/THU...SURFACE RIDGE REMAINS OVER CENTRAL FL WITH LIGHT
ENVIRONMENTAL FLOW. FAVORABLE SETUP FOR COASTAL BREEZE WITH
ADDITIONAL BOUNDARY INTERACTIONS FAVORING SCATTERED STORMS MAINLY
OVER THE INTERIOR DURING THE AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW 500 MB RIDGE
WILL SLOWLY BREAK DOWN BY THURSDAY AS A SHORTWAVE MAKES PROGRESS
INTO THE SOUTHEAST FROM THE MID LATITUDES. MAY SEE EAST/WEST COAST
BOUNDARY COLLISION AGAIN JUST WEST OF THE KISSIMMEE RIVER AND
NORTHWARD INTO LAKE COUNTY. HIGHS WILL ONCE AGAIN BE IN THE 90S AREA
WIDE.

LATE IN WEEK...SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF STRONG TROPICAL WAVE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL DEFINED FEATURE. GLOBAL
MODELS NAMELY UKMET/AVN/CANADIAN MOVE SYSTEM WWD IN DEEP ELIES THE
NEXT 2 TO 3 DAYS WITH A PROJECTED PATH ACROSS THE YUCATAN AT DAY 3.
DEEPER MOISTURE ASCD WITH SYSTEM LOOKS TO REMAIN SOUTH OF THE AREA
THROUGH THE PERIOD BUT SYSTEM MAY SLOW OVER BAY OF CAMPECHE THIS
WEEKEND AND WEATHER MAY BECOME INFLUENCED BY ENVELOPE EARLY NEXT
WEEK. OTHERWISE WILL CONTINUE WITH CLIMO TEMPS AND POPS FOR EXTENDED
PERIOD.

.MARINE...GENERAL FLOW WILL REMAIN AOB 10 KNOTS WITH SEAS 3 FT OR
LESS...EXCEPT FOR DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY STRONGER ONSHORE FLOW WITH
DAILY SEA BREEZES. AS SURFACE HIGH SAGS TOWARDS SOUTHERN PORTION OF
CWA BY LATE IN THE WEEK...WINDS WILL VEER TO STRONGER S/SSW
COMPONENT MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPE FRI NIGHT.

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DAB BB 073/090 073/090 075 23232
MCO BB 074/093 074/093 074 23232
MLB BB 075/090 075/090 075 12132
VRB BB 074/090 075/090 075 12132 44

.MLB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

PENDERGRAST/WIMMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
082100-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
11 AM EDT TUE JUL 8 2003

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON...

THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MOVE SLOWLY INTO THE INTERIOR
COUNTIES DURING THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP NEAR INTERSTATE 95 THEN DEVELOP OVER INTERIOR
INTO THE EVENING AS THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY MOVES INLAND.

ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP LATE TODAY ACROSS
INTERIOR SECTIONS OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AS THE WEST COAST SEA
BREEZE MOVES INLAND TOWARD THE KISSIMMEE RIVER AND LAKE COUNTY.

STORMS THAT DEVELOP WILL MOVE SLOWLY THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL TEND TO
PROPAGATE INLAND WITH THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. THESE STORMS MAY
PRODUCE BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKES AND
WIND GUSTS TO 40 MPH. MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A DEVELOPING
STORM TO AVOID THE LIGHTNING DANGER.

TEMPERATURES WILL REACH 93 TO 95 DEGREES ACROSS INLAND SECTIONS OF
EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA WITH HEAT INDICES REACHING NEAR 105 DEGREES. IF
YOU SPEND LONG PERIOD OUTDOORS...REMEMBER TO TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
AND DRINK PLENTY OF WATER.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY...SCATTERED
AFTERNOON STORMS WILL OCCUR EACH DAY...WITH STORMS MAINLY AFFECTING
NORTHERN AND INTERIOR AREAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

JP