Severe Thunderstorm Warning 59, NWS Melbourne, FL

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
300 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

.DISCUSSION...15Z (11AM) CAPE SOUNDING CONTINUES TO SHOW LOTS OF
MOISTURE (1.87 PCP WATER) WITH SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 15 KNOTS THROUGH
10K FT. AS MENTIONED IN THE LATE MORNING AFD...DOWNBURST WINDS AND
VERY HEAVY RAIN ARE THE THREATS TODAY. AND IN FACT...VRB GUSTED TO
37 MPH JUST B4 NOON WITH AN INCH OF RAIN IN ONE HOUR. EXPECT SIMILAR
WIND GUSTS AND RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN A FEW ADDITIONAL INTERIOR
LOCATIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING AS THE EAST COAST BREEZE MOVES
INLAND.

GFS AND ETA SHOW THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTING NORTH SLIGHTLY ON FRI TO N
FL. THIS WILL PRODUCE A MORE EASTERLY (AS OPPOSED TO SE) WIND BEHIND
THE SEA BREEZE. GFS ALSO SHOWS SOME DRIER AIR ROTATING IN FROM THE
SE AROUND THE BERMUDA HIGH. THIS IS WHY THE MAV POPS ARE
SIGNIFICANTLY LOWER. MET POPS ARE HIGHER BUT THE ETA TENDS TO HAVE A
WET BIAS HERE IN FL SO WILL FOLLOW THE MAV.  SHOULD SEE A RETURN TO
MORE TYPICAL CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SAT (40%) AS ATM MOISTENS BACK UP.
THE LOW LEVEL RIDGE AXIS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT SOUTH SAT AND THE
RESULT WILL BE VERY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THE SEA BREEZE
WILL BRING A REFRESHING BREEZE TO THE COAST BUT INTERIOR SECTIONS
MAY FIND IT OPPRESSIVE WITH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S AND DEWPOINTS IN
THE LOWER 70S WITH LITTLE WIND.

RIDGE AXIS IS FORECAST TO SHIFT TO S FL SUN AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS
IN THE EASTERN U.S. AND A WEAK FRONT PUSHES INTO THE CAROLINAS AND
GA. THE IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER WILL BE A MORE SE FLOW BEHIND THE SEA
BREEZE WITH INCREASING MOISTURE AND CHANCE OF RAIN...VERY SIMILAR TO
THE SET-UP WE HAVE HAD YESTERDAY AND TODAY. THIS PATTERN SHOULD
PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT TO OUR NORTH. THIS WOULD KEEP THE RIDGE AXIS
ACROSS S FL WITH A WARM MOIST SOUTH/SOUTHWEST FLOW ACROSS THE AREA.

.MARINE...WIND DIRECTIONS WILL BE DICTATED BY POSITION OF LOW LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE E SOUTHERN LEG FRI AS RIDGE AXIS
DRIFTS NORTH. RIDGE AXIS WILL BE SUPPRESSED SOUTHWARD AGAIN THIS
WEEKEND BRINGING A RETURN TO THE SE FLOW BY SUN. WIND/WAVES EXPECTED
TO BE BELOW ANY HEADLINE CRITERIA.

PRELIM...
DAB BB 073/089 073/089 073 28232
MCO BB 073/091 073/092 073 28332
MLB BB 074/088 073/089 073 28231
VRB BB 074/088 073/088 073 28231=

.MLB...WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

KELLY/WIMMER

AMZ550-555-570-575-FLZ041-044>047-053-054-058-059-064-141-144-147-
122000-

EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
540 AM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

.DAY ONE...TODAY:

MOISTURE HAS INCREASED OVER EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA AND THE ATMOSPHERE
WILL DESTABILIZE AS HEATING OCCURS. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS WILL
DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH CENTRAL FLORIDA TODAY. THE SEA BREEZE WILL
FORM OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES BY LATE MORNING...THEN GRADUALLY GET
ESTABLISHED FARTHER NORTHWARD DURING THE AFTERNOON. AFTER A FEW
MORNING COASTAL SHOWERS OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS...STORMS WILL START TO
FORM ALONG THE SEABREEZE BY MIDDAY. STORM COVERAGE WILL INCREASE OVER
THE INTERIOR SECTIONS THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON AS THE EAST AND WEST
COAST BOUNDARIES DRIFT INLAND. STORMS WILL DRIFT BACK TO THE EAST
COAST THIS EVENING...MAINLY NORTH OF COCOA BEACH.

STORMS TODAY MAY PRODUCE VERY HEAVY DOWNPOURS...WITH RAIN RATES NEAR
TWO INCHES AN HOUR LEADING TO FLOODING OF STREETS AND LOW LYING
AREAS. ADDITIONALLY...STORMS MAY PRODUCE FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND
LIGHTNING. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY
WINDS AROUND 40 MPH. BE READY TO HALT OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES SUCH AS
SWIMMING AND GOLFING AND MOVE INDOORS AT THE FIRST SIGN OF A STORM.
MANY LIGHTNING CASUALTIES OCCUR WELL BEFORE OR AFTER THE RAIN IS
OVERHEAD. BOATERS SHOULD TAKE SAFE HARBOR WELL IN ADVANCE OF STORMS.

LATE DAY COMMUTERS SHOULD BE CAREFUL FOR SLICK ROADS WITH STANDING
WATER IN SPOTS FROM THE STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY:

THE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MEANDER ACROSS CENTRAL AND
NORTH FLORIDA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN
SUFFICIENTLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE FOR SCATTERED SHOWERS AND LIGHTNING
STORMS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY.

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...GO TO
WWW.WEATHER.GOV AND CLICK ON EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA.

GLITTO

FLZ045-053-122000-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
314 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

...STRONG STORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH OVER
EASTERN ORANGE AND EASTERN OSCEOLA COUNTIES...

AT 310 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM CHRISTMAS
SOUTH TO THE BEELINE EXPRESSWAY...TO HOLOPAW AND LAKE KISSIMMEE.
MOVEMENT IS NORTH NORTHEAST AT JUST 5 MPH. THESE STORMS ARE BEING
ENHANCED BY THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. TORRENTIAL RAINS OF AN INCH
OR MORE PER HOUR...WIND GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH AND EXCESSIVE LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS. STAY INDOORS UNTIL THE
STORMS HAVE PASSED.

IF ANY STORM BECOMES SEVERE...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.

28

FLZ147-122015-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
335 PM EDT THU JUN 12 2003

...STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH OVER
NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY...

AT 330 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
LINE OF STORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG WIND GUSTS ALONG THE ST
JOHNS RIVER...ENTERING NORTHERN BREVARD COUNTY FROM EASTERN ORANGE
COUNTY. MOVEMENT IS NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH. TORRENTIAL RAINS OF ONE
INCH PER HOUR...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING
STRIKES ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE STORMS. RESIDENTS IN MIMS...
TITUSVILLE...PORT ST. JOHN AND CANAVERAL ACRES SHOULD KEEP AN EYE TO
THE WESTERN SKY AND SEEK SHELTER IF THREATENING WEATHER APPROACHES.

IF ANY STORM BECOMES SEVERE...A WARNING WILL BE ISSUED.